With the conclusion of the New York City mayoral election, the anticipated policies of Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani are expected to profoundly impact the real estate market in the greater New York area. Multiple media outlets have reported that due to concerns about future tax hikes and left-wing policy reforms, high-income individuals within the city are expediently moving out of urban areas and shifting towards affluent suburbs, causing housing prices and bidding wars to heat up once again. This wave of phenomena has been dubbed the “Mamdani Effect” by real estate professionals.
According to Newsweek, since Mamdani’s victory in the primaries, there has been a noticeable uptick in real estate transactions in areas such as Westchester County, northern New Jersey, and the towns of Greenwich and Darien in Connecticut. The number of home signings in Westchester County has increased by approximately 15% since August compared to the same period last year, with many buyers admitting that key considerations for their relocation include “tax burden, safety, and space.”
Real estate agents have noted that many high-net-worth buyers are eager to secure properties in the suburbs before the new mayor’s tax policies take effect.
One of Mamdani’s campaign promises is to impose a 2% city tax on New Yorkers earning over $1 million annually, estimated to generate around $4 billion in tax revenue per year to fund public housing and childcare services. While the policy details have yet to be officially announced, the anticipated sentiment has already prompted early reactions in the high-end real estate market.
Mortgage Professional America reported that this phenomenon is “almost like the mass exodus from New York in the early days of the pandemic, just more urgent.”
Luxury housing markets in towns like Greenwich, Darien, and New Canaan in Connecticut have seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with some properties attracting over a dozen competing buyers leading to final sale prices generally exceeding the listing price by several percentage points. Real estate brokers described the situation as: “Low inventory, coupled with political uncertainty, has buyers making offers on properties without even viewing them.”
In Westchester County, real estate agents noted that the average number of viewings per property has increased by approximately 25% since summer, and bidding wars are reaching multimillion-dollar amounts, setting new highs in recent years.
Industry experts believe that the “Mamdani Effect” reflects the immediate impact of political and psychological factors on the real estate market. If this trend becomes a long-term pattern, it signals a new landscape on the horizon for the real estate market in the greater New York area.