Amid the downturn in the Chinese real estate market and a sharp decline in birth rates, traditional “school district housing” has transitioned from a scarce asset to a high-risk liability. In Beijing, a single mother made a decisive choice to adopt an extreme “rental lifestyle” by replacing the valueless old school district housing with accommodation in a five-star hotel.
An article titled “In Beijing, Living in a Five-Star Hotel with Daughter Instead of Buying School District Housing” by the publication “Daily Characters” reveals the story of a single mother in Beijing who opted to live with her daughter, Beibei, who is in primary school, in a five-star hotel located in the east second ring road of Beijing. They check in on Monday and check out on Friday.
Beibei has been living in the hotel for three years since starting first grade. Every Monday, she arrives with her luggage, and every Friday, they return home. The mother shared various details of their hotel life, including the perks they enjoy. For instance, having meals at the hotel’s restaurant saved them 45,000 yuan over three years; unlimited consumption of imported capsule coffee in the room amounted to potential savings of 7,500 yuan over three years. Additionally, access to dedicated housekeeping services, a swimming pool, and a gym cost 15,000 yuan annually for a couple’s membership card, resulting in savings of 45,000 yuan over three years. Parking in the city center costs 10 yuan per hour with no upper limit, but hotel guests can park for free, saving them 54,000 yuan over three years.
The single mother mentioned that compared to purchasing school district housing for her daughter’s education commute, she has saved up to 400,000 yuan over the three years of living in a five-star hotel.
She also explained her thought process in choosing to live in a hotel after comparing buying a house versus renting one. She stated, “Living in a hotel for schooling was a carefully calculated decision for me.” She calculated that buying school district housing to maintain their quality of life would require at least 20 million yuan in Beijing’s current property market. Considering recent trends, this could potentially result in losses of millions of yuan annually.
Traditionally, school district housing in major Chinese cities has been highly sought after due to the scarcity and uneven distribution of quality education resources. Chinese parents attach great importance to their children’s education, investing significant time and money to secure spots in prestigious schools. School district housing acts as the “key” to these coveted institutions, embodying parents’ earnest aspirations for their children’s futures.
However, with the continuous decline in birth rates, the future enrollment of students will significantly decrease, impacting the supply and demand dynamics of educational resources. With a reduced student population, competition between schools will intensify, leading schools to implement various measures to enhance their teaching quality and competitiveness to attract students. Some schools may focus on bolstering their teaching staff, introducing excellent teachers, and improving teaching facilities to narrow the gap with top-tier schools.
Looking at the reality of China’s declining birth rates, Beibei’s mother believes that obsolete and valueless old housing no longer holds investment worth. She revealed that Beibei is in the third grade with 44 students in her class, while the first grade intake for their school this year is only 25 students.
China’s birth rate began declining in 2017, with a sharp drop starting in 2018, resulting in a reduction of over two million births that year. This downward trend has continued, with only 9.02 million births recorded in 2023. Kindergartens experienced negative growth in enrollment numbers in 2021, leading to closures, and by 2024, primary schools were similarly affected.
In May of this year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released alarming data. In 2024, kindergarten enrollment decreased by 5.09 million compared to the previous year, and primary school student numbers decreased by 2.516 million nationwide. The massive year-on-year decrease in primary school students was described as a “cliff-like drop,” attributed to the sustained decline in birth rates.
Children born in 2018 coincidentally entered primary school in 2024, explaining the drastic drop in primary school enrollment that year. With the ongoing decrease in birth rates, the number of primary school students will continue to shrink in the coming years, a trend that may be difficult to reverse.
Reports from “21st Century Economic Report” show a decline in primary school enrollments in various districts of Beijing. By 2024, it is projected that there will be 34,000 fewer primary school students in Haidian District and 20,000 fewer in Xicheng District. In Shenzhen, the situation is more complex, with high demand for junior high school district housing while a declining trend in enrollment points for primary and kindergarten levels in 2024. More schools, including prominent institutions, are now implementing policies where renting a property guarantees admission.
Furthermore, population movement and urbanization are crucial factors influencing the value of school district housing. Historically, a significant influx of people migrated from rural areas and small towns to major cities, leading to a continuous population increase in urban centers and a growing demand for educational resources. To ensure their children receive quality education in urban areas, many families opted to purchase school district housing, contributing to the rise in prices. However, with declining birth rates and shifts in population structures, the trend of population movement may undergo changes in the future.