Russia and North Korea have signed a strategic cooperation treaty, elevating their relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” This move not only changes the geopolitical landscape but also introduces a new variable to the previously relatively stable trilateral relationship between China, Russia, and North Korea. Analysts point out that the treaty between North Korea and Russia serves their respective interests, with the biggest loser being the Chinese Communist Party.
On the 19th, Putin and Kim Jong-un signed the “Comprehensive Strategic Partner Relations Treaty” in Pyongyang. According to the treaty, if either party to the agreement is subjected to aggression, the other will provide assistance.
While both North Korea and Russia denied that North Korea provided weapons such as shells to Russia, Pyongyang’s clear support for Moscow’s position is evident. Against the backdrop of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Western countries against Russia, the enhancement of bilateral relations between North Korea and Russia to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” has drawn significant global attention and concern.
The U.S. State Department made it clear days before the meeting between the two leaders that those who support Ukraine and oppose Russian aggression should be greatly concerned about the deepening military cooperation trend between Russia and North Korea.
Both North Korea and Russia are allies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and receive substantial support from China, with the CCP holding significant influence over both countries, particularly over North Korea.
The sudden comprehensive escalation of the strategic partnership between North Korea and Russia has not only changed the geopolitical landscape in East Asia and the world but has also altered the existing relationship structure among China, Russia, and North Korea. Additionally, questions arise about whether the alliance between North Korea and Russia implies an attempt to weaken the influence of the CCP and Beijing’s stance towards the rapidly forming alliance between the two countries.
As early as June 13th, during a press conference at the CCP Foreign Ministry, the media raised questions about the matter. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that Putin’s visit to North Korea involved bilateral arrangements between the two countries, and China “will not comment” on that matter. It was also emphasized that “in principle,” China welcomes Russia’s consolidation and development of friendly relations with relevant countries.
South Korean media characterized the spokesperson’s response as giving off a sense of coldness.
Commentator and cultural historian Zhang Tianliang interpreted the response as a sign of resentment on the part of the Chinese spokesperson, with “not commenting” implying a reluctance to complain; and “in principle,” indicating that while China may welcome it in principle, they may not actually welcome the strengthening of relations between North Korea and Russia. China emerges as the biggest loser from the North Korea-Russia alliance.
Commentator Lan Shu believes that the Chinese Communist Party leader should be aware of the alliance between North Korea and Russia. She told Epoch Times that Xi Jinping is fully informed about what will transpire between North Korea and Russia. “Xi may feel that after Russia and North Korea form an alliance, decisions between them may be made that do not necessarily follow Xi’s preferences.”
Just one day before Putin and Kim Jong-un held their summit on the 18th, China and South Korea held a 2+2 diplomatic and security dialogue in Seoul, attracting broad attention.
The meeting was attended by South Korea’s First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Hong-jun, International Policy Officer Lee Seong-ban from the Ministry of Defense, and China’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sun Weidong and Deputy Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation under the Central Military Commission Zhang Baoqun.
South Korea expressed deep concerns about Putin’s visit to North Korea, emphasizing that Putin’s visit should not pose a threat to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula, nor should it strengthen illicit military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. South Korea pointed out that increased military cooperation between North Korea and Russia has heightened tensions on the peninsula, contrary to China’s interests.
The China-South Korea 2+2 dialogue mechanism was established in 2002 and has been held five times. In 2020, the dialogue was upgraded from the bureau level to the deputy ministerial level, making this the first dialogue since the upgrade.
Given the timing and purpose of this 2+2 dialogue just one day before the North Korea-Russia summit, it has garnered international attention.
Responding to this, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated in a press conference on June 17th that the timing of the China-South Korea 2+2 dialogue had been agreed upon in advance and was “not particularly related to other countries.” The Xinhua News Agency deliberately downplayed the suspicion that the 2+2 dialogue was in response to the North Korea-Russia talks. However, South Korean media explicitly pointed out that this meeting “may make North Korea uncomfortable” and “serves as a restraint on the close relationship between North Korea and Russia.”
Commentator and Canadian Chinese writer Sheng Xue told the Epoch Times on June 19th that the ever-changing relationship between China, North Korea, and Russia has been driven by complex historical animosities and Chinese Communist ideological struggles.
“For Xi Jinping to maintain his highest interests in power, he needs to build relations with South Korea, no longer relying solely on fighting spirit with Russia and brotherhood with North Korea,” she stated.
With the increasing pressure from U.S. sanctions, China’s assistance to Russia has reached its limit, while the bold provision of munitions from North Korea has positioned it as a strategic partner for Russia in times of need. In exchange, North Korea gains benefits from Russia in various aspects such as food, energy, and military technology.
Despite mutual interests in needing to stick together amidst international isolation, both Russia and North Korea remain cautious of China, lacking genuine trust.
During the Trump administration, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed in his memoir “Never Give an Inch” that when the then-CIA director visited Pyongyang, he told Kim Jong-un that China had always indicated they would be pleased once U.S. troops left South Korea. Upon hearing this, Kim Jong-un laughed and excitedly tapped the table, saying, “The Chinese (CCP) are all liars!”
Pompeo wrote that Kim Jong-un needs Americans in South Korea to protect himself and guard against Chinese control. He highlighted that Russia’s real enemy is not Ukraine, nor the U.S. and European countries, but the Chinese Communist Party.
On June 14th, Russian State Television aired a report celebrating the 166th anniversary of the signing of the “Treaty of Tianjin between China and Russia.” This treaty, signed on June 13, 1858, following the Qing government’s defeat in the Second Opium War, is considered an unequal treaty.
Official Russian reports praised the “Tianjin Treaty,” not only embarrassing the CCP but also seen as humiliating the Chinese Communist Party.