South Korean President Yoon Seok-yuet abruptly declared martial law on Tuesday evening, only to retract the order six hours later after the parliament passed a resolution demanding the lifting of martial law. The following day, the opposition party in South Korea decided to initiate impeachment proceedings against Yoon Seok-yuet for his martial law declaration.
Some observers believe that Yoon Seok-yuet is unlikely to be impeached. The urgent task for South Korea is to prevent infiltration and threats from the Chinese Communist Party. Additionally, with the re-election of US President Donald Trump, the pro-China faction in South Korea may lose influence.
Yoon Seok-yuet announced martial law through a televised broadcast on the evening of the 3rd. He cited the disruption of national governance by the opposition party, which holds a majority in parliament and has repeatedly used impeachment and budget blockades to disrupt governance, as the reason for the emergency martial law. Yoon Seok-yuet claimed it was a necessary measure to protect the country from “communist forces” within the parliament, as well as “anti-state forces” and threats from North Korea.
Just two and a half hours after Yoon Seok-yuet issued the martial law order, 190 parliament members opposing martial law passed a resolution to lift the martial law order. Ultimately, without any casualties, the martial law forces returned to camp, and Yoon Seok-yuet retracted the martial law directive at 4:30 am on the 4th, six hours after issuing the order.
However, following the conclusion of this “lightning” martial law incident, South Korea’s largest opposition party, the People Power Party, has demanded Yoon Seok-yuet’s immediate resignation, and indicated that they will press charges of insurrection against Yoon Seok-yuet and Defense Minister Kim Long-hyun in the parliament.
Gallup Korea, a polling organization, released a recent poll on the 6th, showing President Yoon Seok-yuet’s approval rating at only 13%, the ruling People Power Party at 27%, with the People Power Party leader Han Dong-hwan at 11%; the largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, at 37%, and the Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung at 29%.
Will Yoon Seok-yuet be impeached and step down, and what impact will this have on the geopolitics of East Asia? Former Dean of the Political Warfare College at Taiwan’s National Defense University, General Yu Zong-ji, told Epoch Times that if impeachment does occur, the impact will be significant, with the US military security arrangements in the first island chain facing fundamental challenges.
General Yu Zong-ji believes that the Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung is very pro-China, and with the United States struggling to find a strong supporter of democracy and the rule of law in South Korea, if Yoon Seok-yuet is replaced by the pro-China Lee Jae-myung, it will seriously undermine the military alliance between the US, Japan, and South Korea that was painstakingly built during Yoon Seok-yuet’s term, as Lee Jae-myung would definitely cooperate with CCP demands.
“If the CCP can subvert South Korea without military confrontation by cultivating a pro-China regime, the US may be more nervous than any other country right now,” said General Yu Zong-ji.
However, Wang Zhi-sheng, Secretary-General of the Association of Chinese and Pacific Elite Exchange, told Epoch Times that impeaching Yoon Seok-yuet would be difficult, as the ruling party in South Korea has already determined to protect Yoon Seok-yuet from impeachment. Even if the opposition party has 192 votes, they will not meet the two-thirds threshold of 200 votes required for parliamentary impeachment. Whether the ruling party will show flexibility remains to be seen.
“It also depends on the public taking to the streets. When Park Geun-hye faced impeachment, it lasted for more than six months, with over a million people eventually taking to the streets. Therefore, it is necessary to observe how significant the people’s power will be this time, and whether it will eventually compel the ruling party to compromise or Yoon Seok-yuet to resign voluntarily,” Wang Zhi-sheng stated.
With the second term of US President Trump set to begin on January 20 the following year, Wang Zhi-sheng believes that pro-China factions in South Korea will have no room.
“Pro-China factions in South Korea don’t actually like the CCP, but want to be pro-China to deal with North Korea. The problem is, judging from Trump’s handling of the Korean Peninsula issue in his first term, he bypassed the CCP and South Korea to directly engage in dialogue with Kim Jong-un to stabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula. In particular, by appointing Huang Zhihan as Presidential Assistant and Chief Deputy National Security Advisor in his second term, I believe Trump will continue to bypass the CCP to seek direct dialogue for the stability of the Korean Peninsula, which will significantly reduce the influence of the CCP on the Korean Peninsula.”
Trump appointed Alex Wong as Chief Deputy National Security Advisor on November 22, stating in a press release that Wong previously served as Special Deputy Representative for North Korea and Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the State Department, assisting him in negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Furthermore, Wang Zhi-sheng noted that Yoon Seok-yuet was able to defeat Lee Jae-myung at the last minute because the South Korean people are still wary of handing over their national power to a pro-China individual.
“South Korea’s overall political atmosphere is very similar to Japan and Taiwan, with a strong dissatisfaction towards the CCP. In recent years, many businesses have withdrawn from China. So, even if a relatively pro-China political figure comes into power, their political options will be limited because the overall domestic environment and economic trends do not allow for the same level of pro-China sentiment as in the past.”
A former intelligence official who preferred to remain anonymous previously told Epoch Times that South Korea is heavily dependent on China in terms of trade and investment, a relationship that further allows the Chinese authorities to influence various other sectors in South Korea, including politics, economy, culture, and universities. Nearly 700 friendship or sister city agreements have been signed between cities in the two countries, and through state-supported civil servant exchange programs, hundreds of Chinese civil servants have been sent to work and train in South Korea.
The official also mentioned that the Chinese Embassy funds Korean youth to spend a week in China, where they are required to read collections of speeches by Chinese President Xi Jinping before departure, with the hope that they will become future leaders in the bilateral relationship.
Addressing this phenomenon, veteran commentator Tang Jing-yuan, based in the US, told Epoch Times that South Korea’s political landscape is shaped by the presence of communist ideology, particularly with the CCP’s behind-the-scenes infiltration, influence, interference, and division initiatives. This has transformed the power balance between the executive and legislative branches in a democratic system into a silent, invisible struggle between two ideologies.
Tang Jing-yuan stated that Taiwan’s political environment is indeed similar to South Korea, with both leaning towards responding assertively to the CCP – the ruling government being more anti-CCP and the opposition being more pro-CCP. However, overall, the Taiwanese people are more aware of the CCP’s centralized infiltration, coercion, and threats to Taiwan’s security.
He believes that South Korea should learn from the Legislative Yuan dispute that occurred in Taiwan in May this year, which led to a large-scale “Citizens Defend Democracy” and “Reject CCP Interference” movement known as the “Azurebird Action.” This movement reflects the high level of awareness among Taiwanese citizens about safeguarding democratic institutions and countering the threat of CCP infiltration.
Tang Jing-yuan further stated that the South Korean government needs to educate the public on how to identify CCP propaganda warfare, information warfare, and perceptual warfare. South Korea is clearly lacking in this vigilance.