During the Beijing “Fragrant Hills Forum”, the Philippine government indicated that last month, a collision between Chinese vessels in the South China Sea resulted in at least two Chinese crew members losing their lives, causing Beijing to lose face. Furthermore, China’s recent actions in the disputed waters have shown a clear escalation. Experts believe that the ship collision has exacerbated internal conflicts within China. The public humiliation from the Philippines undoubtedly adds fuel to the fire.
Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Año stated on Thursday (September 18th) during a press conference that it was extremely embarrassing for both the Chinese military and coast guard when a collision occurred in August as they were chasing a Philippine coast guard ship. Año mentioned that the Chinese government needs to clear things up with its domestic audience.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded at a press conference yesterday, accusing the Philippines of “seriously infringing on China’s sovereignty and threatening the safety of Chinese personnel” without directly addressing the rumors of the casualties.
According to videos released by the Philippines earlier, on August 11th, the Philippine coast guard ship BRP Suluan was sandwiched between Chinese coast guard vessel 3104 and the warship Guilin while carrying out a mission near Scarborough Shoal. Guilin collided with 3104 during a high-speed interception, severely damaging the latter and rendering it inoperable. Although Guilin suffered lighter damage, visible collision marks were left on its port side.
Philippine Senator Panfilo Lacson previously stated that the incident resulted in the deaths of two Chinese coast guard officers. Beijing has since tightly controlled the information, with very little coverage in domestic media.
In an interview with Epoch Times, Shen Mingshi, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, stated that this incident showcases the effectiveness of the Philippine coast guard’s training. The continuous publicity of the event by the Philippines has left China embarrassed. Under external pressure, the Chinese authorities may either escalate internally to hold individuals accountable or seek opportunities to retaliate against the Philippines in hopes of saving face during future confrontations or collisions.
Professor Yao Yuan from the University of St. Thomas in the United States believes that faced with public humiliation from the Philippines, Beijing lacks a solid way to counter, indicating a challenge to the authority of senior Chinese officials and a perception of weakened deterrence from the Chinese military. The inability of China to present a compelling narrative suggests a reliance on falsehoods in their messaging.
Experts point out that the collision between Chinese coast guard vessels and warships highlights issues in command coordination and integration among different units.
Shen Mingshi suggests that many associate the event with power struggles within China. The lack of joint operations or coordination between the coast guard and navy during the chase with the Philippine coast guard reflects a competition for a shared goal that led to the collision. Some believe this incident may be linked to internal power struggles, as Xi Jinping finds himself at a disadvantage and seeks to divert attention by creating significant events externally.
Shen Mingshi further speculates that the Chinese coast guard vessel may have intended to collide with the Philippine coast guard ship, but the Chinese navy collided with its own coast guard ship to prevent a larger incident.
Since 2018, the coast guard has been under the People’s Armed Police Force, which falls under the Central Military Commission and is no longer part of the State Council sequence. The People’s Armed Police Force carries out tasks such as maritime law enforcement and rights protection.
In recent years, intense infighting within the Chinese military has led to the downfall of many generals, though official announcements are rare. Former commander of the People’s Armed Police Wang Chunning “disappeared” at the end of last year and was stripped of his role as a National People’s Congress delegate on September 12th this year, confirming his downfall. Both former Southern Theater Command naval commanders, Vice Admirals Ju Xinchun (February 2023–March 2024) and Li Pengcheng (March 2024–November 2024), have also fallen from grace.
In November 2024, Vice Admiral Miao Hua, a naval admiral, was investigated. Miao Hua oversaw personnel in the military, and it’s believed his downfall implicates many officers who bought their positions through him. On May 6, 2025, Chief of Naval Staff Li Hanjun was stripped of his role as a National People’s Congress delegate. Li Hanjun was also a former subordinate of Miao Hua.
During the celebration on July 31, Navy Commander Hu Zhongming and political commissar Yuan Huazhi were absent. Rumors had circulated about Yuan Huazhi at the end of last year, and Hu Zhongming was rumored to have been dismissed in June.
Yao Yuan told Epoch Times that the internal purges within the Chinese military or People’s Armed Police may have indirectly led to the collision incident. Frequent personnel changes can destabilize morale and lead individuals to seek recognition or fill vacancies through riskier actions.
Analysts believe that the public humiliation from the Philippines exacerbates the internal conflicts in China.
Yao Yuan suggests that if the unstable morale was a factor in the collision incident, holding individuals accountable afterward could further destabilize morale, intensifying internal conflicts and increasing instability.
Shen Mingshi believes that regardless, a collision between own vessels is a significant embarrassment, and relevant leaders in the Chinese navy, particularly the naval commander and Southern Theater Command naval commanders, may be held responsible. However, due to China’s opaque operations, the current situation regarding high-level changes in the navy remains unclear.