【Epoch Times, November 27, 2025】The G20 summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa on November 22 and 23, where the “G20 Critical Minerals Agreement” was passed to prevent global critical mineral value chains from being disrupted due to geopolitical tensions, unilateral trade measures, pandemics, or natural disasters. With China dominating the global critical mineral supply chain, this move is seen as targeting China and highlighting international concerns about China.
Strategic experts analyze that the layout of Trump’s global rare earth production country supply chain is almost complete, with the United States able to reach the countries China can reach and strengthening its positions where China cannot. With sufficient rare earth supply chains, the US will reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths by funding from the US, technology from Japan, and production in Australia in a cooperative model.
The G20 leaders passed a declaration at the South Africa summit focusing on securing critical mineral access. Leaders pledged to protect the global value chain of critical minerals by avoiding “disruptions” due to geopolitical tensions, unilateral trade measures that violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, pandemics, or natural disasters.
Earlier this year, due to the escalation of the US-China trade war, China began controlling the export of critical minerals, weaponizing it and causing disruptions in global supply chains. Former US trade negotiator and current Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Cutler, pointed out that the G20 agreement is seen as targeting China and reflecting strong international concerns about China.
According to the Financial Times on the 24th, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang officially announced the launch of the “Green Mineral International Trade and Economic Cooperation Initiative” at the G20 summit in South Africa on the 23rd. Nineteen countries participating in this initiative include Cambodia, Nigeria, Myanmar, Zimbabwe, and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, among others.
Beijing’s initiative is seen as a response to efforts led by the US to establish a “non-Chinese rare earth supply chain”.
During Trump’s Asia trip in late October, agreements focusing on rare earth and critical mineral supply chain cooperation were signed with Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, nations now able to produce rare earths.
With Beijing recently expanding its control over foreign rare earths and related technologies, Pakistan exported its first batch of rare earth minerals to the US in September, kicking off a $500 million cooperation agreement.
In early November, Trump also met with leaders from five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan – at the “C5+1” summit at the White House, announcing the US’s push for diversification of critical mineral supply chains, particularly addressing the supply security of rare earths and other advanced technology core resources.
Additionally, since taking office, Trump expressed interest in purchasing Greenland for national security reasons. Apart from its strategic location, Greenland has the world’s eighth-largest reserves of rare earth elements at about 1.5 million tons, close to the US’s known reserves of 1.9 million tons.
According to Yeh Tsung-chi, former dean of the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies at Taiwan’s National Defense University, China is actively cooperating with these 19 countries as two-thirds of China’s rare earth imports come from Myanmar, but even Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia have signed mineral agreements with the US. Yeh Tsung-chi emphasized that countries where China can exert influence, the US can reach as well, meaning that important rare earth-producing countries surrounding China have signed mineral agreements with the US.
“China wants to establish a so-called ‘Green Alliance’, but as soon the US intervenes, it can likely be immediately dismantled as the US holds too many chips, including the threat of tariffs. This means that Trump’s global rare earth production layout is already complete,” Yeh Tsung-chi said.
According to data from the US Geological Survey in 2024, 77% of rare earth imports into the US come from mainland China. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry data also indicates that nearly 60% of Japan’s rare earth supply relies on China, while the European Union, committed to green transition, also relies on about 46% of rare earths from China.
A November 25 Reuters report analyzing data from the International Energy Agency shows that rare earth project reserves worth several billion dollars globally will to some extent help the US reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths. By 2030, China is expected to supply around 60% of the world’s critical magnet manufacturing rare earths, while the US is anticipated to meet about 95% of its domestic demand.
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, recently inaugurated a new rare earth magnet processing center at eVAC Magnetics in Sumter County, South Carolina, stating that it is the first magnet produced in the US in 25 years, aiming to break China’s monopoly on the US supply chain and forecasting continued industrial growth in 2026 and 2027.
In fact, as early as 2010, Japan became the first country targeted by China’s rare earth embargo in response to the sovereignty dispute over the Senkaku Islands. However, Japan has since actively pursued supply chain diversification, technological innovation, and reduced reliance on China, dropping its rare earth imports from over 90% to about 58%, significantly increasing supply chain resilience.
