The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has seen air raids, explosions, curfews… Since the battle of Laiza in July, there have been significant changes in the Myanmar conflict. Experts believe that the Chinese Communist Party is attempting to constrain the balance between the warring parties, but ultimately may not be able to control the situation.
On October 18, the Chinese consulate in Mandalay was attacked with a hand grenade, resulting in minor damage to the consulate building with no casualties reported. China has lodged a stern protest and urged Myanmar to thoroughly investigate the attack. It is not clear yet who is responsible for the attack, and both the Myanmar military government and democratic forces quickly condemned it.
This incident occurred as the head of the Myanmar military government, Min Aung Hlaing, is scheduled to visit Beijing, amidst a nationwide large-scale revolutionary armed resistance erupting in Myanmar. According to reports from the Kachin News Group, most of the major trade routes in the Myanmar-China border region and towns such as Laiza have fallen under the control of ethnic armed groups. The military government continues to carry out airstrikes on Laiza, resulting in over a hundred civilian casualties.
On October 20, a large number of Myanmar refugees ran to Chinese border checkpoints, seeking entry into China. Videos circulating online showed ongoing intense fighting on the Myanmar side, with gunfire erupting. Chinese border patrols closed the Tengchong-Diannan checkpoint, and the refugees later dispersed.
Bloomberg reported that the consulate explosion incident has sparked chaos in Myanmar. For decades, China (CCP) has been trying to maintain influence among the lawless ethnic armed groups in the Myanmar border regions and provide support to the country’s military leaders. The attack on the consulate indicates that this balancing act is no longer sustainable. Both sides are reportedly angered by recent actions taken under the leadership of Xi Jinping in China (CCP), putting Xi Jinping in a dilemma.
Beijing has recently intensified public contact with the Myanmar military government. As the insurgent organization’s strength grows, the CCP mediated a ceasefire in January, which collapsed a few months later. Lway Yay Oo, a spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, stated, “The Chinese government pressured us to stop fighting, not to take any aggressive actions.” Once the ethnic minority armed forces begin capturing military government positions in the south, Beijing begins using economic coercion and vague retaliatory threats to deter their advances.
Chinese dissident Fu Yifeng, who has visited Myanmar, stated in an interview with Epoch Times that the infiltration by the CCP in northern Myanmar is severe, leading to recent escalations in the situation there, including extreme nationalism protests and attacks, as well as anti-Chinese incidents, all attributed to CCP infiltration.
“There is no clear evidence indicating who is responsible for the consulate attack. It could be ethnic extremism or a tactic used by the CCP. But regardless of who carried it out, there is a high probability of political motives behind this incident. The relationship between the CCP and the Myanmar military government is like a game of balance; whichever side aligns better with the CCP’s interests, they have a good relationship with,” he said.
At the end of July, the alliance forces captured Laiza, the fourth-largest city in Myanmar and the capital of Kachin State, significantly weakening the Myanmar military in the northeast. Subsequently, the alliance forces advanced southward toward Mandalay, the second-largest city in Myanmar, which connects through roads to the capital Naypyidaw and the country’s largest city, Yangon. Analysts believe that if Mandalay falls, the Myanmar military government could face its most significant political crisis since the coup.
According to Southern Weekend, the morale of the Myanmar government forces is low, and their firepower advantage is diminishing. In the midst of intermingling enemy and friendly forces, the artillery of the Myanmar government forces struggle to provide support firepower to their infantry. Despite having air superiority and long-range artillery, the retaliatory bombing tactics of the Myanmar government forces have limited significance.
On the evening of August 5, Min Aung Hlaing admitted the failure of the battle of Laiza in a televised speech. Min Aung Hlaing specifically pointed out that there were foreign technical experts within the unmanned aerial drone unit of the Kachin alliance forces. Bloomberg reported that Min Aung Hlaing condemned unnamed foreigners for providing food, money, and other supplies to his enemies – apparently referring to China (CCP). Nationalistic supporters of the military also took to the streets to protest against so-called Chinese support to the enemy.
Fu Yifeng observed that the civil war in Myanmar has been simmering, mainly involving small-scale conflicts of ethnic armed groups. He noted that without foreign governments’ interventions such as intelligence, weapons, funding, food, tactical guidance, etc., it is challenging to see large-scale armed conflicts erupt.
“The areas currently controlled by the Myanmar government are mainly the central areas consisting of major cities like Mandalay and Yangon, but the land frequently changes hands between the military government and ethnic armed groups, with the government controlling roughly forty percent of the territory. Due to the complex terrain and numerous local forces in Myanmar, without the coordination of other major ethnic armed groups and foreign support, there is basically no chance to defeat the military government,” he said.
Commentator Li Lin, analyzing for Epoch Times, stated that Myanmar is a crucial strategic point for the CCP in Southeast Asia, with significant strategic resources on the Belt and Road Initiative that directly connects Southeast Asia to the Indian Ocean. Thus, the CCP attaches great importance to Myanmar and has always valued the Myanmar government.
“I believe that the CCP will ultimately lose control. For the CCP, it does not want the Myanmar military government to collapse completely because it is unsure of how friendly the government formed by the rebel forces will be towards the CCP. It wants to maintain a balance between the two sides, not allowing the rebel forces to be too aggressive in attacking the military government. This has led to the current unstable situation in Myanmar,” Li Lin said.
Li Lin believes that the CCP is likely observing the situation and if its interests in Myanmar are not protected, it may consider a change in government in Myanmar. However, if its interests are mostly safeguarded, it is unlikely to want the rebel forces to take over. Because the relationships between Aung San Suu Kyi and China were not as strong as those between the military government and China.
British young scholar of International Relations, Ignatius Lee, in an interview with Epoch Times, stated that the CCP is the biggest stakeholder in the Myanmar conflict but lacks influence as all parties do not trust each other. While the Myanmar military government seems to be in retreat, it still controls the main cities and infrastructure of the country. An assault on Mandalay by the anti-government forces could indeed change the tide of the war, but the outcome remains to be seen.
“If Beijing truly has influence, it should be able to mediate. Both sides in Myanmar had a ceasefire earlier this year, which was more about the need for military adjustments, not to please Beijing. The unclear stance from the CCP mainly stems from the fact that neither side in the conflict has a definitive advantage. Hence, in times of stalemate, Beijing is reluctant to take a clear stance for fear of making a wrong bet,” he added.
An anonymous user leaving a comment on the Kachin Information Network stated that the CCP does not want long-term peace and unification in Myanmar. Learning from the unification of Vietnam, they fear that a peaceful unification in Myanmar might lead it towards the West. If Myanmar remains chaotic, the CCP can exploit the country for cheap labor, energy, minerals, and more. While claiming not to interfere in other countries’ domestic affairs internationally, the CCP excessively engages in proxy wars in Myanmar. If the alliance forces consider themselves part of Myanmar, they should not compromise under CCP’s coercion and should follow the civilian government to hasten the overthrow of Min Aung Hlaing, dismantle the military regime’s governance, and achieve a truly democratic federal state.