Recently, representatives from the US and China military held the 2025 Maritime Military Security Consultation Mechanism Conference in Hawaii. Experts believe that this consultation highlights the increasing military interaction risks in multiple hotspot areas between the two sides, but the effectiveness of the mechanism itself is limited, and the fundamental geopolitical opposition between the US and China is difficult to resolve.
The US and Chinese representatives held the second working group meeting and annual meeting of the Maritime Military Security Consultation Mechanism (MMCA) in Honolulu from November 18th to 20th. The US Indo-Pacific Command issued a statement on November 22nd saying that the forum aimed to promote exchanges between the two sides, with a focus on “reducing the risk of unsafe and unprofessional behavior.”
In the statement, the Chinese navy mentioned that the US and China discussed typical cases of encounters between their naval and air forces to help frontline forces conduct interactions more professionally and safely, which would help both sides avoid misunderstandings, misjudgments, and crisis risk management.
The MMCA meeting in Honolulu marked the first working-level talks between the US and China military since the start of President Trump’s second term.
The establishment of the US-China Maritime Military Security Consultation Mechanism is based on relevant agreements signed by both countries in 1998 and is divided into three levels: annual meetings, special meetings, and working group meetings. MMCA was temporarily suspended by China after Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan but was resumed after the US-China summit in San Francisco in November 2023 and related meetings were held in Shanghai in April 2025.
Su Ziyun, Director of the Strategic and Resource Institute of the Taiwan Defense Security Research Institute, analyzed that this consultation mainly reflects the willingness of the US and China to maintain a minimum level of dialogue. However, in the context of tension in multiple hotspot areas at sea, the risk of incidents is increasing.
He explained that since the establishment of the mechanism in 1998, China has continued to engage in aggressive behavior. Even after the signing of the US-China Rules of Behavior for Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters in 2014, China has unilaterally engaged in unsafe interceptions, including firing flares, flying close, occupying lanes, and using laser interference.
Researcher Shen Mingshi of the Taiwan Defense Security Research Institute believes that such procedural negotiations demonstrate the willingness of both sides to avoid conflict escalation. However, “the CCP may not necessarily abide by such negotiation mechanisms, and if the CCP wants to deliberately create incidents, the results of such negotiations will have no effect.”
The background of the US-China consultation is the escalating tension in several hotspot areas in the Western Pacific, increasing the risk of the US military being involved in military conflicts. Su Ziyun stated that China has adopted aggressive practices in expanding its maritime power, bullying neighboring countries. As the primary naval power in the Western Pacific, the US is bound to clash strategically with China.
Recently, China has escalated its military intimidation against Japan. After Japanese Prime Minister Koichi Hidaka issued the statement “If Taiwan has problems” on November 7th, the Chinese Embassy in Japan cited the “enemy state clause” of the United Nations Charter on November 21st, claiming that China has the right to “conduct military operations directly against Japan without Security Council authorization.” China’s military exercises in the Yellow Sea were suddenly extended from November 17th to November 25th.
According to the US-Japan Security Treaty, the US deploys military bases on Japanese territory and promises that if a contracting state is attacked within “territories under the administration of Japan,” the two countries will defend each other.
Regarding the Taiwan Strait, the US reiterated its support for Taiwan as “rock-solid,” while China’s military harassment of Taiwan shows no signs of abating. Incursions by Chinese coast guard ships into the waters of Kinmen have increased significantly. The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration stated that on November 20th, four Chinese coast guard ships entered the waters of Kinmen twice, and the Coast Guard dispatched patrol boats for monitoring.
At the same time, Taiwan’s vicinity is one of the most important maritime transportation routes globally, with US warships frequently traversing the Taiwan Strait to maintain regional stability, and encounters with Chinese warships in the region have become commonplace.
In the South China Sea, in response to China’s provocations against the Philippines and other countries, a multilateral military exercise involving the Philippines, the US, and Japan was conducted in the South China Sea on November 14th to 15th. Meanwhile, the Southern Theater Command of the Chinese military organized bomber formations to cruise the South China Sea.
Furthermore, during the US’s execution of “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea, there have been frequent frictions with Chinese vessels and aircraft, with China repeatedly engaging in dangerous close encounters.
Regarding the frequent maritime conflicts, Shen Mingshi pointed out China’s “gray zone” tactics. He stated that “China often uses legal cover for illegal activities or pretends to be civilian fishing boats or coast guard vessels,” surrounding rival warships with militia and coast guard vessels.
He analyzed that this tactic can “create buffers on one hand and escalate pressures on another, from militia vessels to coast guard vessels to navy vessels,” forcing the adversary to feel the pressure. This tactic is equally applicable when dealing with US warships, increasing the complexity and unpredictability of US-China maritime interactions.
Both experts are cautious about the actual effectiveness of the Maritime Security Consultation Mechanism.
Shen Mingshi analyzed China’s motivations for participating in the negotiations. He believes that when China is at a disadvantage in naval strength or strategic attitude, it will seek negotiations with the US to establish a mechanism, with the “main purpose being to restrain the other party or compel the US to abide by the mechanism,” but China itself “will not comply when necessary.”
He also stated that internal power struggles within the CCP may prompt the coast guard or navy to “create incidents through territorial conflicts to serve as a bargaining chip in internal power conflicts.”
Su Ziyun believes that the US will not easily change its stance towards China. He stated that China is attempting to weaken US support for Japan and Taiwan through tactical gestures, but multiple US documents have clearly indicated that China is the biggest threat.
In conclusion, it is evident that tensions and potential conflicts in various maritime regions continue to rise, underscoring the complex dynamics at play between the US, China, and their neighboring countries in the Asia-Pacific region.