Analysis: India-China Relations Growing Closer as Modi Implements ‘Look East’ Policy

After being sworn in for the third time as India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi received congratulations from leaders around the world.

One particular leader who stood out was Taiwan’s newly elected President, Lai Ching-te. In responding to Lai Ching-te’s message of congratulations, Modi not only expressed gratitude but also highlighted the increasingly close relationship between India and Taiwan as a frontline against China.

Geopolitical analysts told Epoch Times that the exchange of messages between the two leaders indicates that India’s “Act East Policy,” aimed at enhancing economic, strategic, and cultural relations in the Asia-Pacific region, is evolving to include Taiwan. This friendly exchange also underscores strategic issues of mutual concern and their interdependence in terms of economic growth.

Akhil Ramesh, head of the India program at the Pacific Forum think tank in Hawaii, emphasized, “India’s ‘Act East Policy’ is taking shape, and its definition and scope of the ‘Indo-Pacific region’ are expanding. New Delhi has traditionally been focused on the region from East Africa to the Malacca Strait. However, in recent years, it has engaged in port visits to the Philippines, Papua New Guinea (PNG), actively developed relations with Taiwan, expanding from the Malacca Strait to the Taiwan Strait.”

Currently, only 12 countries in the world recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state. Although India has not formally recognized Taiwan, bilateral diplomatic relations have been developing in recent years, especially following the 2020 bloody clashes in Galwan that led to a sharp deterioration in Sino-Indian relations. Last year, Taiwan’s exports to India grew by 13%, and as of February 2024, nearly 200 Taiwanese companies have invested in India.

Ming-Shih Shen, Director of the National Security Institute at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, stated in an email to Epoch Times that the interaction between Lai Ching-te and Modi on the X social media platform is based on mutual expectations.

Shen said, “Taiwan President Lai Ching-te needs attention and support from the international community, hoping to cooperate with regional powers to contain China (the CCP), as India can deter China from the west, Taiwan and India share common geopolitical interests, thus there is greater room for cooperation.”

The interaction between Modi and Lai Ching-te took place on June 4, following the announcement of the India general election results, before Modi’s official swearing-in on June 9.

Lai Ching-te’s message on X on June 5 stated, “Heartfelt congratulations to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for winning the election. We look forward to strengthening the fast-growing Taiwan-India partnership, expanding cooperation in trade, technology, and other areas, and contributing to peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.”

In response, Modi thanked Lai Ching-te for his “sincere message” and expressed anticipation for “closer ties,” as India and Taiwan are “committed to building mutually beneficial economic and technological partnerships.”

The interaction between the two newly elected leaders has garnered widespread attention online. Lai Ching-te’s post has reached 2.5 million views, and Modi’s reply has been viewed 2.7 million times. However, their interaction has sparked displeasure from the Chinese authorities.

During a routine press conference on June 6, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning not only protested against the interaction between Modi and Lai Ching-te but also denied the existence of Taiwan’s president.

Mao Ning, responding to a question from a Bloomberg journalist, said, “First, there is no ‘president’ position in the Taiwan region. As for your question, China opposes any form of official exchanges between the Taiwan authorities and countries that have diplomatic relations with China.”

She informed reporters that China had lodged a protest with India regarding Modi’s response to Lai Ching-te.

She claimed that India had promised the so-called “One China principle,” and therefore, “should recognize, be vigilant against, and resist the political schemes of the Taiwan authorities. China has lodged a protest with India on this matter.”

Experts noted that the shared threat from China has actually brought Taiwan and India closer together. With common interests, Modi’s response to Lai Ching-te clearly indicates that the development of the two countries’ relations is influenced by these factors. Modi’s response also shows that India hopes to elevate itself from a regional player to a larger global role.

Ramesh stated, “India is moving towards grander goals, hoping to play a bigger role in global affairs. So far, India has limited itself to being a regional participant in response to China’s ‘String of Pearls Strategy’ and other challenges. By extending towards Taiwan in the east and East Africa in the west, alongside the recent expansion of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), India aims to increase its global influence.”

He added that India’s goal through expanding global influence is to “glean global leadership and prowess through increased trade and commercial activities.”

Shen mentioned that India doesn’t necessarily need Taiwan to compete with China. However, Taiwan’s semiconductor and chip technologies have become a new area of cooperation between the two countries, aiding India in enhancing its high-tech capabilities and promoting economic development.

He said, “Especially as Taiwan starts investing in India, in the future, if India wants to advance its semiconductor technology or AI development, Taiwan is an indispensable partner.”

During Modi’s second term, the Indian government launched the National Semiconductor Mission with a $10 billion investment in 2021. Earlier this year, as part of the initiative, the Indian Cabinet approved the establishment of three new factories, expected to create 20,000 advanced technology jobs and around 60,000 indirect employment opportunities.

One of the most strategically significant projects is perhaps the $11 billion joint semiconductor manufacturing plant by India’s Tata Group and Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC). The factory is set to be located in Dholera in the western state of Gujarat, India.

According to Taiwan’s Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in India, as of February this year, Taiwan’s investments in India are primarily concentrated in industries such as electronics, information and communications technology, petrochemicals, steel, shipping, footwear manufacturing, automotive and motorcycle components, finance, and construction.

Shen predicted that the relationship between Taiwan and India will continue to deepen and strengthen in the future.

He said, “As the relationship between the two countries gradually deepens, in addition to open economic, trade, and technological exchanges, there may also be increasing cooperation in security and defense industries. India needs to bolster its defense and aviation industry capabilities, while Taiwan needs the defense industry cooperation market.”

The Taiwanese analyst believes that India will not establish formal relations with Taiwan as it seeks to avoid conflict with China. However, if India seeks to enhance its economic strength and deepen its understanding of Chinese military intelligence, it must seek assistance from Taiwan.

Shen stated that the Chinese authorities’ anger towards the interaction between Modi and Lai Ching-te is primarily driven by fear.

“The Chinese authorities are concerned that the relationship between Taiwan and India will deepen, potentially leading to the merging of the India-China boundary sovereignty issue and the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, where enemies of China may form an alliance and cooperate,” he said.

He added that this scenario would be a “nightmare” for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

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