Recently, after the Ukrainian military entered Russian territory, senior officials from Beijing have been visiting Russia to show their support. During the visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Moscow, Ukraine conducted a drone attack on Moscow, drawing attention from the international community. Analysts believe that China’s support for Russia may be more of a gesture rather than substantial assistance.
August saw a dramatic shift in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ukrainian forces crossing the border on the 6th and advancing deep into the Kursk region of Russia in an attempt to establish a “buffer zone,” putting unprecedented pressure on Putin.
Two weeks later on the 19th, Chinese State Councilor Shi Yiqin met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Golikova in Moscow, co-chairing a meeting of the China-Russia Committee on Humanities Cooperation.
On the 20th, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, together with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshenko, co-chaired a meeting of the China-Russia Prime Ministerial Committee in Moscow.
Both Shi Yiqin and He Lifeng are senior officials at the vice-ministerial level. Following their visits, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, a state-level official, arrived in Moscow for discussions.
On the 22nd, Chinese Army Commander Li Qiaoming met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin in Moscow to discuss current “military cooperation issues of mutual interest.”
Renowned Chinese studies scholar Prof. Feng Chongyi from the University of Technology Sydney believes that China is trying to bolster Russia in this manner. He stated that when Russia invaded Ukraine before, many countries globally protested, but now that Ukraine is fighting back, few countries openly criticize Ukraine for attacking Russia. With Russia feeling isolated, China’s leadership is using visits and diplomatic gestures to show support. China does not want to see the downfall of Russia and hopes they do not lose. At the same time, China does not want to openly support Russia, resorting to normal diplomatic and commercial interactions.
Regarding China’s army commander visiting Russia, Su Ziyun, director of the Strategic and Resources Department at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, believes that China is merely making a show and is unlikely to provide substantial help.
Su Ziyun stated that if China and Russia continue to cooperate in the current international landscape, anti-China forces will grow stronger, which is not favorable for Beijing. China is balancing its stance with Russia but refrains from offering actual assistance. Providing substantial military aid to Moscow would result in a complete rift with the West. The current situation only displays the countries’ close relationship.
The drone attack on Moscow by Ukrainian forces coincided with Li Keqiang’s visit to Moscow. Russian officials claim that the attacking drones were intercepted and destroyed. Commentator Wen Zhao expressed on his media platform that Ukraine deliberately carried out the drone attack at a crucial time during Li Keqiang’s visit to exert influence and show a challenge to Russia’s defense of Moscow.
In the past two months, interactions between China and Russia included Chinese National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji visiting Russia from July 9th to 13th, meeting Putin in St. Petersburg and attending the China-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee meeting. On July 25th, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Vientiane, Laos.
Over the past two months, Chinese President Xi Jinping has met with Putin twice – once on May 16th during Putin’s visit to Beijing and again on July 3rd in Astana, Kazakhstan, before the SCO summit, where they met again.
Lee Zhengxiu, deputy researcher at the Taiwan Foundation for National Policy Research, believes that despite China stating that cooperation with Russia has no limits, China’s assistance to Russia is limited.
Lee Zhengxiu shared that Russia heavily relies on exporting oil, natural gas, raw materials, and food products to sustain its military strength financially. If Russia’s economy collapses due to Western sanctions, it will have repercussions on its military. Given the current Ukraine-Russia conflict, China cannot unconditionally support Russia indefinitely and has its own interests to consider. If this situation continues, it could drag China down as well. Therefore, China also hopes for a quick end to the conflict or at least ceasefire negotiations to maintain the status quo.
Ukrainian military operations in the Kursk region of Russia have entered their third week. The bold surprise attack has boosted Ukraine’s morale significantly, changed the battlefield dynamics, and opened a new front in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Georgiy Tykhy stated that unlike Russia, Ukraine does not seek others’ possessions. “Ukraine does not intend to annex the Kursk region’s territory but aims to protect the lives of our people.”
On August 19th, Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed that Ukrainian forces now control over 1250 square kilometers of Russian territory and 92 settlements.
The Institute for the Study of War in Washington reported on August 21st that Putin wants Russian forces to drive out Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region by October 1st. The Kremlin may not rush to push out Ukrainian forces from the area but instead prioritize attacks in eastern Ukraine.