Experts say that as the world’s largest importer of agricultural products, Beijing is unlikely to achieve its ambitious goal of significantly reducing external food procurement for the next decade due to constraints on land, soil, and water resources.
According to a document released by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the end of April, the government expects the self-sufficiency rates for main grains and beans to reach 92% by 2033, higher than the 84% during the period of 2021-2023.
The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that in the next ten years leading up to 2033, corn imports will decrease by 75% to 6.8 million tons, wheat imports will decrease by 60% to 4.85 million tons, and soybean imports will drop by 21% to 78.7 million tons.
Reuters reports that China’s newly established goals for the next decade are in stark contrast to the 87% surge in grain and oilseed imports seen in the past ten years, with little practical basis for achieving these objectives.
Five analysts and industry executives point out that China will struggle to meet its goals primarily due to a lack of land and water resources.
According to estimates by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China’s corn imports are projected to remain roughly the same by 2033, wheat imports to decrease by 20%, and soybean imports to increase by 39%.
The USDA further predicts that the growth in demand for animal feed (the main users of soybeans and corn) will surpass the growth in China’s domestic corn production, leading to an increase in sorghum and barley imports.
The estimates by the USDA are widely recognized as a global agricultural forecasting institution and a key reference for major research and investment institutions.
Despite its large population, China has a relatively small per capita arable land area. The change in dietary patterns due to urbanization and a decrease in the number of farmers in recent years has made China increasingly reliant on imports to feed its people. In the event of a war with Taiwan, food supply would become a major concern in China’s wartime economy.
In April 2020, the CCP Politburo meeting first proposed the concept of “guaranteeing food and energy security” as one of the “Six Guarantees.” In 2022, the CCP’s 20th Congress introduced the idea of “solidifying the foundation of food security comprehensively,” followed by the Central Economic Work Conference advocating for the implementation of a new round of actions to increase food production capacity by hundreds of billions of kilograms. The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized that ensuring stable and secure supply of food and major agricultural products is always a top priority in building a strong agricultural nation.
According to Wang Hongguang, director of the China Food and Food Safety Research Center at China Agricultural University, China’s self-sufficiency rate for food is at 86%, while the implicit self-sufficiency rate for food is only 70%.
The team led by Du Ying, former Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, calculated China’s food self-sufficiency rate using different methods, showing that over the past 20 years, it has dropped from around 100% to about 76%, with an average annual decline of more than one percentage point. They estimate that by 2035, the overall food self-sufficiency rate may further drop from the current level of around 76% to about 65%.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations sets the global food security standard at a self-sufficiency rate of 90%.
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, China faces the risk of disruptions in its food supply chain. Additionally, challenges like the ongoing US-China trade war (the US being the second-largest agricultural product supplier after Brazil) and severe weather conditions affecting China’s wheat harvest in 2023 have exacerbated this situation.
In April 2024, Beijing initiated a plan to increase food production by at least 50 million tons by 2030, focusing on upgrading farmland and investing in seed technology to enhance crop yield and quality.
In 2023, Beijing expanded the planting area of uncultivated land and encouraged farmers to shift from cash crops to staple foods, leading to increased production of corn, soybeans, potatoes, and oilseeds.
Despite being the world’s second-largest corn producer and achieving a record corn yield of 288.84 million tons last year, China’s imports surged to nearly a record 27.1 million tons. This is because traders prefer overseas corn, which is often of higher quality and cheaper.
Reported by official Chinese media, challenges in increasing China’s food production include insufficient arable land, small-scale production, and a lack of farmers and agricultural technology.
World Bank data from 2021 shows that China’s per capita arable land area is less than one-third of Brazil’s and one-sixth of the United States’.
The CCP’s soil survey found that 40% of arable land in China has degraded due to excessive use of chemicals and heavy metal contamination.
By converting sand into soil and cultivating salt-tolerant crops, China aims to develop more farmland. Industry experts argue that this strategy not only requires time but also significant investment in fertilizers, irrigation, and biotechnology. This presents a daunting task for China’s already strained agricultural investments.
The average farm size in China is 0.65 hectares, compared to 187 hectares in the US and 60 hectares in Germany.
To increase yields, Beijing is turning to genetically modified crops, approving the planting of high-yield, pest-resistant corn and soybean varieties, as well as genetically edited disease-resistant wheat in 2024.
China’s soybean yield per hectare is 1.99 tons, lagging behind Brazil’s and the US’s 3.38 and 3.4 tons per hectare, respectively, from genetically modified soybeans.
However, analysts point out that Beijing’s goal of reducing soybean imports is unrealistic. Carl Pray, an agricultural professor at Rutgers University, told Reuters that almost all soybeans in China are high-protein varieties used for tofu production. To replace imports, there would need to be rapid expansion in the production of high-yielding oilseed varieties for cooking oil.
Pray mentioned that even with research in this area, achieving the goal would be challenging.
“To produce enough soybeans to replace imports from Brazil and the US, there’s not enough land,” Pray said.
Soybeans were the largest agricultural import in 2023, totaling $234 billion.