In recent days, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has conducted military exercises around Taiwan on the 23rd and 24th of May. Despite this, the stock market in Taiwan remained calm while the mainland experienced fluctuations. Insider sources have revealed to Epoch Times that there have been unusual movements in the Central Theater Command located in Beijing, with increased political stability measures in the surrounding areas. Reports have also emerged of dissent within the troops stationed in Hebei with critical comments directed towards Xi Jinping.
On May 25th, a source familiar with the military situation in China, using the pseudonym Tianming, disclosed to Epoch Times that following Beijing’s announcement of military exercises, there have been changes in the Central Theater Command. Training sessions have been initiated late at night, even though this time period is typically reserved for rest, indicating the seriousness of the situation as this particular unit is responsible for the defense of Beijing.
The Central Theater Command, one of the five main military regions in China, is responsible for overseeing armed forces in seven provincial-level administrative regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, Shaanxi, and Hubei. This command office is based in Beijing and primarily focuses on homeland defense and providing support for operations in other theaters of war.
Residing in Hebei and in close proximity to the local military presence, Tianming mentioned that following the Taiwan election in January, “Emergency packages were distributed to every household here, which indicates preparations are being made.” He emphasized the potential vulnerability of Beijing in the event of conflict, leading residents to seek refuge in Hebei.
However, Tianming expressed doubts about the safety of the CCP leadership around Beijing, pinpointing internal instability as a significant concern. Dissatisfaction with Xi Jinping within the military ranks was evident, with reports of statements like “Flood the South China Sea, topple Xi Jinping” circulating among the troops.
Furthermore, Tianming highlighted the increased pressure for grassroots stability measures in the outskirts of Beijing, with stringent controls on individuals entering the city and heightened surveillance on residents already present. The necessity for political stability was underscored, affirming the concerns within the government about potential unrest stemming from any conflict escalation.
While the official Chinese narrative aims to stoke tension in the Taiwan Strait, the two-day military drills conducted by the CCP had minimal impact on the daily lives of Taiwan’s 23 million inhabitants. Even the political disputes among lawmakers in the Taiwanese legislature continued without significant disruption.
The S&P Taiwan BMI Index reached a historic high, with the Taiwanese stock market recording a minor increase of 0.3% on the 23rd and a slight decrease of 0.2% on the 24th. Semiconductor giant TSMC maintained its stock price at a historic peak.
In contrast, the Chinese mainland witnessed a downturn as the CCP’s military maneuvers provoking tensions in the Taiwan Strait led to a collective drop in the three major A-share indexes. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged by more than 1.5%, falling below the crucial 3,100-point mark, while Hong Kong stocks also experienced weakness with the Hang Seng Index and HS Tech Index declining by over 2% intraday on May 24th.
Retired Major General and former Dean of the National Defense University’s School of Political Warfare, Yu Zongji, conveyed to Epoch Times that the marginal utility of the CCP’s military exercises had virtually no impact on the normalcy of life in Taiwan or financial markets. He highlighted that these saber-rattling actions by the CCP produced greater economic anxieties within China itself rather than instigating any significant response within Taiwan.
The reports of disrespectful remarks towards Xi Jinping within the CCP military are concerning and indicative of the internal turmoil within the armed forces over the past year. With senior officials in branches such as the Rocket Force, Equipment Development Department, Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, Navy, Air Force, Strategic Support Force, and aerospace defense companies being purged, it is evident that discontent is simmering.
The disquiet within the military escalated last year, leading to the removal of several high-ranking officials, including former Rocket Force commanders Li Yuchao and Zhou Yaning, as well as Defense Minister Li Shangfu. Analysts suggest that Xi Jinping’s dismissal of over twenty National People’s Congress delegates, with half of them being military personnel, showcases the deepening dissatisfaction towards his leadership within the armed forces.
Lai Rongwei, Executive Director of the Taiwan Inspirational Association, revealed to Epoch Times on May 24th that influential figures within the military have started expressing discontent towards Xi Jinping. This sentiment stems from the realization that while Xi holds the helm in the CCP, dissent can be subtly gathered against him until the right moment.
Yu Zongji further explained that while no faction within the military dares to directly challenge Xi Jinping currently, any loosening of the stability forces due to economic downturn, delayed salaries, or infighting among the party’s defense forces could signal the precursor to a revolution. He emphasized that the People’s Liberation Army comprehends that an attack on Taiwan would equate to engaging with democratic alliances globally, deterring thoughtful military leaders from taking reckless actions.
In the event of a military aggression against Taiwan initiated by Xi Jinping, it would signify the collapse of his internal military authority and destabilization of the stability forces, exposing himself to high risks regarding personal safety and security.
(Translated and rewritten)