Last Saturday (28th), Israel announced that it had killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on the 27th. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately stated on Sunday (29th) that it opposes any actions that violate Lebanon’s sovereignty and security. Analysis believes that China’s statement is muddling right and wrong, with the fundamental purpose of preserving Hezbollah’s strength. However, Israel’s new tactic of “targeted assassinations” has put fear among Iran’s leadership, making them hesitant to escalate the conflict.
According to reports from Agence France-Presse, Israel announced on the 28th that its military had killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in an attack on the southern outskirts of Beirut on the 27th. A source closely related to the Shiite Hezbollah mentioned that the leader had been out of contact since the evening of the 27th.
Reuters reported on the 28th that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, tried to strengthen China’s image as a “creator of world peace” and called for an end to the conflict in the Middle East.
Central News Agency also reported that following the joint proposal with Brazil to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for a ceasefire in the Middle East during the United Nations General Assembly on the 28th, attempting to enhance China’s image as a “creator of world peace.”
Regarding Wang Yi’s speech at the UN, North American senior commentator Tang Jingyuan believes that China’s position is essentially muddling right and wrong.
He said that Israel’s target is Hezbollah, not the Lebanese government. China deliberately ignores this fact, aiming to use international pressure to force Israel to slow down or even stop its attacks on Hezbollah, with the fundamental purpose of preserving Hezbollah’s strength.
Another North American senior commentator, Lan Shu, also believes that China is taking sides because Hezbollah is likely facing complete destruction. At this critical moment, Wang Yi publicly calling for a ceasefire in the Middle East is, in fact, to protect Hezbollah.
Retired General Yu Zongji, former dean of the Institute of Political Warfare at Taiwan’s National Defense University, stated that for China to expand its influence into the Middle East, it must rely on these organizations to stir up trouble. This gives China leverage for further negotiations with the US, Western countries, and even Israel.
A Chinese immigrant living in Israel for over twenty years and a contributor to Voice of America, Xu Yuping, informed Epoch Times that she was not surprised by Wang Yi’s speech at the UN, as the Chinese government has always supported Palestine’s Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
According to Agence France-Presse citing the website of the Central Bank of Iran, in September 2017, a Chinese state-owned investment company, CITIC Group, provided $10 billion in loans to five Iranian banks for various infrastructure projects.
Russian news agency Sputnik reported that China is a major trading partner of Iran, intensifying investments in Iran’s oil and gas industries. Despite Iran facing economic sanctions, by the end of 2014, the trade volume between China and Iran was $52 billion, showing a 35% increase. Iran’s exports to China amounted to $28 billion, accounting for 52% of its total exports.
Xu Yuping stated, “China is actually the main financial supporter of Iran.” Rumors in mainland China suggest that Iranian oil is of the highest quality globally, leading China to heavily invest in Iran. Supporting Iran is crucial for China, or else it might struggle to recover nearly a hundred billion US dollars in debts.
According to the Associated Press, in just one week, Israel launched intense bombings on Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of seven senior Hezbollah commanders and members.
The Israeli military stated on the 29th that the previous day it struck the suburbs of Beirut with lethal attacks, killing several senior Hezbollah figures, including Nabil Qaouq, a key political and military figure in Lebanon, and “dozens” of other Hezbollah targets.
After the almost devastating blow to its close ally, Hezbollah, insiders analyze that Hezbollah is under internal and external pressure. Will they retaliate militarily with Iran, and Israel must make crucial decisions in the next 72 hours, impacting the situation’s development.
In response, Tang Jingyuan believes that Hezbollah is only a proxy for Iran, having long received comprehensive support from Iran. Still, Israel has not directly attacked Iran.
He analyzed that as some of Iran’s leaders were also eliminated alongside Nasrallah, there is a possibility of retaliatory strikes against Israel. However, the likelihood of a large-scale war escalation between the two sides is low, more likely to be a face-saving or warning move.
Yu Zongji believes that Iran is currently unlikely to engage in significant military actions as Israel’s new “targeted assassination” method has put fear among Iran’s leadership. Iran’s current position is awkward, bordering on fear, as they are reluctant to escalate the conflict further.
Lan Shu stated that Hezbollah has no humanitarian bottom line, so once terrorist attacks occur, it could cause significant casualties in Israel. Moreover, these terrorist activities may not be limited to Israel’s territory but could extend to embassies or consulates of Western countries supporting Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the death of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Nasrallah marked a “turning point in history,” indicating that Israel has “settled accounts” with those responsible for the deaths of “countless Israelis” and many foreign citizens. Does this signify the dismantling of Hezbollah, which may struggle in the future?
Tang Jingyuan believes that Hezbollah’s morale is severely hit; Nasrallah’s beheading has a profound impact as he has been the Secretary-General of Hezbollah for over 40 years, essentially building the organization. His authoritative position is irreplaceable.
Another factor is that Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah were well-prepared, debilitating their communications network and essentially dismantling Hezbollah’s entire command structure, leaving the organization leaderless and paralyzed.
Yu Zongji pointed out that Israel’s skillful “targeted assassination” operation minimized the impact, effectively wiping out the entire Hezbollah command chain.
He added, “As Hezbollah is recognized internationally as a terrorist organization, Israel’s precise strikes minimized the collateral damage, complying with international law, making it difficult for Iran or China, who support Iran, to find a strong point.”
Lan Shu believes that there is currently a unique time window wherein President Biden, having declared he will not run in the next election, is free of responsibility pressure. Before the next president takes office, he can continue to support Israel, allowing them to handle the Hezbollah organization efficiently.
However, Lan Shu also admitted that even if Hezbollah is quickly eliminated, it is nearly impossible to eradicate it entirely, but at least it might remain inactive for a considerable period.