On Friday, November 21, the University of Michigan released the latest data showing that the final value of the Consumer Confidence Index in November was 51.0, exceeding the market expectation of 50.6. This was a slight increase from the preliminary value of 50.3 released two weeks prior, but lower than the October figure of 53.6.
This data was released as Americans prepared for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and the shopping season of Black Friday.
Despite the slight rebound, the index remains the second-lowest on record, only slightly higher than the lowest point of 50.0 recorded in June 2022.
This data reflects consumers’ ongoing concerns about their ability to afford purchases, with worries about the “affordability of consumer goods” remaining unmitigated.
In early November, consumers faced unprecedented challenges due to the federal government shutdown, which resulted in disruptions to food assistance programs, hindered air travel, and impacted the salaries of many federal employees.
Economic concerns also extended to the job market – despite a net increase of 119,000 jobs in September, the unemployment rate still climbed to 4.4%.
The Current Economic Conditions Index plummeted by 12.8% to a historic low of 51.1, indicating a decline of over 10% in the assessment of personal financial situations and the purchase of major durable goods.
However, the Index of Consumer Expectations saw a slight increase of 1.4% to 51.0, compared to October’s 50.3.
This index tracks consumers’ outlook on their own financial situations and the overall economy in the short and long term. Since November 2024, the expectation index has fallen by 33.7%.
By the end of the month, consumer confidence in holding the largest stock assets erased earlier gains, slipping approximately 2 percentage points from October. This trend may be attributed to recent stock market volatility.
The S&P 500 index has dropped by around 5% from its recent highs at the end of October, with downward pressure stemming from market concerns about whether large-scale investments in artificial intelligence can truly bring economic returns.
Expectations for year-on-year inflation have inched down from 4.6% to 4.5%, showing a decreasing trend for three consecutive months, but still significantly higher than the 3.3% recorded in January.
A survey conducted by the University of Michigan indicated that long-term inflation expectations have fallen from 3.9% to 3.4%, which is seen as a reassuring signal for the Federal Reserve.