On May 22, Xi Jinping visited Shandong for inspection, but the Chinese Communist Party media delayed the report for a day. On May 23, Xi Jinping held a symposium in Jinan, Shandong, without inviting Li Qiang and Ding Xuexiang but surprisingly had Wang Huning in attendance. During Xi Jinping’s visit abroad from May 5 to 10, most of the members of the Political Bureau were arranged to leave Beijing, indicating significant changes in the power structure. The recent work rhythm may be disrupted, and even the military exercise around Taiwan seems to be forced to be delayed once again.
On May 19, Iranian President Raisi died in a plane crash, sparking investigations into the cause. The Chinese Communist Party media was quick to insinuate that Raisi’s helicopter, reportedly of American make, crashed due to poor maintenance caused by U.S. sanctions.
The unexpected death of the Iranian president has not stirred much controversy, but the Chinese Communist Party appears unsatisfied and continues to fan the flames. Analysts believe that with the situation in the Middle East just beginning to stabilize, the possibility of external assassination is minimal. The likelihood of internal strife leading to assassination, however, seems more plausible.
Like any authoritarian regime, Iran has various factions internally. The real power lies with Iran’s religious leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, with Raisi merely being a prominent figure in the foreground. With speculations that Khamenei’s time may be limited, Raisi was likely to succeed him. Raisi’s sudden demise necessitates a new successor, opening up opportunities for different factions to vie for power.
For the well-versed Chinese Communist Party, they might have more association with the situation than others. In 2023, rumors spread that the CCP leader feared prophecies of assassination or coup from texts like “Tui Bei Tu” and “Iron Tablet Book.” In June 2023, the head of the Russian Wagner Group, Primakov, staged a brief mutiny, and two months later, he died in a plane crash, with few believing it was genuinely an accident.
Moreover, Xi Jinping’s recent travels and the absence of some Political Bureau members like Li Qiang and Ding Xuexiang have raised suspicions. The sudden developments in the situation following the Iranian president’s death further hint at internal concern and potential upheavals in the top echelons of the Chinese leadership.