According to a estimation released by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank on Thursday, November 6th, it is suggested that the unemployment rate in the United States for the month of October may slightly increase to the highest level in four years. This is due to the slowing pace of hiring for unemployed workers and an increase in other departure situations such as layoffs.
The regional Federal Reserve bank estimates that the unemployment rate climbed to 4.36% last month, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics usually reports the rounded figure as 4.4%, compared to the September rate of 4.35%.
Since the federal government suspended the release of economic reports due to the shutdown, this Federal Reserve bank has been publishing estimates of the unemployment rate every two months. The economic data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the Census Bureau. The BLS recently reported a 4.3% unemployment rate for August, the highest level since October 2021 when it was 4.5%.
The Federal Reserve Bank stated, “The October 2025 reference week used by the BLS to estimate the unemployment rate (October 12 to October 18) coincided with the government shutdown that began in early October. This specific factor may only partially be reflected in the final report of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Labor Market Indicators for October 2025; the Congressional Budget Office estimates that up to 750,000 federal government employees were forced to take unpaid leave during the shutdown, which is equivalent to 0.4% of the total civilian workforce (as of August 2025 data).”
(This article was compiled based on reporting from Reuters)