After the “Golden Week” holiday in China, the price of pork did not see the expected rebound in consumption. Instead, it continued the downward trend from before the holiday. This week, pork prices dropped by 39.4% compared to the same period last year. It is predicted that the price of live pigs in 2026 may plummet even further, putting pig farmers in a dilemma of “selling at a loss or holding on and losing even more”.
Following the “Golden Week” holiday, pork prices nationwide have been declining since the third quarter. As of October 13, the spot price of pork in China was reported at 10.92 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.26 yuan per kilogram compared to before the holiday, with a year-on-year and month-on-month decline of 39.43% and 18.08% respectively.
The main futures contract 2511 for live pigs closed down 2.88% at 11,125 yuan per ton, hitting a new historical low and a cumulative decline of 21% within the year, with a drop of over 40% from last year’s peak, indicating strong bearish sentiment.
As of October 9, the prices of live pigs in several provinces including Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Heilongjiang have fallen into the range of 5 yuan per kilogram, with the average price of live pigs in China dropping to 5.88 yuan per jin.
A pork vendor named Lao Wang at Beijing’s largest agricultural wholesale market, Xinfadi, told Huaxia Times, “The price of pork keeps dropping every day. People are not stockpiling much meat. These days, due to the rain, business at restaurants has been slow, leading to reduced purchases and making business difficult.”
According to a report by “Blue Whale News” on Monday (October 13), a large-scale pig farmer in Qilong County, Southwest of Guizhou Province, expressed that the prices of live pigs fluctuate daily, resulting in increasing losses with more sales. Currently, the self-bred and self-raised model is facing losses of over 40 yuan per pig, while farmers buying piglets externally are encountering losses of around 150 yuan per pig.
A video released by the self-media “Mandy Teacher Focuses on Pig Farming” on Monday emphasized that with the price of live pigs plummeting to the 5 yuan range, pig farming is facing losses across the board, indicating that a cold winter has arrived for the industry.
The decline in pork prices correlates with losses for pig farmers. “Blue Whale News” reported that currently under the self-bred and self-raised model, each pig is facing losses exceeding 40 yuan, while for farmers buying piglets externally, the losses are around 150 yuan per pig.
According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the losses for pig farmers are even more severe. As of October 10, the losses under the self-bred and self-raised model amount to 206.91 yuan per head, and the losses for piglet fattening are as high as 409.19 yuan per head.
“China Pig Farming Net” released a video on the same day, stating that some farmers openly admitted that they are currently in a situation where “selling results in losses, not selling results in even greater losses”. They expressed their struggle, saying, “Most of the pigs in our farm were restocked last year at a high cost. We are losing two to three hundred yuan per pig sold. In the current market, it’s not about making more or less profit, but rather minimizing losses.”
The latest provincial monitoring data released by the Shandong Livestock Bureau showed that the average price of fat pigs in the province was 12.86 yuan per kilogram last week, a year-on-year decrease of 28.60% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.46%. Currently, the feed-to-pig price ratio in Shandong is at 5.27:1, indicating a year-on-year decline of 35.65% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.50%.
Beijing pork vendor Lao Wang told Huaxia Times, “Compared to the prices at their peak last year, pork prices are now lower by 4 to 5 yuan per jin. With a pig weighing over 200 jin, you can calculate the significant difference in profit. Furthermore, as the price of meat drops, sales volume decreases as people only buy enough for a day, fearing the price might drop the next day, resulting in losses.”
In a video posted by blogger “Xiao Hui Learns Cattle Farming” recently, it was noted, “The entire farming industry is experiencing losses across the board. Prices are dropping for pigs, cows, sheep, chickens, ducks, and geese – everything is losing money. The reason behind this situation is due to the fact that the common people are running out of money, leading to reduced consumer demand and an overall weak economic environment. There are barely any items that are not witnessing price drops, be it grains, meat, eggs, or milk.”
The fundamental imbalance of strong supply and weak demand has been pointed out as the core reason for the continuous decline in pork prices. Data published by “China Pig Industry” indicates that the price of live pigs in 2026 may further plummet to 5-5.5 yuan per jin.
An agricultural analyst told “First Financial” that from the demand side, the peak consumption season for pork is almost “quiet”. With the consumption demands of the “Golden Week” and Mid-Autumn Festival being met, the following period will witness a temporary downturn in consumption, making it difficult to rely on increased pork consumption to support prices.
From the supply side, the absolute quantity of sows in stock remains relatively high. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of the end of September, the nationwide inventory of sows reached 40.62 million, an increase of 260,000 from the previous month, equivalent to 104.2% of the normal retention amount.
The analyst stated, “The record low pork prices indicate that the industry is in the preliminary stage of capacity clearance and has not yet entered a large-scale, substantive liquidation phase.”
Additionally, reports on the internet have surfaced recently about pig farms in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, and Sichuan provinces testing positive for the PRRS virus. Since this virus results in a high mortality rate among piglets, leading to a significant decrease in the inventory of live pigs, there is growing concern about the possibility of pork prices skyrocketing once again.