Analysis: Public Protests Brewing Societal Volcano, Endangering CCP Regime

With the Chinese economy becoming increasingly bleak, ranging from salary cuts to downgrading consumption, all aspects of Chinese social life are experiencing comprehensive downgrades, sparking scattered protests across the country, posing a threat to the Communist regime.

Recently, the American non-profit organization “Freedom House” released the latest data through its subsidiary, “China Digital Monitor” (CDM), showing that the second quarter of 2024 recorded 805 dissent events, an 18% increase compared to the same period in 2023, with the majority of events being protests related to labor (44%) and housing (21%).

Researchers indicate that despite strengthened censorship by authorities, the number of recorded protest activities continues to rise, with statistics in June soaring to record levels.

Since data collection began in June 2022, CDM has documented a total of 6,300 dissent cases.

This report reflects the dissatisfaction among the Chinese populace across different regions, highlighting the economic challenges facing the ruling Communist Party, which could potentially evolve into broader governance issues.

Analysts believe that many property owners or farmers tend to resort to protests rather than legal means, as China’s legal system tends to favor local governments and businesses, making pursuing legal avenues costly and largely futile for individuals.

At a social risk seminar held in an eastern city in China last year, officials claimed that while street protests decreased compared to the epidemic period the year prior, online protest activities were on the rise. These actions mostly “do not involve politics” and lack coordination but are driven by “social sentiment.”

Officials acknowledged that perceptions of inequality between the rich and the poor, and between officials and the public, are widespread. Public sentiment is very fragile, especially when avenues for expressing anger are limited, and conflicts between officials and the public have become increasingly prevalent.

With a decline in economic growth over the past forty years, protests are not limited to wage claims by migrant workers and property owners. The middle class is more affected by the uncertainties and lack of confidence resulting from the shift in political and economic policies.

China’s social structure has undergone significant changes from the wave of civil servants-turned-entrepreneurs in the late 1980s and early 1990s to the current trend of returning to government jobs and state-owned enterprises. State-owned sectors are getting stronger, leading to the gradual decline of the private economy represented by internet technology, real estate, and educational support.

The number of traditional white-collar positions that private enterprises can offer is also decreasing significantly, leading to a phenomenon where white-collar employees transition to blue-collar positions, while blue-collar work intensifies, making job hunting even more challenging for college graduates.

From the financial industry, tech companies, and state-owned enterprise employees to civil servants, teachers, doctors, military personnel, and police, salary cuts are becoming widespread, leading to a comprehensive downgrade in various aspects of Chinese social life.

What further diminishes people’s confidence is that the policy signals given by the Chinese Communist Party so far continue to prioritize strengthening the Party at the expense of the people through the “New Qualitative Productivity” plan. Despite proposing schemes to stimulate consumption and benefit the people during multiple economic meetings, the Party has consistently refused to transfer cash benefits to the public, with the focus of encouraging consumption aiming at getting ordinary citizens to spend more rather than increasing incomes.

Alongside the economic downturn, there is a strengthening control by the Communist Party over the entire society. Practices that seemed unthinkable in previous years, such as the Mao-era experiences and the resurrection of the “Department of Social Work,” are now becoming increasingly prevalent, resembling a new era of the Cultural Revolution.

In a normal society, media, courts, non-governmental organizations, and religious beliefs can serve as channels to vent social emotions. However, under Communist Party rule, these institutions either do not exist at all or have all become stability maintenance mechanisms, leaving individuals unable to dispel feelings of pessimism and despair.

From 2018 to 2023, internet searches related to mental health on the Chinese search engine Baidu saw an average annual growth rate of 35%. In 2023, searches on Bilibili, a Chinese video-sharing website, relating to anxiety, depression, and stress relief solutions surged by 224%.

This year, mainland China has also witnessed several random killings targeting not only Chinese but also Americans and Japanese. Online users have highlighted a series of violent incidents in Shenyang recently, with at least 9 incidents occurring after July 2, resulting in at least 9 deaths and multiple injuries.

Perpetrators are increasingly becoming younger. In March this year, a student who had failed his exams drove into a group of students in Taizhou, Zhejiang, causing three deaths and injuring sixteen.

According to the “2023-2024 Report on Mental Health and Industry Insights,” the top three psychological issues the public most wants to address in the past year are “anxiety,” “sense of meaninglessness,” and “depression,” with the sense of meaninglessness making its debut in the top three, reflecting the current loss of goals and values in Chinese society.

Wei Zhen, a former mainland Chinese media person who spoke to the Epoch Times under a pseudonym, shared, “I have a friend who worked hard to become a civil servant, managing the petition office at the court. His job was to report all petitioners to the police before the two sessions, restricting their movements. I also know someone who, after becoming a civil servant, watches his boss drink Moutai with bottled water every day.”

“When you study so hard, only to find that the work you do is meaningless, or even highly unethical, and you are supervised by these particularly corrupt officials who had lower education levels than you when they were younger, the harm to young people is considerable.”

Many Chinese choose to escape the situation by leaving the country. Alex, a student studying in the United States, tells the Epoch Times that under the Communist Party’s governance, mainland China is no longer suitable for human survival and reproduction. If Xi Jinping is to assume a lifelong leadership position, the situation in China is likely to worsen in the coming decades without any signs of improvement.

The sporadic economic protests in different regions of China are mainly driven by economic grievances and generally do not touch on political issues. A nationwide movement akin to the “White Paper Revolution” is unlikely to materialize. However, an undeniable fact is that during this process, the public has started to realize that the Communist Party system is the root cause of economic disasters.

For several decades, as China’s economy rapidly grew, many believed that making money was all that mattered, regardless of the Communist Party system. After enduring three harsh years of epidemic lockdowns, people are now realizing that even their economic autonomy is not in their hands in China. The Party allows wealth accumulation only when deemed suitable, leaving individuals with no choice if the Party decides to retract it.

On social media, netizens continuously delve into the core issue of the Communist Party system.

One netizen asks: Why is the scrutiny of film and television productions so strict when food safety supervision falls short? The answer: Unsafe food harms us, while unsafe films and TV harm them.

Another netizen writes: Things that have been proven unsuccessful by numerous people, some still insist on clinging to. This shows that what they seek is not civilization but self-interest!

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recently released evidence of inequality, indicating a significant shift in the Chinese people’s psyche. The number of individuals who believe they can change their destiny through their abilities and efforts is decreasing. The Communist system has become the target of public protests.

Wu Se, a researcher at the Cross-Strait Policy Association in Taiwan, told the Epoch Times that the current social issues in China are closely related to the country’s economic development and governance model.

“In the early stages of the reform and opening up, the economic achievements might have led the Chinese people to believe that economic openness was more critical than political reform, showing a great degree of tolerance towards politics. However, as economic development continues to decline, societal dissatisfaction may gradually turn towards questioning the political system constructed by the Chinese Communist Party.”

He said that since the end of the epidemic up till now, the policies put forward by the Chinese (Communist) government have shown limited economic effects. If the CCP chooses to expand its suppressive measures, using increasingly hardline tactics, leading to a vicious cycle, it might bring about more uncertainties for their future political authority.