On July 2, 2024, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held a meeting of the Political Bureau on June 27, announcing that the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP will be held on July 15. Prior to the meeting, many observers had expressed skepticism about this conference. Renowned commentator Yan ChunHook recently analyzed that the CCP has exposed four major dangers, with the Third Plenary Session prioritizing self-preservation above all else.
Yan ChunHook criticized in a Facebook post on June 30 that the official news releases regarding the Third Plenary Session were filled with empty rhetoric, lacking any innovative ideas. Those hoping for the conference to introduce concession policies would be deeply disappointed.
The CCP Political Bureau confirmed that the theme of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is to “study further comprehensive deepening of reform, and promote issues related to China’s modernization.”
Yan ChunHook pointed out that there is no mention of “modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity” in advanced countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, or Japan. Despite the CCP’s more than seventy years in power and the numerous political and economic crises it has faced, it had never placed such a high level of attention on issues related to national governance before.
He questioned, “With the party controlling the discourse through lies for governance and the government having military force to suppress unrest, what governance problems are there?” Yan ChunHook believed that the CCP’s focus on studying national governance at the Third Plenum is an indication of the crisis in national governance. Failure to address this crisis would lead to the disintegration of the country.
Given the current domestic and international entanglements, with a bleak outlook looming over the CCP, the urgency to secure survival chances has become an imminent challenge. “How to govern a country with myriad problems, barely scraping by, has become a top priority and an urgent task.”
The article cited Xi Jinping, who openly acknowledged at a recent Political Bureau study session the “four tests and four dangers” facing the CCP. The “four major tests” include governing test, test of reform and opening up, market economy test, and external environment test; while the “four dangers” consist of the risks of mental laxity, insufficient capability, detachment from the masses, and passive corruption. Never before in CCP history has a party leader presented such a comprehensive and pessimistic view of the critical situation the party faces, offering a detailed explanation of the philosophy of self-preservation at the Third Plenary Session.
Yan ChunHook emphasized that the current situation in domestic and international affairs has never deteriorated to such a despicable state as it has for the CCP today. While past crises were manageable, the present circumstances are spiraling out of control, with uncertain depths and a bleak outlook. “At this point, self-preservation is the only choice.”
Addressing the market’s expectations for the CCP to take steps to improve the economy, Premier Li Keqiang stated on June 25 at the Summer Davos Forum in Dalian, Liaoning Province, that China’s economy “cannot resort to strong medicine” and currently needs to “consolidate the foundation and foster future growth.” However, Li Keqiang’s remark of “cannot resort to strong medicine” has been censored in mainland China.
Wang Guochen, a research assistant at the China Economic Research Institute, expressed on June 26 that Li Keqiang’s statement exposed the fact that there is no cure for China’s economy.
Yan ChunHook further explained that “foundation” refers to the basis of CCP governance while “foster future growth” relates to the essence of socialism. Once the CCP is gone, both the foundation and essence will be lost, rendering everything meaningless. Therefore, the entire significance of the Third Plenum lies solely in the two words – “stability maintenance.”
Prior to the Third Plenum, amidst the ongoing economic decline, authorities issued warnings to the party, government, and military, with the Ministry of Public Security repeatedly intervening in the economic sphere for stability maintenance. Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong mentioned on June 5 during an enlarged meeting of the Ministry’s party committee the need to “strengthen financial risk monitoring and early warning, cooperate in key areas to prevent and defuse risks in small and medium financial institutions, local government debts, real estate, and other key fields.”
On June 24, Wang Xiaohong further emphasized “stability maintenance” during a national public security agency video conference, with the primary focus being to “defend political security with all efforts.”
Leading up to the Third Plenum, the CCDI website spent three months interpreting the revision of the so-called “Disciplinary Regulations” known as “Bangui,” continuously warning party members not to speak out of turn or touch the “high-voltage lines.”
Chen Yixin, Minister of Public Security, who has been vocal in intervening in the financial sector since last year, published an article on April 29 in a Party School publication, stating that the Ministry of Public Security will launch the “Five Anti-Struggles” against subversion, hegemony, separatism, terrorism, and espionage, emphasizing the removal of “nails and internal traitors.”
Stephen Roach, former Asia Chairman of Morgan Stanley, who has been optimistic about the Chinese economy for years, expressed concerns recently after meeting with a large group of Chinese entrepreneurs. The prevailing pessimism among people before the convening of the Third Plenary Session was worrisome.
On June 23, former Inner Mongolia official Du Wen posted on an overseas platform, describing the current political atmosphere in China as extremely bizarre. The authorities’ purge of the military has further plunged it into turmoil. Economic downturn, soaring unemployment, judicial injustice, and political stupidity have led to immense social and psychological pressure on a large segment of the population, nearing the brink of collapse.
Du Wen stated that with the imminent Third Plenum, there is an overall state of emergency. The political, economic, and military upheavals in China directly reflect the rapid failure of the CCP government’s leadership and control.
Yan ChunHook expressed on Facebook that since the current Third Plenum is themed “stability maintenance,” the CCP will focus on the security of its regime moving forward. The CCP is expected to become more reactionary and ruthless, leading to a more dangerous situation in China. The Chinese people are now facing a life-and-death crisis – either continue enduring, resulting in China becoming a larger version of North Korea, or rise up in resistance, which would require significant sacrifices but offers a chance to break free from the CCP’s brutal rule.