Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia and North Korea have been getting closer. Not only did Putin and Kim Jong-un have a rare meeting, but Putin also gifted Kim Jong-un a luxury car. The Kremlin spokesperson recently told Russian state media that arrangements are being made for President Putin’s visit to North Korea. There are reports that the Chinese Communist Party is increasingly uneasy about the strengthening relationship between Russia and North Korea.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, diplomats and officials have suggested that as the relationship between Putin and Kim Jong-un becomes closer, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is feeling increasingly uneasy. Putin and Kim Jong-un are the two most important but also the most unstable international partners for the Chinese leader.
In fact, even before Putin’s visit to China last week, China was concerned that Putin might directly rush to North Korea after his visit to China. Diplomats and officials told The Wall Street Journal that if Putin were to do so, it could exacerbate Western concerns about the “three-sided authoritarian axis,” leading to further diplomatic isolation for Beijing.
Currently, China has faced condemnation from Western countries for covertly supporting Russia in the war in Ukraine and for not participating in UN sanctions against North Korea. The United States and Europe are important markets for China, and any further deterioration in US-China or EU-China relations would only harm Chinese businesses and further worsen the Chinese economy.
The report cited Sun Yun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, as saying that Beijing is trying to avoid creating the impression that China, Russia, and North Korea are engaged in trilateral cooperation in order to avoid being constrained by these two unpredictable partners.
Although the fact that Putin did not directly visit North Korea after his visit to China last week temporarily eased the concerns of the Chinese government, it does not mean that Putin does not plan to visit North Korea.
On May 18th, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the Russian state news agency TASS that preparations for Putin’s visit to North Korea are progressing smoothly.
“The preparations for the visit are underway,” Peskov said, but no travel dates were announced.
As Kim Jong-un seeks to reduce North Korea’s reliance on China, the diplomatic relations among China, Russia, and North Korea have become more complex. Kim Jong-un’s most high-profile move was publicly expressing support for Russia in the ongoing war and providing weapons, thus showing favor to Putin.
Sources told The Wall Street Journal that Russia and North Korea have not revealed to China the details of the discussions between Putin and Kim Jong-un at the rare summit held last fall, prompting Chinese diplomats to inquire with their Western counterparts about any agreements reached between the two leaders.
These sources said that the Chinese government is concerned that Russia may assist North Korea in enhancing its nuclear capabilities.
Assistant Professor Chee Meng Tan from the University of Nottingham Malaysia’s China Policy expert, in an article on The Conversation, said that China is actually worried that if North Korea becomes a mature nuclear-armed state, it could even detonate a nuclear weapon on Chinese territory.
While this may sound somewhat strange, it is not entirely implausible. Chee Meng stated that North Korea was once a vassal state of China. Therefore, when China intervened in the Korean War and even normalized relations with North Korea’s main enemies, such actions not only angered North Korea but also exposed historical traumas as a former vassal state to China.
Chee Meng said that if Beijing wants to maintain a significant foothold in North Korea, it must spare no effort to contain non-Chinese influences around Pyongyang. To this end, China has adopted a two-pronged approach. Firstly, China sent National People’s Congress Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji to visit North Korea last month, assuring Kim Jong-un of Beijing’s support. Secondly, China has provided weapons and technology to Russia to reduce Russia’s reliance on North Korean weaponry.
Facing accusations from the United States and Europe, China has consistently denied providing weapons to Russia.
The Ukraine war has brought Russia and North Korea closer. Putin seeks to obtain weapons from North Korea, while North Korea seeks nuclear assistance from Russia. Analysts monitoring the Russia-North Korea relationship believe that Kim Jong-un must tread carefully, as in the event of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, he will need to reserve ammunition to defend his country. However, analysts also point out that Kim Jong-un is eager to have Putin on his side as a potential resource for improving missile and nuclear programs.