Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on the situation in the Taiwan Strait have sparked strong reactions from the Chinese Communist Party, leading to escalating retaliatory measures. Following China’s warning to its citizens not to travel to Japan, some airlines have already suspended bookings for certain flights. As of 10:00 on November 24, a total of 12 direct flights between China and Japan have been canceled.
This move objectively eases the “over-tourism” pressure on popular Japanese tourist cities, but its impact on Japanese businesses varies. According to data from flight management service DAST, all flights on the 12 China-Japan routes have been canceled, affecting major cities such as Nagoya, Fukuoka, Sapporo, and Osaka. The cancellation rate for Chinese flights to Japan in the coming week is expected to reach 21.6%, the highest in a month.
The routes with the highest cancellation rates include: Tianjin Binhai to Kansai International (65.0%), Nanjing Lukou to Kansai International (59.4%), Guangzhou Baiyun to Kansai International (31.3%), Shanghai Pudong to Kansai International (30.1%), Wuxi Shuofang to Kansai International (28.6%).
Several Chinese airlines have adjusted their flight schedules, implementing route reductions, reduced frequencies, and free change and refund policies, with adjustments expected to continue until March 28, 2026, covering the spring holiday and Chinese New Year period.
While Chinese tourists account for nearly a quarter of all foreign tourists in Japan, the suspension of flights from China to Japan is objectively providing some breathing space for popular Japanese cities. In recent years, some popular tourist cities in Japan, such as Kyoto and Nara, have experienced issues like traffic congestion, environmental pressures, and inconvenience to residents due to “over-tourism.”
A blogger on X platform known as “墓碑科技碑” pointed out that despite China’s hope to impact Japan’s economy by suspending flights, local residents in Japan are actually enjoying a more relaxed living environment. The deer in Nara Park are getting less chased by visitors, there are fewer tourist groups in the streets of Kyoto, and the quality of life for ordinary people has improved. The “anti-Japan strike” effect expected by the Chinese government seems to have missed the mark.
Although there are concerns that a decrease in Chinese tourists may impact Japan’s retail, dining, and tourism industries, most stores in Tokyo have not been significantly affected. In the Asakusa area of Tokyo, a jewelry store where Chinese buyers typically account for about half of customers, its store manager Shinmei Ito expressed no worries about the reduction in Chinese customers, stating that “with fewer Chinese customers, Japanese consumers find it easier to shop, so our performance has not declined.”
In the upscale Ginza area of Tokyo, there is a popular noodle shop that went viral on social media. The shop manager Yuki Yamamoto mentioned that about half of the usual queues are made up of Chinese customers. Despite the travel warning issued by Beijing, their revenue has not been immediately affected. “Even if the number of customers decreases, we still have regular Japanese customers coming, so we are not too concerned.”
While some Tokyo businesses seem relatively unaffected by the travel warning, Japanese hotels that heavily rely on Chinese tourists are experiencing a different situation. Keiko Takeuchi, the president of a well-established hotel in Gamagori, Aichi Prefecture, said, “50% to 60% of our usual guests are Chinese tourists.” With cancellations from Chinese travel agencies coming in succession, there is still some concern. “I hope the situation can calm down quickly, but it seems it will take some time.”
Currently, there are around 1,224 flights from China to Japan each week. The comprehensive suspension of the 12 China-Japan routes has already had a noticeable impact on Chinese tourists and the aviation market. However, Japanese businesses have not experienced significant losses in the short term, while popular tourist cities have received some relief.