After Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, took office three days ago, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. However, the scale of the exercise was not as large as before, and its aggressive behavior has instead triggered international condemnation.
The CCP’s Eastern Theater Command claimed on Thursday (May 23) that military exercises towards Taiwan began at 7:45 am on the 23rd and continued around Taiwan and the Kinmen Islands until the 24th.
The military exercise was expected, aimed at pressuring the new president of Taiwan. Lai Ching-te declared his inauguration on Monday (20th) to become the 16th President of the Republic of China.
Although the CCP has never ruled Taiwan in history, it conducts almost daily military intrusions near Taiwan’s airspace, demanding that Taiwan accept its sovereignty claims.
Compared to similar exercises in August 2022 and April 2023, The Guardian of the UK mentioned that the exercise on Thursday was smaller in scale and did not involve live ammunition on the first day of the two-day exercise.
Like previous exercises, this CCP exercise demonstrated a “blockade operation” where they surrounded but did not attack. Besides the five designated areas around the main island, exercise areas included the outlying islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuchiu, and Dongyin.
For the first time, the exercise on Thursday included ships from the CCP’s Coast Guard. In recent years, these ships have been increasingly used for law enforcement and military purposes.
Analysts expect the CCP to conduct military exercises around Taiwan this week. After Lai Ching-te’s victory in the January Taiwan presidential election, the CCP did not react strongly. Analysts believe the CCP aims to demonstrate its presence through military force after the new president’s inauguration in May.
Lieutenant General Stephen Sklenka, Deputy Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, stated in a public speech on Thursday that the CCP’s exercises are “worrisome” but not unexpected. He said the CCP is attempting to normalize “abnormal behavior.”
The Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense confirmed that the CCP’s air and naval forces approached within 24 nautical miles after announcing the start of the exercise on Thursday. However, no live ammunition was fired, and no flight restrictions were announced.
Evan Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the latest CCP exercises as a “coercive strategy” that fits into their Taiwan policy pattern rather than a sign of impending war. He suggested that Beijing has a toolkit of coercion methods to impose on Taiwan periodically or escalate occasionally to indicate a range of coercive and painful choices regarding Taiwan.
Song Wendie, a scholar at the Australian National University studying cross-strait relations, stated that this signals “shaping international narratives” for the CCP.
Since Thursday (May 23), the CCP’s Eastern Theater Command has been conducting a joint military exercise called “Joint Sword—2024A” around Taiwan. The suffix “A” in the exercise’s name has sparked speculation that more exercises will follow later this year.
Song Wendie speculated that the ongoing exercise in the CCP’s codenamed “A” may have subsequent “B” or “C” exercises, portending larger-scale military exercises in the future.
He added that the CCP’s so-called real “punishment” for Taiwan has not yet arrived because the CCP also needs time to coordinate between agencies before taking action.
Military exercises by the CCP around Taiwan have always backfired, harming its own interests.
Chinese expert Zhang Jiadun in the United States Tweeted, saying, “This is a political war. So far, for Beijing, it’s like a fire in the backyard because the exercise further strengthens Taiwan’s determination.”
Major General Lou Wei-chieh, Director of the Psychological Warfare Department at the Political Warfare Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense, Taiwan, stated that the CCP is accustomed to conducting cognitive warfare against Taiwan during military exercises. They use state media and affiliated organizations to release a large amount of exercise-related content, including false information, to divide Taiwanese military and civilian morale and unity.
Therefore, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense released three videos on Thursday through social media platforms like YouTube with Chinese and English subtitles for international dissemination to expose the CCP’s aggressive behavior.
These videos received positive responses.
A Taiwanese netizen commented under one of the videos, saying, “Thank you to the military for protecting our homeland. Taiwan is collectively guarded by all of us, not just a single party’s monopoly. When the country is in trouble, every citizen is affected.”
The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) issued a statement condemning the CCP, stating, “When Beijing tests international reactions, those committed to stability across the Taiwan Strait must not stand by. Taiwan’s security is our security, and maintaining the status quo is in the interest of the entire world.”
Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group, mentioned in an interview with Voice of America that the CCP’s current military exercises aim to warn the Lai Ching-te administration and Washington. The goal is to intimidate Lai Ching-te into reverting to a more conciliatory tone in cross-strait relations, warning that otherwise “they could and will continue to pressure Taiwan.”
However, she also noted that Beijing’s desire for a softer stance from the new Taiwanese government may backfire due to the deep-seated distrust of the Lai Ching-te administration and the domestic pressures they currently face, which may lead Taiwan to defend the median line in the Strait more firmly.
Lai Ching-te, 64, has repeatedly proposed holding talks with Beijing but has been rejected. Lai Ching-te and his ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), emphasized that only the people of Taiwan can determine their future.
In his inauguration speech this Monday, Lai Ching-te again publicly urged Beijing to stop political and military intimidation against Taiwan, proposing mutual tourism resumption and enrolling mainland Chinese students in Taiwan universities as ways to enhance cross-strait exchanges.
However, Lai Ching-te warned the Taiwanese people about Beijing’s ambition to “swallow Taiwan” and reiterated that “the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China do not subordinate to each other.”
After the speech, Beijing labeled Lai Ching-te as a Taiwan independence advocate and vowed to punish him.
IPAC stated in a release, “Beijing’s actions have no basis in international law. This is a shocking move by China following President Lai Ching-te’s call for both sides to remain calm, especially with their violent rhetoric and threats to ‘punish’ Lai Ching-te, along with the CCP’s military exercises, insulting regional peace and posing a direct challenge to the international community.”
Some Taiwanese military analysts stress that Taiwan must continue to strengthen its defense capabilities and increase its defense budget.
Taiwanese military expert Su Ziyun stated in an interview with Voice of America that Beijing’s military exercises are part of its long-standing pressure on Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan needs to ensure sufficient defense capabilities to withstand increasing pressure from Beijing and maintain peace in the region.
He noted that the exercises only confirm the real threats from the CCP toward Taiwan and may convince like-minded democratic countries, especially the United States, to engage more in related efforts to deter Beijing from continuing such actions.
Rorry Daniels, a China analyst at the Asia Policy Research Institute’s China Analysis Center, pointed out that it is worth noting how Beijing’s exercises around Taiwan will affect the upcoming Shangri-La Dialogue between US and Chinese defense secretaries.
“Perhaps China still sees military diplomacy as a safety belt rather than a barrier and is currently applying pressure,” she stated.
It is reported that the US Defense Secretary Austin and the Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe will meet before the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, taking place from May 31 to June 2.
Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, the CCP closed off previous routine military communication channels.
After President Biden’s meeting with the CCP leader at the APEC summit in San Francisco in October 2023, both sides agreed to restore military communications.
It was not until April 2024 that Defense Ministers Austin and Wei Fenghe had their first conversation.
During the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue, the Chinese side refused to agree to a meeting between Austin and then-Taiwanese Defense Minister Lee Shang-fu because the US had not lifted sanctions imposed on Lee Shang-fu during the Trump administration. A few months later, as part of an investigation into corruption in the CCP’s military, Beijing removed Lee Shang-fu from his post. Wei Fenghe took office in December 2023.
In May 2024, the US Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for Indo-Pacific security affairs spoke with his Chinese counterpart, marking the first call between officials in that position since 2019.
As there are no direct official communication channels between Taiwan and Beijing, communications between the US and China draw significant attention.