As the US election draws near with less than six months to go, Republicans are increasingly optimistic about their chances, aiming to end their minority status in the Senate and flip several Democratic Senate seats in the upcoming election.
According to a report from The Hill on Monday (May 27), Republican leaders believe that besides almost certain victory in West Virginia, they only need one more win to secure victories in two red states and a large number of swing states. The two red states (West Virginia and Texas) and a group of swing states are within reach of their goals.
Here are the top 10 federal Senate seats most likely to flip in this year’s election.
In a key battle, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester will face off against Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. Tester is working to boost his credibility on border issues, a key concern for garnering support from former President Trump’s supporters in the state where Trump’s approval rating exceeds 16 points.
Recent weeks have seen the three-term Senator at odds with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on border issues, being the first Democrat to propose the Republican-led Laken Riley Act despite voting against amendments to the bill. He also voted in support of the bipartisan border bill introduced by Senate Majority Leader Schumer.
However, whether these actions are enough to change the public’s perception of the Democratic Party’s stance on border issues remains uncertain.
John LaBombard, a Democratic strategist at Rokk Solutions, said: “Few Democrats take border security as seriously as Jon Tester, but considering the Democratic Party’s poor image on this issue, he, like other Democrats in battleground states, is fighting a tough political battle.”
In a highly competitive race, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is trying to secure his fourth term by defeating Republican Bernie Moreno. Despite Ohio’s rightward shift during the Trump administration, Brown, a highly regarded Democrat, holds a double-digit net approval rating which gives him an edge in this historically significant battleground state.
But the current national political climate may pose challenges for Brown. Democrats expect Biden’s support in the state to drop by at least 8 points, if not double digits, presenting a significant challenge for Brown.
At present, Brown is employing strong tactics to combat Moreno. A Democratic operative noted that apart from Trump endorsing GOP nominee Moreno, very little is known about him.
Ohio has been steadily turning red each year, with Republican Senator JD Vance commenting, “This is a tough challenge. Sherrod is a popular incumbent. People know who he is. “I think Bernie will win, but this will not be an easy race.”
Recently, when asked about promising states for Republicans, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell mentioned Pennsylvania. Republicans hope David McCormick can defeat Democratic Senator Bob Casey in the state.
McCormick is leaving no stone unturned in his preparations for victory in November, but truly beating Casey, scion of a powerful political family, remains one of the toughest tasks in this election race.
A GOP strategist in Pennsylvania remarked, “Everything he (Casey) does is right.” “Smartly, he’s essentially fundraising, not self-funding, and most importantly, his visibility is sky-high.”
Republicans fear that for Casey to win, he just needs to avoid making mistakes, with the GOP strategist characterizing Casey as “Teflon” – nothing sticks to him. They believe that McCormick’s best chance of crossing the finish line is if Biden’s campaign hits rock-bottom before November.
Internal polls in the state show Democrats leading Republicans at all levels of local and congressional races. “But the one constant is that Biden is struggling everywhere,” the GOP strategist said.
Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen’s re-election campaign is embroiled in nationwide upheaval.
Rosen was seen as a formidable opponent for Republicans, nearly impervious to effective attacks, but Republicans are linking her to the Democrats’ decline in fortunes, hoping to capitalize on the major political environment and potentially turn the tables.
A Democratic operative said, “The Southwest is feeling the economic pain more than other areas.” “It’s hard for Biden’s campaign team to change this dynamic.”
Multiple polls indicate a tight race in the state, with Trump either narrowly ahead of Biden or in a deadlock, concerning whether Trump can help Sam Brown, a potential Republican Senate nominee, rise in the campaign.
In June, Brown will be the frontrunner in the Republican primary, also a top choice among national Republicans. A recent poll by The New York Times/Siena College shows a tie between both parties, inspiring Brown. However, a second survey by Emerson College/The Hill showed Rosen leading by 8 points.
Arizona has been buzzing for the past few months. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego has gained early momentum in this crucial swing state, while Republican Kari Lake’s fortunes have plummeted.
Lake, who lost in the 2022 gubernatorial race, experienced a tumultuous period. On a key campaign issue this year – abortion, Lake criticized the state government for failing to enforce the reinstatement of a Civil War-era abortion ban as ordered by the state Supreme Court, but she initially called for the repeal of the ban.
Throughout the campaign, Lake has struggled to keep pace with Gallego’s fundraising speed. In the first quarter, Gallego raised $7.5 million, while Lake only raised $3.6 million. Currently, she is striving to appeal to moderate Republicans and independents.
Several surveys show Gallego in the lead. CBS News and Noble Predictive Insights polls reveal Gallego leading Lake by 13 and 10 points, respectively.