Recently, the Chinese Communist Party announced the convening time of the 20th Third Plenary Session. Analysts believe that the meeting may involve personnel matters, including the handling of the Communist Party Central Committee positions of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, as well as confirming whether the current Minister of National Defense, Dong Jun, is a member of the Military Commission. There are also speculations that it may involve the wife of the CCP leader, Xi Jinping, Peng Liyuan.
On April 30, the CCP Political Bureau announced that the 20th Third Plenary Session would be held in July this year. The Third Plenary Session, according to CCP conventions, should have been held by the end of last year, but it had been delayed.
On May 1, Chinese affairs expert Wang He told the Epoch Times that the delay of the Third Plenary Session indicates significant internal disagreements within the CCP. The meeting will have two main focuses, the first being personnel matters, which involve Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, and other undisclosed personnel that need to be addressed.
“In reality, there has been internal handling already, but the results of the Central Committee, including alternate members, have to be confirmed and retroactively approved by the Central Assembly, merely a formality,” Wang He said.
Qin Gang has been “missing” since last June and was relieved of his duties as Foreign Minister and State Councilor in October of the same year. In February of this year, the Standing Committee of the Tianjin Municipal People’s Congress of the 18th CCP accepted Qin Gang’s resignation as a delegate to the 14th National People’s Congress. However, his specific situation has not been officially announced. There were rumors circulating on the internet about Qin Gang’s death.
Since being dismissed on the same day as Qin Gang, the status of former CCP Defense Minister Li Shangfu remains unknown. After the end of August last year, Li Shangfu has not made any public appearances. Li Shangfu was also relieved of his duties as a State Councilor. During this year’s two sessions, the spokesperson for the National People’s Congress, Lou Qinjian, revealed to the media that Li Shangfu could not attend the two sessions and was no longer a delegate to the National People’s Congress.
However, both individuals still hold Central Committee positions yet to be addressed.
Shen Mingshi, a researcher and director of the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, stated that the Third Plenary Session would address issues of party personnel, including the handling of Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, or whether Dong Jun remains a member of the Central Military Commission.
Dong Jun officially became the Minister of National Defense on December 29, 2023, succeeding Li Shangfu, who had been dismissed. However, during this year’s National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Dong Jun did not become a member of the State Central Military Commission as predicted by the outside world. Currently, his name is also not listed on the official website of the CCP military’s high-ranking personnel.
French media articles suggest that in addition to Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, there may also be personnel changes involving the wife of the CCP leader, Xi Jinping, Peng Liyuan.
On May 1, a French media article stated that the handling of Qin Gang and Li Shangfu will be brought to the table, and they will be removed from the Central Committee in some way. As for the charges against them, analysts believe that these charges should exclude any past close relationship with Xi Jinping. This issue, according to analysts, may already be settled, and the significance lies in the hidden major personnel matters behind it. Earlier, Peng Liyuan made a high-profile research trip in Hunan, leading to speculations about whether she will take on an important role. Some analysts also believe that Xi Jinping has unusual concerns about security issues. Despite holding power comparable to Mao Zedong, surrounded by confidants, the fewer people he can truly trust. From this perspective, there is the possibility that Xi will entrust Peng Liyuan with a significant responsibility at the right time.
Hong Kong commentator Liu Ruishao speculated at the beginning of this year that the Third Plenary Session’s difficult delivery may be related to the rumored involvement of Peng Liyuan, signaling Xi’s intention to bring Peng into the CCP Political Bureau. However, in the Radio Free Asia column “Night Talks in the South China Sea,” commentator Gao Xin believes that Peng Liyuan is unlikely to quickly enter the Political Bureau, at least until the 21st Party Congress, which is expected to take place in 2027.