Before the third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), set against the backdrop of ongoing economic decline, Beijing is filled with a sense of pessimism. Authorities have issued warnings to party, government, and military members, with public security stepping in to stabilize the economy. Foreign media have indicated that this upcoming third plenary session is expected to prioritize politics over the economy. Analysts believe that the CCP is facing an overall crisis as the third plenary session approaches, signaling a moment of comprehensive collapse.
The 20th Central Committee’s third plenum, originally scheduled for last autumn, was repeatedly delayed due to differing opinions among senior CCP members on personnel and economic issues, only confirmed to be held in July of this year in April. As the meeting date approaches, tensions in Beijing are visibly rising.
On June 24, CCP Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong emphasized “stability maintenance” during a nationwide video conference with public security agencies, highlighting the top priority as “fully safeguarding political security.”
Since 2024, the Chinese economy has not performed as expected. Insiders have revealed that expectations for the third plenum have gradually turned from anticipation to skepticism, even hopelessness.
Stephen Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, who previously claimed “Hong Kong is finished,” published an article on June 13 titled “Resignation Bordering on Despair,” stating that both Beijing and Hong Kong have lost their original enthusiasm and the spirit of “just do it to succeed,” replaced by a passive resignation to fate. The younger generation, in particular, is facing increasing despair over the future.
Roach said, “Before the third plenum convenes, this phenomenon is worrying.”
On April 22, the State Council of the CCP conducted a special study session on the capital market, with Wang Xiaohong, responsible for public security, delivering a speech. In terms of financial security and capital market issues, the previously hidden CCP National Security Bureau has also been increasingly vocal since last year.
The Chinese real estate market continues to be in crisis, with Wang Xiaohong mentioning during an expanded meeting of the CCP Public Security Committee on June 5 the need to “strengthen financial risk monitoring and early-warning, in coordination with key areas of risk prevention and control and resolution in small and medium financial institutions, local government debt, real estate, and other critical areas.”
The recent retroactive tax investigation of some companies by the CCP’s tax authorities has sparked social panic. Many regions have already set up “Joint Tax Security Operations Centers,” indicating public security intervention in retrospective tax investigations.
On May 28, CCP leader Xi Jinping met with four members of the Politburo Standing Committee and police representatives. In May 2019, Xi Jinping made a similar speech at a meeting attended by only two members of the Politburo Standing Committee, Wang Huning and Han Zheng.
Regarding the military, on June 17, Xi Jinping held a national political conference in Yan’an, stating that “complex and profound changes are occurring in the world, in China, in the Party, and in the military,” emphasizing that the CCP’s armed forces face complex political tests and that the control of weapons must always remain in the hands of “loyal and reliable individuals.”
A group of military leaders promoted by Xi Jinping have fallen from grace since last year, leading many experts to believe that Xi Jinping’s military leadership is facing a crisis.
In the officialdom, 27 officials at the vice-ministerial level and above have been investigated and detained since the beginning of this year, greatly exceeding the number of 17 during the same period last year. After assuming office, current Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Secretary Li Xi has disciplined 86 centrally managed cadres (vice-ministerial level and above) since taking on the role, nearly double the number disciplined by his predecessor Zhao Leji during the same period.
Before the third plenum, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection website spent three months interpreting the “Disciplinary Measures of the Party”, commonly known as the “assistance regulations,” repeatedly warning party members not to speak out of line or touch the “red lines.”
Political commentator Chen Pokong stated in an interview with a journalist from Da Ji Yuan on June 21 that this indicates there are many voices within the CCP prior to the third plenum. After the 19th National Congress, the CCP’s political situation has become increasingly unstable, with internal disagreements, widespread division, and loss of unity intensifying.
On May 14, the CCP Ministry of Education announced the so-called “Standardized Management Year” for basic education, emphasizing political security. The directive lists 12 prohibited behaviors, with the first being “prohibiting speech or actions that oppose the Party, socialism, tarnish the image of the Party and the state, defame party and state leaders or heroic models, or splinter the country.”
