On September 30, 2024, the Taiwan Institute for Strategic Policy held a seminar on “Japanese Liberal Democratic Party Leadership Election and the Policy Direction of the New Prime Minister,” inviting experts and scholars to share their views on the topic.
Chairman and President of the Institute for Strategic Policy Research, Hiroshi Ta, mentioned that during the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party leadership election process, factional politics and intra-party power struggles played a significant role. Japan ranks third in the world in overall comprehensive national strength, and its diplomatic and security policies are crucial to Taiwan. The new Prime Minister will face challenges related to elderly care, constitutional amendments, and the issue of over-devaluation of the yen.
Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China, Chih-chung Wu, congratulated the newly elected leader of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Ishiba. Taiwan and Japan have been good partners in facing natural disasters and safeguarding democracy. This year, a record-breaking 31 parliamentarians visited Taiwan to congratulate President Tsai on her inauguration. The Deputy Minister expressed hope for the early signing of a Taiwan-Japan bilateral economic and trade agreement to further strengthen ties.
Professor Ho Sishen from the Japanese Language and Literature Department at Fu Jen Catholic University pointed out that the recent Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in Japan was a contest between the two major party factions led by Fumio Kishida and Taro Aso. The factional power struggles within the party will continue to dominate Japan’s domestic politics. Kishida garnered the most support in the first round of voting, positioning himself as a key figure among the younger faction within the party.
According to Professor Ho, Shigeru Ishiba does not directly endorse Shinzo Abe’s “What happens in Taiwan is Japan’s business” stance, indicating a willingness to engage in dialogue with China. Ishiba is also experienced in managing US-Japan relations and is expected to maintain a dynamic balance in the US-China competition. Ishiba stressed the need to avoid categorizing individuals simply as “pro-China” or “pro-Taiwan.” Japan will certainly have contingency plans for any Taiwan-related issues but does not intend to provoke China.
Taiwanese legislator Guan-ting Chen mentioned that at 29 years old, Shigeru Ishiba has a wealth of political experience. He emphasized the importance for politicians to prioritize national interests. Ishiba has proposed the idea of an “Asian NATO” and has shown continued support for sanctions against Russia. Taiwan should handle its relationships with Japan and the US carefully, understanding the basic frameworks and circumstances of Japan.
Executive Director of the Oasis Cultural and Educational Foundation, Wen-sheng Hsieh, mentioned that Ishiba’s emergence indicates a factional division within the Liberal Democratic Party, which requires restructuring into policy-oriented groups. Ishiba’s international engagements reflect Japan’s commitment to regional security in collaboration with the US and other allies. His frequent references to Abe and Kishida’s statements on Taiwan and East Asia demonstrate a continuity in foreign policy approaches.
Hsieh noted Ishiba’s upcoming attendance at the ASEAN summit in Cambodia, the APEC meeting in Peru, and the G20 summit in Brazil. The US and South Korea have welcomed Ishiba’s leadership, with concerns from China due to many of the cabinet members being seen as pro-Taiwan.
Professor Shi-ping Fan from National Taiwan Normal University’s East Asian Studies Department described Ishiba as a seasoned politician with involvement in China-related affairs. Fan stressed the need to pay attention to Japan’s possible enactment of a “Taiwan Relations Act” akin to what the US has. Collaboratively strengthening national defense among Taiwan, the US, and Japan will become increasingly vital.
In terms of future relations between Japan and China, Dong Li-wen, Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation, highlighted ongoing historical and strategic challenges, as well as public sentiment issues between the two countries. Recent Chinese military activities near Japanese territories and disputes further emphasize these tensions.
Opinion polls indicate that around 87% of Japanese citizens hold negative views towards China, suggesting a challenging landscape for Ishiba’s government in handling these sentiments. The relationship between Japan and China has been through fluctuations over the past decades, with public sentiment in Japan towards China currently at its lowest point.
Suzi-yun Su, Researcher and Director of the National Defense Strategic and Resource Research Institute at the National Defense Security Research Institute in Taiwan, highlighted the existing security mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific region, which include bilateral defense agreements, trilateral cooperation, quadrilateral dialogues, and alliances like the Five Eyes network. The US’s efforts in establishing a robust regional security network stand as a counter to China’s influence, providing a foundation on which Ishiba’s government can build upon.
Akio Yoshizaki, Foreign Advisor to the Executive Yuan of the Republic of China, commented on the unpredictability of the recent Japanese Liberal Democratic Party leadership election. It was anticipated in Taiwan that Yuriko Koike might emerge as a candidate, but her right-wing tendencies raised concerns. Ishiba, on the other hand, has emphasized policy stability and garnered significant parliamentary support. The upcoming July 2025 elections in Japan will be a crucial indicator of the country’s political landscape.
Yoshizaki highlighted the significance of President Lai Ching-te’s commitment to Taiwan-Japan relations, with multiple meetings held to discuss security issues. Public sentiment in Japan towards Taiwan is generally positive, and maintaining this relationship is essential. Enhancing exchanges between the youth and people and addressing economic issues with Japan in a constructive manner will benefit Taiwan under Ishiba’s leadership.
To conclude, Hiroshi Ta, Chairman and President of the Institute for Strategic Policy Research, emphasized the importance for the new Japanese government under Ishiba to consider how to address security issues in the US-Japan alliance. Japan, as the world’s third-largest economy, must strengthen its international responsibilities and enhance its relations in Southeast Asia focusing on military security, as evidenced by the recent positive Japan-Philippines relationship.
Ta acknowledged that these are interesting times and Japan has a responsibility to navigate the changing political landscape in the region. Despite the friendly relations between Taiwan and Japan, Taiwan’s stance on Japan varies, and President Lai Ching-te’s favorable outlook towards Japan is hopeful for strengthening Taiwan-Japan relations.