The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been expanding its military capabilities in an attempt to challenge the United States’ dominant position in the Indo-Pacific region. Driven by this ambition, the CCP is also trying to “mass-produce” its J-20 fighter jets. However, analysts believe that even with an increase in quantity, the J-20 falls short compared to the F-35 fighter jet in aspects such as stealth capabilities and sensors, making it unable to change its inferiority.
Recently, the military analysis magazine “Jane’s Defence Review” reported that the CCP’s air force is rapidly expanding its J-20 fleet. Based on recent satellite image assessments, the number of J-20 fighter jets has drastically increased from 40 in early 2022 to over 70 in service in just the past year. “Jane’s” report suggests that the CCP is seeking to counterbalance the U.S. military’s F-35 with the J-20, aiming to play a key role in projecting power beyond coastal defense areas—particularly in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Western Pacific region.
The report also states that this expansion may prompt major regional powers such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea to accelerate their own fifth and sixth-generation fighter jet programs, leading to an increase in military spending in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Jane’s” report indicates that the U.S. military currently operates around 630 F-35 fighter jets and plans to purchase approximately 1800 more. Worldwide, there are already 1000 F-35s in operation.
The military website “Warrior Maven” published an article stating that the scale and speed of the J-20’s production increase may not be clear yet, but the CCP’s intentions and industrial capabilities seem to be in place. Given that the “quantity has a quality all its own” principle remains crucial in modern warfare, the CCP needs a large fleet of J-20s to truly compete for air superiority globally and regionally.
However, if the J-20 falls short in sensor range, targeting accuracy, and multirole aerial dominance compared to the U.S. F-35 fighter jet, having more J-20s may not necessarily make a significant difference. For instance, if the F-35’s long-range high-fidelity sensors can detect the J-20s before the J-20s realize it, just one F-35 could potentially destroy an entire J-20 formation.
The key sensors equipped on the F-35 include Northrop Grumman’s AN/APG-81 active electronically scanned array radar; BAE Systems’ AN/ASQ-239 “Sloane” electronic warfare system; Northrop Grumman/Raytheon’s AN/AAQ-37 electro-optical distributed aperture system; Lockheed Martin’s AN/AAQ-40 electro-optical targeting system; and Northrop Grumman’s AN/ASQ-242 communications, navigation, and identification (CNI) suite.
The integration of all these advanced sensor systems gives the F-35 better situational awareness, command and control capabilities, and network-centric warfare capabilities than any other current aircraft in production.
The F-35 is designed for air superiority and strike missions, and it also features intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities for electronic warfare. Furthermore, in addition to sensors, the J-20 falls short of the F-35 in stealth and weapons systems, as well as combat experience.
Former U.S. Navy combat expert Eric Wicklund detailed why the J-20 still cannot compete with the F-35, focusing on the difficulties the CCP faces in material science, particularly in developing effective radar-absorbing materials (RAM).
Wicklund stated, “Simply creating a stealthy shape only satisfies one aspect of stealth performance. Even the internal structure and its configuration are crucial.”
He believes that the CCP’s shortcomings in material science have affected their ability to develop effective RAM, which could absorb or scatter up to 80% of radar waves. Wicklund pointed out that stealing the shape of a stealth fighter from U.S. computers is simple for the CCP, but developing advanced RAM is a more challenging task.
“I could hand them a piece of RAM,” Wicklund wrote, “They’d analyze it and realize it is real (stealth material), but the problem is how to reverse-engineer it. They know what it is, but don’t know how to make it.”
He explained that giving the U.S. RAM to the CCP is like handing a Damascus steel blade to an Egyptian swordmaker. The Egyptians would recognize the superior quality of the blade but would be unable to reverse-engineer it. This illustrates the problem the CCP currently faces in RAM technology.
In terms of overall stealth capability, the F-35 also holds a significant advantage. This is because the F-35’s overall structure reflects smaller radar signals, while the J-20’s designers decided to install spike-shaped canards on the front of the fuselage for some reason, which compromises its stealth capabilities.
As former Thunderbirds air show commander, current senior resident fellow for airpower studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, and retired Colonel John “JV” Venable recently stated, “I’d venture to guess the J-20 is dead long before it has a chance against an F-22 or F-35. It has enough spikes on it that the radar return is likely much larger, meaning the F-22 and F-35 can ‘see’ it much farther away.”
One item in F-35 specifications that sets it apart from the J-20 is that the F-35 is equipped with a machine gun, namely a cannon. In other words, the J-20 cannot engage in close-range aerial combat, likely due to the shift away from all air-to-air engagements using missiles.
Military defense editor Christian D. Orr once wrote that it is better to have and not need than to need and not have. Even without considering air combat, a cannon remains useful in air-to-ground operations, such as strafing enemy ground troops and vehicles.
Additionally, U.S. aircraft have an advantage in versatility, being able to carry varying numbers of different types of missiles and bombs.
The outside world is unaware of the mechanical reliability of the J-20. Orr mentioned in an article on the aviation news website “Simple Flying” that China evidently lacks press freedom, and the CCP does not disclose the readiness rates of its aircraft like the United States does. Therefore, even if the J-20 faces mechanical issues, the public would not know. In contrast, both the Australian and Israeli air forces have not encountered reliability problems when operating the F-35 and are highly satisfied with the aircraft.
The J-20 has two engines, providing a backup in case one engine fails. CCP media has also boasted about the performance of domestically produced engines for the J-20. However, the external world is unable to verify these claims.
Despite the F-35 having only one engine manufactured by Pratt & Whitney, a company with a 99-year track record of producing reliable engines.
Furthermore, the Israeli Air Force has brought another critical advantage to the F-35: combat experience. As early as 2018, they tested their F-35I “Adir” variant by conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah terrorist groups.
In November last year, the Israeli military stated that an F-35I fighter jet recently shot down an incoming cruise missile. This marked the first successful interception of a cruise missile by this U.S.-made fifth-generation fighter jet.
The Israeli Air Force had previously announced the combat readiness of its F-35 aircraft in 2017 and confirmed its participation in real combat in 2018, making them the first country globally to employ the F-35 in combat. Israel has been steadily acquiring F-35 fighter jets and will eventually possess 75 of them.
In comparison, the J-20 remains an unproven commodity on the battlefield. While there are threats of invading the Taiwan Strait, it’s not enough to establish its credibility.