According to sources familiar with the thinking of top Chinese Communist Party officials, it is revealed that Chinese officials are quietly preparing for Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House and the possibility of further turbulence in US-China relations.
The Chinese Communist Party is afraid of the “Golden-haired” President. On one hand, they are worried that he may turn against Russian President Putin, thus damaging the “brotherhood” between Putin and the Chinese Communist Party leader. On the other hand, they are concerned about the possibility of a trade war dealing a heavy blow to China’s fragile economy.
When Trump stepped down in 2020, the official Chinese media Xinhua News Agency posted a tweet celebrating: “Finally gone, Donald Trump!”
Although some Chinese officials mocked Trump as “Trump Builds a Country,” fearing that his presidency would accelerate political and social chaos, alienate US allies, and provide opportunities for Beijing.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, May 1st, citing sources close to the Chinese leadership, that overall they believe the risks of Trump being re-elected outweigh any potential benefits.
Various Chinese ministries, including foreign affairs, trade, investment, and technology sectors, have designated officials to serve as observers for the US election, with a focus on the Trump campaign.
During Biden’s tenure, with the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict, global geopolitical divisions have deepened, with Europe and the US on one side and China and Russia on the other.
Beijing is concerned that a Trump victory may disrupt this balance.
Sources close to the Chinese leadership have indicated that Xi Jinping’s major concern is whether Trump would disrupt his “brotherly” relationship with Putin. During his presidency, Trump had tried several times to improve relations between the US and Russia.
Xi Jinping has established a personal relationship with Putin and is worried that if Trump reaches out to Putin, it could weaken Beijing’s relationship with Moscow. Russia is a key partner for Xi Jinping in confronting the West.
Some strategic experts on China have said that even more worrisome is that Trump could attempt to turn Putin against China, which in turn could prompt Russia to confront China.
An urgent issue is whether another trade war between the US and China will erupt. Trump had mentioned that if re-elected, he might levy tariffs as high as 60% on imports from China.
Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 presidential election overturned Washington’s long-standing strategy on economic cooperation with China.
Initially, Xi Jinping did not take Trump’s tough talk seriously. However, starting in early 2018 when Trump began imposing tariffs on China, seeking to force a change in China’s state-led economic behavior, Xi Jinping retaliated each time, believing that this president with a business background would eventually back down.
This was followed by escalating tensions. During Trump’s first term, US import tariffs on Chinese goods doubled, from an average of 3% to 12%.
For a long time, Chinese rulers have been accustomed to playing the more dominant role in bilateral relations. However, they have now found themselves facing an unpredictable trading partner who is willing to use extreme measures to force concessions from China.
Attendees revealed that senior Chinese diplomat Liu Jianchao said earlier this year at a closed-door meeting with US think tanks, “We had a tough time during Trump’s tenure.”
The economic losses China suffered due to Trump’s imposed tariffs are real. Some Chinese economists believe that overall, the damage to China’s GDP from the trade war is three times that suffered by the US.
Even more damningly, Trump’s hardline stance on China was widely popular in Washington, leading to bipartisan consensus that past US engagement with Beijing had failed to make China more market-oriented.
Of course, Trump’s trade war did not fully achieve its main goals. Beijing did not meet its commitments to purchase American goods and did not make fundamental reforms to its economic policies.
Whether Trump remains tough on China and how far his policies will go largely depend on who enters Trump’s inner circle.
According to the report, senior Chinese officials are stepping up efforts to court American business leaders, inquiring about who might become members of Trump’s cabinet and attempting to have them focus on investments in China.
It is reported that Trump has already summoned former trade representative Robert Lighthizer to discuss trade policies towards China for his potential second term. Lighthizer has publicly advocated for cutting off Beijing’s access to the US market and avenues to obtain American technology and capital.
Matt Turpin, a guest researcher at the Hoover Institution and a former National Security Council official in the Trump administration, told the paper, “If Trump is re-elected, on the first day, he will inquire about China’s implementation of the phase one trade agreement. Then he will instruct Lighthizer to pick up where unfinished work was left off and continue with it.”
Alexander Gray, former national security advisor during the Trump era and deputy assistant to the president, expressed similar views in an interview with the Japanese Kyodo News earlier this month.
“I expect a lot of continuity in the second Trump term, motivating him on issues that inspired him during his first term,” Gray said.
Gray had helped shape Trump’s Asia policy during his tenure. He stated that the biggest foreign policy issue Trump will face during his second term will still be China (the Chinese Communist Party).
Gray stated that Beijing’s current trade practices are “more villainous than before,” so “I definitely think that tariffs (on China) will increase significantly, possibly up to 60%.”
Furthermore, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the Trump era has expressed openness to joining a second Trump administration. Pompeo posted a photo on social media last week saying he sent Chinese Embassy a few copies of his memoir “Never Back Down” in Chinese translation for President Xi Jinping.
Sun Yun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center, told the paper, “Beijing believes that if Trump returns to the White House, the room for the rise of US-China relations will be blocked, and the downward trend will be bottomless.”
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement, “Regardless of who is elected the next US president, we hope that the US side can work with the Chinese side,” and “We firmly oppose anyone bringing up China issues for election purposes.”