Beijing’s hypersensitive reaction to the remarks made by Japan’s new Prime Minister, Kan Sanae, regarding Taiwan continued to escalate for several days before quietly cooling down on the 21st. Some Japanese scholars pointed out that China’s earlier intense reactions came from directives at the highest level, but inciting anti-Japanese sentiment is a double-edged sword; once demonstrations and protests emerge, they will backlash on the Chinese Communist Party itself.
For several days in a row, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been orchestrating anti-Japanese propaganda. The CCP’s military newspaper published warnings on the 15th and 16th, cautioning that all of Japan could “fall into a battlefield”; the CCP’s Air Force on the 17th boasted, “The gun is loaded and the sword is drawn against Japan”; on the 18th, CCTV released footage and photos of CCP officials with their “hands in their pockets” meeting Japanese officials; China’s Ministry of State Security on the 19th stated that the “fire starters who provoke beyond the line won’t have a good ending.”
Spokesperson for the CCP’s Ministry of Commerce, He Yongqian, stated on the 20th that if Japan “acts recklessly,” China will resolutely take necessary measures. After recently agreeing to resume the import of aquatic products from 37 regions of Japan just five months ago, China has now ordered Chinese foreign trade companies to halt the import of Japanese aquatic products once again. China has also suspended official negotiations on the resumption of Japanese beef exports to China.
However, by the 21st, the official anti-Japanese propaganda from the CCP seemed to cool down, with major state media outlets barely showing the same fervor seen in the previous days, except for reports highlighting the Ministry of Commerce’s warning that if Japan acts recklessly, China will take necessary measures, and the Foreign Ministry’s reminder that “Japan must remember.”
On the other hand, several Chinese state-owned enterprise employees revealed to the South China Morning Post that despite receiving prior approval to travel or attend business in Japan, they have been instructed by their companies to cancel their plans to visit Japan. Users on platforms like Xiaohongshu complained about being forcibly asked by their party and government institutions to cancel their trips to Japan. With a large number of originally scheduled flights to Japan being canceled, this not only impacts Japan’s tourism industry but also causes significant repercussions in China’s aviation sector.
Some mainland netizens on Weibo said, “We should permit anti-Japanese protests to express the determination of the Chinese people.”
However, others argued, “Tonight in Xujiahui, the food streets in the department stores are full of Japanese food, and they are all crowded with customers. With Chinese people loving Japanese products so much, how could they be anti-Japanese?”
Another netizen mentioned, “There was a rumor in the past that during anti-Japanese protests, as they spread to other cities, they turned into smashing and looting. When the anti-Japanese slogans reached Tianjin, they became ‘National Security XX’ instead.”
Kakuji Nakazawa, a veteran Japanese journalist who had worked in China for seven years and currently serves as an editor in chief at the Tokyo headquarters of the Nikkei, wrote yesterday (20th) that the recent series of strong reactions from China is coming from directives issued at the highest levels. In the past, the CCP often responded to what it deemed as problematic actions from Japan by inciting anti-Japanese demonstrations. However, today, this particular diplomatic method – inciting protests – is like a double-edged sword that may lead to backlash against the Xi Jinping regime.
The tensions between China and Japan escalated during the disputes over the Senkaku Islands in August and September of 2012. Massive anti-Japan protests erupted in Beijing and spread to various parts of China, resulting in the destruction of stores and factories owned by some Japanese companies. After these two waves of protests, cities like Xi’an began prohibiting large-scale demonstration activities and banned the organization of illegal protests using phone calls and online information. City-wide text messages in Beijing warned residents not to engage in further demonstration activities.
Kakuji Nakazawa mentioned that controlling protesters was relatively easy for the CCP 13 years ago because they were organized under CCP’s initiative. However, today’s China is fundamentally different, marked by a continuous decline in real estate prices, turning into negative assets, forcing the Chinese to tighten their belts. At the same time, the youth unemployment rate remains high.
He believed that under these circumstances, if the CCP shows willingness to tolerate anti-Japanese protest activities sparked by Kan’s Taiwan remarks, the protests might spread nationwide like wildfire. They could potentially evolve into anti-government protests once they spiral out of control. People are feeling frustrated due to serious economic challenges and need an outlet to release their long-accumulated grievances.
Back in August 2006, when then-Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited the Yasukuni Shrine on the anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II, the Chinese authorities, while protesting officially, also issued directives banning anti-Japanese demonstrations nationwide. The Shenzhen police acted proactively at that time, summoning a few organizers of anti-Japanese activities for warning and increasing surveillance in the city.
The famous political commentator Cao Changqing once pointed out that anti-Japan sentiments and the prohibition of such sentiments have become a trump card for the CCP to solidify its rule – they incite when needed and suppress when not. This indicates that this regime is extremely weak, relying on such thuggish means to maintain control.