On April 29, CCP Minister of State Security Chen Yixin published an article in a CCP Party School publication, stating that the Ministry of State Security must launch the “Five Anti-Struggle” against subversion, hegemony, separatism, terrorism, and espionage, emphasizing the need to firmly root out “hidden nails and internal traitors,” among other initiatives.
Recently, various regions have been monitoring people’s lives on a large scale through “community workers”, with individuals with overseas relationships being closely monitored and overseas communication being monitored. Behind this surveillance network is the Central Department of Social Work, known as the “authoritarian patch.”
The CCP has long blocked multiple economic data that are unfavorable for maintaining its political power, such as land sales, foreign exchange reserves, bond trading data, and more.
The traditional press conference with the Chinese Premier during the “Two Sessions” held for over 30 years was canceled in March 2024, indicating a further tightening of information control and a retreat in openness to the outside world.
Each session of the third plenum has typically focused on policy directions regarding the economy and reform. However, an article by Katsuji Nakazawa in Nikkei Asia on June 22 suggests that the focus of this upcoming meeting will prioritize politics over the economy.
The article compared Xi Jinping’s emphasis on the role of the market during the 18th Central Committee’s third plenum eleven years ago, ultimately concentrating power through an anti-corruption campaign. Under the party’s protective umbrella, state-owned enterprises have become even more bloated.
The article points out that there is no one like Li Keqiang in Xi Jinping’s third term attempting to counterbalance him, nor is there a successor in economic matters to continue China’s longstanding policy of reform and opening up. If there are clues about the direction of economic policy during this year’s third plenum, they should be viewed from a political perspective.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, on June 11, Xi Jinping chaired the fifth meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening of Reforms, one of which included “improving the modern corporate system with Chinese characteristics”. The authorities have claimed to promote “separation of the government from enterprise” while also emphasizing “strengthening party leadership” and wanting to “perfect the institutional mechanisms for the party’s leadership of state-owned enterprises,” as well as focusing on the private sector to “pay attention to the role of party building leadership.”
Independent commentator Cai Shinkun expressed his views on X Platform on June 11, stating that such conflicting statements appearing frequently at high-level CCP meetings indicate that there will unlikely be significant breakthroughs on deepening reform during the third plenum scheduled for July.
Veteran political economist Wu Jialong from Taiwan previously told Da Ji Yuan that the CCP authorities do not have effective solutions to the economic challenges, and the hope for reigniting economic growth has essentially been abandoned, instead focusing on maintaining political power. “Originally, the third plenum was supposed to discuss economic issues, but now security has replaced development, and stability maintenance and risk prevention are more important than investment.”
On June 23, former Inner Mongolian official Du Wen published a post on an overseas platform, stating that the domestic political atmosphere is extremely bizarre, with the economy continuing to decline, various market rescue measures emerging successively, including the real estate market, stock market, bond market, local debt, unemployment rate, manufacturing sector, household income, migrant worker income, all showing rapid oscillations, downturns, and collapses.
The article posits that the recent round of State Council functional reforms in the CCP has resulted in an unprecedented situation of a weakened State Council and a powerful Central Party, undoubtedly leading to political upheaval. The purge of the military has plunged the army into further turmoil. The economic downturn, soaring unemployment, unfair judiciary, and political absurdity are causing widespread social psychological pressure among the masses, nearing the brink of collapse.
Du Wen stated in his article that the third plenum of the CCP is imminent, but the situation is dire across the board. The political, economic, and military upheavals in China directly demonstrate the leadership and control capacity of the CCP government rapidly failing.
In his article, Du Wen expressed that the country is losing control and the CCP is in an unprecedented and absurd state: while they spread lies, they demand the people trust them; while they block the road, they study how to clear it; while they impoverish the people, they research how to promote consumption. They destroy businesses on one end and call for job solutions on the other; they scare away investors on one side and boast about attracting investments on the other; they arrest entrepreneurs massively while loudly proclaiming to optimize the business environment… When the credibility of governance is lost, when the trust of the people is exhausted, when genuine transformation is needed.
The article asserts that the high-pressure political policies of the CCP, the sustained economic downturn, and dissatisfaction across all levels of society are accumulating. The CCP is facing its biggest comprehensive collapse since 1949.