The National Turkey Federation (NTF), based in Washington D.C., estimates that Americans will consume nearly 30 million turkeys this Thanksgiving, almost as many as the population of Texas, the second largest state in the U.S.
While turkeys remain the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving dinner table, turkey farmers in the U.S. are facing challenges with declining demand this holiday season. The ongoing outbreaks of avian flu have disrupted turkey supply, leading to rising market prices and threatening the livelihoods of turkey farms.
Over the past century, consumption of turkey in the U.S. has fluctuated due to various factors such as agriculture, technology, and health trends.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, in the 1930s and 1940s, per capita turkey consumption in the U.S. was less than 3 pounds annually. By 1960, this number doubled as producers introduced breeds with higher meat yield.
In the 1980s, advancements in production technology and the introduction of processed products like lunchmeat, ground turkey, and deli slices made turkey a popular food choice. With widespread marketing campaigns, turkey meat became a favored low-fat, healthy protein option among consumers.
Subsequently, annual turkey consumption increased from around 10 pounds per person in 1980 to 18 pounds per person in 1996, reaching its peak.
However, turkey consumption has since been steadily declining. It is projected that in 2025, per capita turkey consumption in the U.S. will slightly exceed 13 pounds, hitting the lowest level in nearly 40 years.
Furthermore, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, the total turkey consumption in the U.S. in 2025 is expected to reach 4.5 billion pounds, the lowest since 1990.
The USDA estimates that turkey production in 2025 will be at its lowest level in 40 years, with 195 million turkeys raised. This marks the second consecutive year of declining production levels, with a projected decrease of around 3% from 2024 and about 11% from 2023.
Heidi Diestel, a turkey farmer from Sonora, California, revealed that consumers are “gradually moving away from highly processed meats.” Her family has been raising turkeys for four generations.
Since February 2022, outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have led to the deaths of nearly 21 million turkeys in the U.S., accounting for approximately one-tenth of the current turkey inventory.
As of November 2025…