The United States and China are currently engaged in a technological arms race, competing for supremacy in future warfare through AI-driven drones, manned/unmanned team combat systems, and autonomous naval platforms. This competition could redefine the global military balance.
Recently, the US Navy signed a contract with General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) to design a collaborative combat aircraft, which is the next generation drone designed to operate in conjunction with manned aircraft. These semi-autonomous drones, often referred to as “loyal wingmen,” aim to enhance the operational range, strike capability, and survivability of manned aircraft while reducing risks for crew members in high-threat environments.
Collaborative combat aircraft represent a significant leap in aerial warfare development, incorporating artificial intelligence, autonomy, and human command. With modular mission capabilities, stealth features, and relatively low costs, these drones can quickly adapt to execute various tasks like air defense, reconnaissance, or electronic warfare. Operated under human supervision, they enhance the firepower and battlefield awareness of traditional fighter formations.
One advantage of these drones lies in their scalability and cost-effectiveness. Training a US Air Force fighter pilot takes six to seven years and costs range from $5.6 million (F-16) to over $13 million (F-22). In the same timeframe, thousands of drones can be produced and deployed at a fraction of the cost of training pilots. Designed for rapid production and large-scale deployment, drones serve as tactical expendable aircraft, overwhelming enemy defenses with swarms of drones or executing high-risk missions that manned aircraft find challenging.
Compared to human pilots, another advantage of collaborative combat drones is their ability to undergo continuous upgrades as technology advances. While manned aircraft are constrained by training cycles and human endurance, AI-driven drones can instantly upgrade through software and hardware updates, enabling the military to enhance combat efficiency, response rates, and formation coordination without grounding or retraining personnel.
While the US is pushing forward with its collaborative combat drone program, China is rapidly developing its own initiatives. During a military parade in Beijing on September 3rd, China showcased a new generation of drones for aerial combat, including two large stealth unmanned combat aircraft known as “Unmanned Aerial Dominance Fighters” and at least two small “collaborative combat drones” modeled after US designs like Kratos’ XQ-58A “Valkyrie” and Boeing’s “Phantom Bat.”
This demonstration indicates that China is developing cost-effective collaborative combat drones alongside advanced stealth unmanned combat aircraft, while also pursuing the development of sixth-generation manned aircraft and new stealth bombers.
The larger B-type “Unmanned Aerial Dominance Fighters” resemble single-engine stealth fighters and are believed to have supersonic flight capabilities. The smaller A-type versions appear optimized for deployment on aircraft carriers. Additionally, the parade featured an upgraded GJ-11 “Sharp Sword” stealth combat drone with foldable wings suited for carrier deployment, along with a compact unmanned shipborne helicopter already in service.
The technical competition between the US and China in the high-end semiconductor field has elevated the competition for collaborative combat aircraft to a crucial dimension. The US maintains a lead in chip design and development, crucial for AI, autonomous systems, and next-generation weapon systems. US export controls on cutting-edge chips aim to slow China’s access to large-scale, high-speed AI-driven systems. Given that collaborative combat aircraft and unmanned systems increasingly rely on advanced sensors, processors, and communication technology, America’s semiconductor superiority gives it an advantage over the Chinese military.
Beyond the skies, naval power remains a key advantage for the US in the competition between manned and unmanned weapons. The US Navy boasts 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, more than any other country, while China currently has around 3 aircraft carriers but is ramping up construction of more carriers.
Having a larger and more advanced carrier fleet enables the US to achieve integrated manned/unmanned military systems as a combat platform globally. While China is rapidly expanding its carrier numbers and enhancing training levels and combat theories, the US holds the lead in fleet size, combat experience, and logistical support.
Simultaneously, China is conducting innovative experiments in unmanned force projection, exploring the concepts of airborne and maritime “drone carriers.” The “Jiutian SS Unmanned Aircraft” is a high-altitude long-endurance aircraft capable of carrying and launching up to 100 small drones with a range of thousands of miles. Additionally, China is developing the Type 076 amphibious assault ship, equipped with a full flight deck, electromagnetic catapults, and arrestor systems, aimed at operating unmanned combat aircraft and fixed-wing drones instead of traditional manned fighters.
While the US has not introduced the massive drone “carriers” concept like China, the US Navy is developing solutions more focused on real-world needs for maritime operations. In 2022, the Navy issued a solicitation for building low-cost, expendable unmanned carriers for towing or launching small unmanned vessels in contested waters. These vessels, designed modularity and equipped with GPS navigation systems, can operate up to 3 nautical miles off the coast, capable of carrying or towing 20-foot containers with small drones for deployment in designated areas.
While the US Navy’s unmanned “carrier” project may not match the scale of China’s ambitious “drone carriers,” the project combined with the development of collaborative combat aircraft underscores the shift towards autonomy, adaptability, and manned/unmanned team warfare in modern warfare. Both countries are investing heavily in AI-driven military systems to network aerial, maritime, and space combat operations.
Winning the AI-enabled autonomous arms race is crucial for the US to maintain its status as the world’s top military power. Currently, the US maintains an advantage in quantity and technology thanks to superior logistics support, a vast satellite communication network, and military bases worldwide. However, as with every new stage of military innovation, the US must continue to invest heavily in defense technology, conducting research and development, producing updates, and advancing weapon systems to ensure strategic superiority over China.
Author’s Bio:
Dr. Antonio Graceffo is a China economic analyst who has worked and lived in Asia for over twenty years. He holds a bachelor’s degree from Shanghai Institute of Physical Education, a master’s degree in business administration from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and is currently researching defense issues at the American Military University. He is the author of the book “Beyond the Belt and Road: China’s Global Economic Expansion” (2019).