Amidst the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a trending topic on Chinese social media is the concept of “historical garbage time.” Analysts suggest that “garbage time” is closely linked to the trend of “lying flat,” and the rigid conservatism and lack of focus seen at the Third Plenary Session reflect the collective inability of the senior CCP leadership, potentially becoming the fuse for a “great depression.”
In recent days, the term “historical garbage time” has been circulating on Chinese social media. According to a report by Voice of America, based on unofficial interpretations, “historical garbage time is an economic concept proposed by the (famous Austrian) economist Mises, referring to an era that severely deviates from the natural laws of economic development, where individuals are powerless to change its course, inevitably leading the entire era towards failure.”
Another widely circulated folk saying presents the relationship between “historical garbage time” and the concept of “lying flat” – “When history enters garbage time, you will see various major dramas such as buildings collapsing, giant wheels toppling, lies exposed, myths shattered, and so on. The wise choice is to lie flat, watch the show, and wait for garbage time to pass.”
The buzz around “historical garbage time” comes at the time of the Third Plenary Session. Commentator Huang Yu wrote in an article for Voice of America that while the Beijing propaganda machine criticizes the younger generation’s lying flat mentality and the concept of “garbage time,” CCP Premier Li Keqiang sent out a recent and highly indicative “lying flat” signal – referring to “consolidating the foundation and cultivating excellence” at the Summer Davos Forum a month ago.
The article suggests that collective lying flat has become routine within the CCP system, with local officials either remaining inactive or resorting to extortion in the face of various catastrophic events such as unemployment, bankruptcy, droughts, and floods that the public is grappling with.
“Faced with the mistakes and failures of the past decade, the economic bureaucrats have eliminated the mediocre, unable to propose any practical and effective economic strategies.”
The four-day Third Plenary Session of the CCP began on July 15 at the Jingxi Guesthouse in Beijing, with more than 300 central committee members and alternate members in attendance. The key agenda of the meeting is the so-called “further comprehensive deepening of reforms and advancing Chinese-style modernization.”
Party media outlet “Qiushi Net” emphasized “self-confidence and self-reliance” on the 15th. Xinhua News Agency touted CCP leader Xi Jinping as a “reformer” in a special feature of over ten thousand words, but the article was taken down on the 17th, and Xinhua’s website had no coverage of the Third Plenary Session on its front page.
Huang Yu stated in the article that the collective lying flat of the senior CCP leadership implies another danger, which is the complete lack of focus on the agenda of the plenum, completely ignoring international directives related to excess production capacity, and continuing to advance nationalist economic goals with an “assertive and self-reliant” attitude.
“On July 15, the latest keynote article published by ‘Qiushi Net’ emphasizes ‘self-confidence and self-reliance,’ making it seem as if the serious issues facing people outside Beijing – economic depression, recent violent attacks on foreigners, and the issue of contaminated cooking oil that have stirred public sentiment – are no longer relevant.”
“It appears as though the severe problems, crises, and conflicts in Chinese society currently do not exist, with CCP leaders downplaying the serious international challenges and internal corruption highlighted in the recent Yan’an Military-Political Conference.”
Huang Yu mentioned in the article that all signs indicate that the authorities in Beijing are afraid of the real crisis within the senior CCP leadership – the fundamental issue of political inertia, namely the collective lying flat within the CCP, which may be exposed in this session of the Third Plenary Session.
American economist Scott Kennedy mentioned impressions from his recent visit to China, noting the tendency of “not listening, not knowing, not willing, and not caring,” forming a top-down collective lying flat.
The article suggests that this may be China’s true collective “aftermath of COVID-19.” The three years of “dynamic zero-COVID” has shattered all social contracts between the ruling elite and the people of China, as well as eroded all political impetus related to reform and opening up.
The article argues that it is only through this top-down form of “lying flat” that the outside world might predict and understand the timing and direction of the current Third Plenary Session, deciphering the real essence and direction of “self-confidence and self-reliance” and “deepening reform.”
Since the collapse of several real estate giants two years ago, seriously hampering China’s economic recovery, the CCP has been rolling out market rescue measures to no avail. Domestic demand remains weak, unemployment rates are high, enterprises are going bankrupt, and the stock and foreign exchange markets are sluggish, leaving the Chinese economy in dire straits.
The article mentions that the advisors, think tanks, and policy writers around CCP leader Xi Jinping have run out of ideas, unable to come up with policy terms supported by economic theory, as the toolbox and repository of theories in Zhongnanhai have run dry. This “intellectual poverty” is unprecedented.
On the other hand, it rather reflects the overall deterioration of the CCP economic bureaucrats since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic year and the apparent passive approach of China’s top leadership on economic policy issues.
The article suggests that the CCP’s fear of the rigidity and conservatism of the plenum reflects the incompetence of the party’s collective lying flat, potentially fueling a radical turn into a “Chinese-style great depression.”