Descartes, a supply chain technology provider, stated on Monday (November 10th) that due to constantly changing tariff policies, importers are approaching the import of goods into the United States with caution. In October, the volume of container imports in the United States decreased by 7.5% compared to the same period last year, with imports from China plummeting by 16.3%. However, China’s imports in October increased by 5.4% compared to the previous month.
In the United States, ports handled a total of 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) last month, a 0.1% decrease from September, falling below the typical range of 2.4 to 2.6 million TEU that marks the peak of trade. This marks only the second October in the past decade to see a month-on-month decline.
As holiday merchandise continues to be shelved with ample inventory, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expect that import volumes in the United States will slow down in November and December, possibly dropping below 2 million TEU.
The anticipated decline in imports this year partly reflects a surge in imports at the end of 2024, which stemmed from concerns about potential port strikes and tariff-related advance purchasing behaviors – factors that led to goods scheduled for shipment in later months arriving early.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, stated, “We expect import volumes to slightly decrease this year compared to 2024, with a larger decrease expected in the first quarter of 2026.”
One of the United States’ major trading partners, China, saw a 5.4% increase in imports in October, reaching 803,901 TEU. However, compared to 2024, imports in major categories generally decreased, with furniture and bedding down by 13.6%, toys and sports equipment by 30.4%, and electrical equipment by 17.2%.
Descartes noted, “The import data for October reflects the ongoing cautious stance of importers, with a general decline year-on-year and limited growth month-on-month. With recent trade negotiations between China and the United States reaching new trade terms, China’s share of imports into the U.S. may stabilize in the short term.”
The 20% tariff on Chinese imports known as the “fentanyl” tariff was reduced to 10% on November 10th, while measures to increase corresponding tariffs were postponed for a year. Meanwhile, the 10% tariff imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in effect, with the Supreme Court reviewing its legality.
According to Descartes’ statistics, imports from the top ten source countries to the United States increased by 1.3% in October compared to the previous month, mainly driven by China’s recovery but offset by declines from other Asian countries. Imports from India, Thailand, and Vietnam decreased by 19%, 6%, and 4.8% respectively.
(This article is based on relevant reports from Reuters)