Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takashi has rejected the Chinese Communist Party’s demands and reiterated that she will not withdraw her statement regarding Taiwan’s security. She emphasized that Japan’s position in dealing with major regional security crises remains unchanged.
Takashi recently became the first Japanese leader in decades to publicly link the Taiwan Strait crisis to the possibility of Japan deploying its military. On November 7th, during a parliamentary session, Takashi stated that a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could be seen as a “threat to Japan’s survival.” This statement essentially provides a legal basis for Japan to exercise its collective self-defense rights and intervene militarily in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict, prompting a strong reaction from the Chinese Communist Party.
Before heading to South Africa to participate in the G20 summit on Friday, Takashi reiterated Japan’s stance. When asked if she planned to retract her remarks that angered Beijing, she stated, “Regarding situations that threaten Japan’s survival, the government will make comprehensive judgments based on all available information and the specific circumstances as they occur.”
“I have clarified this position several times in my responses. The government’s position remains consistent,” she said.
However, Takashi also expressed her desire to continue efforts to improve relations between Japan and China following her meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea last month.
Due to Takashi’s remarks, the Chinese Communist Party has taken a series of economic retaliatory measures against Japan, including warning Chinese tourists not to travel to Japan, suspending the resumption of seafood imports from Japan, and halting the approval of new Japanese films. On Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters that if Japan refuses to withdraw Takashi’s Taiwan remarks, China will take “severe countermeasures.”
The dispute with Beijing has become the first major diplomatic challenge Takashi has faced since taking office as Japan’s prime minister last month. Despite pressure from Chinese officials, state media, and diplomats demanding she retract her statements, Japan has refused to do so.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense released a statement on Friday, announcing that Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi will visit military bases in the Okinawa Islands from November 22nd to 23rd. Koizumi will visit facilities on Yonaguni Island, Ishigaki Island, and Miyako Island. Yonaguni Island is only about 100 kilometers (68 miles) away from Taiwan.
Experts believe that Takashi is unlikely to retract her Taiwan remarks. Megan O’Neil, editor of Bloomberg Economics Research, and analyst Taro Kimura stated that if Takashi were to back down, it would weaken Japan’s ability to deter Chinese military actions in the Taiwan Strait. Moreover, she would be seen as politically weak by her supporters, potentially alienating her main backers – the right-wing conservatives.
Takashi enjoys high domestic support and has little reason to compromise with China.
There seems to be little willingness domestically in Japan to make concessions to China. Yasuhide Nakayama, a member of the ruling party and former assistant defense minister, stated that discussing security realities truthfully is not provocative but rather a sovereign right for every nation.
“Attempting to shape or distort Japan’s security debate from the outside violates the basic principle of non-interference in international law,” Nakayama posted on the X social media platform.
Japan Innovation Party’s lawmaker and member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense, Hei Seki, stated in an interview in Tokyo on Thursday that Takashi should not retract her Taiwan remarks. According to Seki, Takashi’s statements make it clearer to China that Japan is prepared to assist the United States in maintaining Taiwan’s independence.
“As for the Taiwan issue, I think it is actually a good thing for the Japanese prime minister to make some bold statements,” he said. “This can have a certain deterrent effect on Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.”
Seki pointed out that while there are currently no signs of softening in China’s rhetoric, Beijing’s actions so far have not reached a level that restricts economic exchanges with Japan. China has only issued travel warnings to Japan, rather than a comprehensive ban. He also stated that China is aware of the limitations of measures it can take against Japanese businesses operating in China.
“What if China expels all Japanese companies? What would happen to Japan?” he asked. “Japanese companies would suffer losses, but the Chinese government cannot do that. Why? Because these Japanese companies employ a large number of Chinese people.”
He noted that Japan does not need to rush to seek compromise, as China will eventually find a suitable time to ease the threats.
“Having studied the behavior of the Chinese Communist regime for many years, I understand their way of doing things,” Seki said. “They always display arrogance and intimidation towards those who surrender or show weakness. Conversely, they are polite to strong opponents. That’s China for you.”
Seki believes that Japan should not overreact to every statement from Beijing but should consider expelling the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian. Earlier this month, Xue Jian posted a now-deleted message on X threatening to cut off Takashi’s head.
“If we do not deter such statements, it will create a favorable precedent for them,” Seki said. “No matter how outrageous or terrifying their statements are, they will believe that such actions are acceptable in Japan. If this happens, stable Japan-China relations will never be achieved.”