【Epoch Times, May 22, 2024】The “new axis of evil” formed by the CCP, Russia, and Iran is viewed as a growing concern on the international stage. The unexpected death of Iranian President Rahe during a plane crash has sparked widespread attention on the impact on the CCP within the axis of evil, as well as the developments between the CCP, Russia, and Iran.
Amid this sensitive situation, the foreign ministers of China and Russia held urgent meetings. Experts analyze the CCP’s dual strategy, suggesting that regardless of the change in Iran’s presidency, the strategic relationship within the axis of evil consisting of the CCP, Russia, and Iran remains steadfast.
In October 2023, Mitch McConnell, the minority leader of the US Senate, referred to the CCP, Russia, North Korea, and Iran as the “new axis of evil” amidst the complex global backdrop of conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the war in Syria.
Confirming the news of President Rahe’s plane crash on May 20, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Astana during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization foreign ministers’ meeting. In Chinese media reports, Wang Yi stressed the need to prepare for bilateral exchanges throughout the year, increase mutual support, and strengthen the foundation of cooperation. Additionally, they discussed exchanging views on the situation in the Middle East.
Assistant researcher Chung Chih-tung from the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security shared with Epoch Times that the meeting between the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers served as a platform for intelligence exchange regarding Iran and perspectives on Rahe’s plane crash incident.
He further highlighted the main topics of discussion during the meeting, emphasizing the extensive agreements signed between Xi Jinping and Putin, aimed at implementing various aspects of cooperation. Taiwan-related issues also held significant weight during the talks.
“With the recent inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, Beijing took the opportunity to align with Russia in endorsing the ‘One China Principle’ and made statements regarding Taiwan,” Chung stated.
Speaking about the meeting between the two foreign ministers, Su Zi-yun, director of the Strategic Studies and Resources division within the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security, pointed out, “The dialogue between Beijing and Moscow serves to consolidate their core interests. Moscow currently requires financial support, while Beijing can acquire natural resources and access certain markets from Moscow, indicating a strategic exchange between the two nations.”
Su added, “In light of the so-called Ukraine crisis, Putin replaced the Minister of Defense with an economist, suggesting that Moscow is now focused on sustaining its war effort. Therefore, right after taking office, Putin rushed to visit Beijing to solidify their financial ties.”
He noted that Europe holds the purse strings for Beijing, with the US imposing new tariffs on the CCP. Thus, the European export market for China has become crucial. “Prior to Putin’s visit, Xi Jinping made trips to European countries like France and Hungary,” Su explained.
Following the news of Rahe’s sudden death, often dubbed “the Butcher of Tehran,” leaders of China and Russia expressed that they had lost a “good friend” and praised Rahe’s positive role in advancing the strategic partnership between the two countries. Chinese sources re-labeled relevant articles on the web with the black-and-white symbol typically used for the passing of CCP leaders.
In mid-March, China, Russia, and Iran conducted joint military exercises in the Arabian Sea. In March 2023, the CCP played a role in restoring diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, archrivals in the Middle East. China remains the largest buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil.
Chung Chih-tung explained that similar to Russia, Iran is facing severe sanctions from the West, and the CCP employs a dual strategy in handling relations with Iran. “China has made significant progress in mediating issues between Iran and Arab nations through Iran, showcasing its influence in the Middle East,” he said. “Western countries also hope that China’s influence over Iran can have an impact on Middle Eastern affairs and nuclear issues.”
“Of particular note is that even though China aligns with Iran in a united front, it does not wish to be overly influenced by Iran. The CCP aims to engage with Western nations and avoid being entangled or disrupted by Iran in its dealings with these countries,” Chung added.
Rahe, known for his anti-American stance, was actively involved in recent conflicts in the Middle East, supporting groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels, and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Iran and Israel even engaged in missile exchanges.
Rahe’s unexpected death has created a significant void in filling the top leadership role in Iran. A new president must be elected within 50 days, potentially leading to a period of chaos and power reshuffles among the Iranian elite.
In terms of Iran’s foreign relations, defense, and security issues, the ultimate authority lies with the Supreme Leader. Chung noted that there would be no major changes in this regard.
He stressed that the strategic partnership between the CCP, Iran, and Russia within the so-called axis of evil remains unchanged. These three countries are largely isolated by the international community, relying on each other for support. “No matter who the Iranian president is, this dynamic will not change,” Chung stated.
Su Zi-yun added that Rahe’s death could trigger internal shifts in Iran. “There are various factions within Iran, so the death of a president known for being pro-China and pro-Russia will require a new presidential election,” he said. If Iran’s diplomatic stance were to shift, it would not bode well for Beijing and Moscow, particularly as Beijing heavily relies on Iran for energy exports.
However, Su expressed skepticism regarding any imminent changes, suggesting that a shift in power towards the reformist faction within Iran’s government would be necessary to alter the strategic landscape. “The so-called reformists in Iran support women’s liberation, which could clash with the country’s political-religious system, challenging the authority of their religious leader,” Su explained.
He mentioned that with the recent issuance of an international warrant against the Israeli Prime Minister, “a new Iranian president might adopt a slightly more relaxed attitude towards the West under these circumstances, but will not entirely deviate from cooperation with the CCP and Russia. The situation in the Middle East may see a slight alleviation, and that would be the extent of it.”