On Friday, December 5, 2025, “The Wall Street Journal” raised a question in an article, asking which country, China or the United States, has contributed the most to the economic growth of other regions in the world in 2025?
The answer is the United States, and its contribution far exceeds that of China. Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs, imports have increased by 10% compared to the same period in 2025. On the other hand, Beijing, while vocally opposing trade protectionism, has seen a 3% decrease in imports.
Greg Ip, the Chief Economic Commentator of “The Wall Street Journal”, mentioned in his article that the trade data from the U.S. might be an exception, possibly reflecting a situation where imports were front-loaded in response to the tariff hikes. Over the past five years, China has seen a surge in exports while imports have stagnated, indicating China’s increasing share in the global manufactured goods market.
“This reveals a disturbing fact: Beijing is sacrificing the interests of other countries by pursuing a ‘winner-takes-all’ growth model,” he wrote.
Moreover, he highlighted a recent report from Goldman Sachs economists. According to their latest forecast, the economic interdependence between China and other regions in the world has turned negative.
Goldman Sachs predicts that China’s economic growth rate during the period 2026-2029 will be 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points higher than previously expected, resulting in a 0.1 percentage point drop in economic growth for other regions in the world.
The report points out that China’s economic growth is influenced by decisions and guidance from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which demands further improvement of manufacturing competitiveness and promotion of exports.
China’s economic growth model is posing increasing challenges to Europe, other industrial economies in East Asia, Canada, and Mexico.
One fundamental economic axiom is that when two entities engage in trade, both should benefit. However, this theory relies on a free, rules-based global order.
After more than twenty years of being a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has become the world’s second-largest economy and the largest exporter due to international free trade. But the CCP follows a vastly different economic ideology.
In 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping proposed a ‘dual circulation’ system for the Chinese economy, aiming to reduce reliance on international supply chains while ensuring domestic production independence and self-sufficiency.
Xi emphasized that China must not relinquish low-end manufacturing sectors such as toys and clothing. Beijing also discourages Chinese companies investing overseas from transferring key technologies, such as production techniques for iPhones and batteries.
Looking at history, countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea have also been export-oriented economies, but as law-abiding members of the international order, they do not fear economic interdependence and do not attempt to eliminate imports. As their domestic industries move towards higher value-added activities, they allow low-end manufacturing to shift to poorer countries.
Rush Doshi, a China expert and former member of the National Security Council under the United States President Biden, told “The Wall Street Journal” that the development of these countries “comes from a desire for prosperity,” which differs greatly from (communist) China.
“Beijing adopts a fortress mentality, viewing industrial dominance as the key to wealth and power. These objectives are deeply rooted in nationalism and the Communist Party (ideology),” he added.
Many countries are discontent with Beijing’s economic strategy because it is squeezing their manufacturing and export opportunities, yet no country has found a solution.
The Trump administration released a report on Thursday, December 4, titled “United States National Security Strategy,” proposing to rebalance the U.S.-China economic relationship by prioritizing reciprocity and fairness to restore America’s economic independence.
The report states, “Trade with China should be balanced and focused on non-sensitive areas.”
The U.S. also encourages allies to rectify imbalanced trading relationships with China. The report suggests, “We must encourage Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and other major countries to adopt policies that rebalance trade with China, promoting a shift in China’s economy towards consumer-driven direction, as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East cannot absorb China’s enormous excess capacity alone.”
The report also indicates that since the second term of the Trump administration, the U.S. has realized that the CCP has adapted to the shift in U.S. tariff policies since 2017 by using other middle-to-low-income countries to reposition the supply chain of Chinese goods to other countries before re-exporting to the U.S.