Although China currently produces most of the world’s rare earths, Japan will launch a pioneering global trial project in January next year to extract rare earth minerals from near-seabed deposits. Estimates suggest that the seabed around Nishinoshima alone contains about 16 million tons of rare earths, ranking third globally.
Japanese Prime Minister Soi Kasai recently stated that Japan and the US will jointly develop rare earth mines in the sea near Minamitori Island in the Pacific, marking a new step in deepening economic and security cooperation between the two countries.
To strengthen cooperation with Australia in rare earths and critical minerals to counter China’s increased export controls, President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement on key minerals and rare earths at the White House Cabinet Room on October 20.
A report by Bloomberg News mentioned that Australia ranks fourth globally in rare earth reserves and has been positioning itself as a key alternative source of critical mineral supply to China.
According to reports from Mining Weekly and the Malaysian Oriental Daily, Australia’s rare earth giant Lynas Rare Earths announced at the end of October that it would build a heavy rare earth (HRE) separation facility at its Malaysian plant to significantly expand production and meet the growing demand for non-Chinese origin “heavy rare earth” products worldwide.
Japan is also investing in Australian companies like Lynas through official organizations such as JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation) to help establish rare earth separation and smelting facilities in Australia and Malaysia outside China, ensuring the supply chain is not monopolized.
French and Japanese cooperation, announced to build Europe’s largest rare earth recycling plant by the end of 2026 to ensure strategic mineral autonomy and provide rare earth materials for European industries such as automobiles and wind power, is a response to China’s long-term monopoly of strategic minerals.
In response to this, Yeh Tsung-chi stated that recent Sino-Japanese relations have hit their lowest point in nearly a decade due to diplomatic conflicts. He questioned why Beijing has yet to use rare earths as leverage given its past attempts against Japan have failed.
Yeh Tsung-chi further explained that with the alliance forming around rare earth production sources, the current cooperation model involves the US providing funding, Japan providing technology, and production taking place in Australia.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in a Financial Times interview post the anticipated “Trump-Xi Summit” that Beijing’s threats to halt rare earth exports are a “real mistake,” predicting China’s dominance in the rare earth field can only be maintained for one to two years at most, expressing confidence that the US can secure alternative sources within two years.
Bessent further emphasized that China has given everyone a warning, and their actions were a “real mistake”. He asserted that the US and Chinese leaders have achieved a “balance”, preventing Beijing from using critical minerals as a coercive tool.
Hau Tsenga-yuan, director of the Cyber Security and Decision Simulation Research Institute at Taiwan’s National Defense University’s Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, recently stated that the US under the Trump administration is bolstering the security of its critical mineral, rare earth, and semiconductor supply chains.
Hau pointed out specific actions taken by the US, including investing $35.6 million to acquire 10% equity in Canadian mineral exploration and development company Trilogy Metals, discussions with Critical Metals for an approximately 8% stake to secure its rights in Greenland’s largest rare earth project, acquiring 5% equity in Lithium Americas through stock warrants, and obtaining a 5% economic stake in the Thacker Pass project.
Hau also mentioned investments in MP Materials by the US Department of Defense acquiring 15% of the company’s shares in July 2025 and ongoing negotiations with the White House by the USA Rare Earth company that mainly produces sintered neodymium magnets.
Yeh Tsung-chi believes that Beijing’s control over rare earths actually prompts nations to recognize the strategic value of rare earths and accelerate efforts to decouple from China. Even the US is now restarting rare earth production, which was previously impossible. This shift highlights the importance of rare earths as critical strategic resources for democratic nations in countering the potential leverage of China.
However, Zhao Junshuo, spokesperson for the US-China-Taiwan War Situation Room and columnist for Taiwan’s think tank, expressed to Epoch Times that while the US has concrete actions regarding rare earth supply chain layout, there is not yet a comprehensive strategy in place.
Zhao suggested that perhaps the US could establish a special official for rare earths at the national level in the White House because currently there are very few technical personnel in the US. Reportedly, mainland China has about 100,000 engineers related to rare earths, with about 40 rare earth-related programs in its universities, while the US lacks these capabilities. Therefore, some aspects of the US’s catch-up efforts may face challenges.
Yeh Tsung-chi believes that the US does not face the issue of “overtaking on a curve.” Instead, countries like the US and Japan are reviving the production of these technologies that China originally bought or stole from Western countries, showcasing the determination of democratic nations.