In recent months since the second half of this year, the Chinese pork market has been plunged into a rare “elimination battle”. Pork prices continue to decline, hitting a new low in nearly four years. In addition, under the ongoing pressure of losses, industry giants burdened with hundreds of billions in debt are facing the risk of a disrupted financial chain. Meanwhile, on the other side of oversupply, long-standing threats of diseases (such as the PRRS virus, attenuated African swine fever) are simultaneously striking, intensifying market panic and exposing consumers who buy low-priced virus-infected pork to health risks.
Many industry insiders interviewed by The Epoch Times revealed that government policies have played a detrimental role by forcibly removing top groups that resist production cuts, leading to the “elimination battle” and a major industry reshuffle.
The continuous collapse of prices is just the beginning of this crisis.
According to the latest monitoring by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of October 21, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural wholesale markets was 17.70 yuan per kilogram (about 8.85 yuan per pound), marking ten consecutive weeks of decline.
The ongoing price downturn is swiftly transmitting to consumers.
Staff at a chain supermarket in Tongzhou District, Beijing, confirmed to local media that the cheapest discounted pork price in the supermarket has reached 7 yuan per pound, setting a record low this year. A shopper selecting pork remarked, “I have never bought pork this cheap this year!”
According to the supermarket staff, the cheapest pork in the supermarket originally priced at 8.99 yuan per pound, with consumers enjoying a discounted price of 7 yuan per pound when purchasing 5 pounds or more. “7 yuan per pound is already the wholesale price.”
However, the cruelty of this price war is more evident on the breeding end.
A pig farmer in Hebei, Mr. Ren, revealed to The Epoch Times on October 23 that the purchase price of “standard pigs” (pigs with standard market weight) in the industry in October has dropped to over 5 yuan per pound, hitting a four-year low.
Monitoring data from the Livestock and Veterinary Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in the first week of October, the average price of piglets nationwide dropped by 3.6% compared to the previous week, a year-on-year drop of 26.6%. Piglet prices in all 29 monitored provinces nationwide have fallen.
Looking at data disclosed by breeding companies, in August and September 2025, the average selling prices of piglets from enterprises such as Muyuan Group, Wens Group, and New Hope for commodity pigs have declined for two consecutive months.
Zhuhai Information pig industry analyst Zou Yingji mentioned that this year, pig prices have shown a trend of initial fluctuation followed by accelerated decline, hitting a new low in nearly four years.
Mr. Ren mentioned earlier expressed that the days of dominant large-scale pig breeding groups (“groups”) in the Chinese pig farming industry have been “tough” and are facing a survival crisis.
He explained that the main purpose of the group’s price reduction to “just over 5 yuan” for the standard pigs is to “liquidate”, quickly recoup funds to repay high operating costs and bank loans. Large-scale pig breeding groups, due to their high operating costs and the poor market for piglets which they can’t sell, are suffering severe losses at the price of over 5 yuan and are facing serious pressure on their financial chains and risk of collapse.
Data indicates that this financial pressure has reached its limit. According to statistics from Pig Farm Dynamic Network, as of the end of June this year, 22 listed pig companies had a total debt of as high as 372.047 billion yuan, with many companies having a debt ratio exceeding 70%. Under the pressure of declining pork prices and “reduction of subsidies, credit control” policies, the short-term debt pressure on some companies has reached tens of times their cash reserves.
Mr. Ren predicted that the current low prices will force the market to undergo large-scale capacity reduction. It is estimated that within the three months from October to December, the industry will eliminate 1.5 to 2 million breeding sows.
He also warned that the “release companies” providing bridging and guarantee services to the group should quickly reclaim foster costs and deposits because “a large number of companies will incur losses or even go bankrupt”.
“Release companies” usually refer to companies in the pig industry chain that provide financial services and trade intermediaries. These companies are often traders, distributors, or specialized agricultural financial service institutions. They provide bridging or guarantee services to pig farmers (including group fosterers). In order to quickly expand its production capacity or transfer risks, the group will provide piglets, feed, and technical standards to dispersed farmers or small and medium-sized pig farms for fostering. The group acquires the finished pigs at the time of sale and pays the foster fees.
Is the sharp drop in pork prices merely a market behavior? A pig buyer from Henan, Mr. Wang, provided a completely different industry perspective.
Mr. Wang mentioned to The Epoch Times that he had “just had tea last month” (referring to convening industry giants meeting to stabilize or control production levels), which coincides with the publicly reported “Pig Production Control Enterprise Symposium” on September 16. The meeting gathered 25 top groups with the theme of “pig production control,” requesting companies to submit targets for reducing breeding sows and to reduce the national inventory to around 39.5 million heads.
Mr. Wang believes that the government’s control strategy is to force those groups that resist production cuts to “intentionally make you pay more, forcing you to close down,” in order to achieve industry consolidation to “permanently favor the big players”. He predicted that we will see the closure of “five or eight” major companies, reflecting the industry’s shift towards consolidation.
Beyond the crisis of prices and debt, the threat of diseases has become the biggest and most urgent risk facing breeding households.
Mr. Ren warned that we must be vigilant against the risk of “epidemic diseases”, especially the attenuated African swine fever (“Little Fly”).
He emphasized that currently, “epidemic diseases” are the biggest and most pressing threat to the pig industry. “Little Fly” is an acute and malignant infectious disease that infects pigs. “Little Fly” is present in pig farms, the virus has been spreading for years and has become attenuated. If there are no symptoms, it’s harmless, but once symptomatic, it’s a disaster.
He specifically cautioned that with the significant temperature changes in the current season, it is the time when the virus is most active and likely to cause outbreaks. He warned everyone not to take it lightly and to take immediate preventive measures.
Another disease threat has sparked panic in the market.
In September, videos on the popular app circulated showing that the Gataviruses were detected in pig farms in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Sichuan, and five other provinces, leading to continuous diarrhea in piglets with a survival rate of less than 20%.
In the videos, farmers held test reports with worried expressions, “In Jiangxi, the positive rate in some pig farms is as high as 95.65%!” This data has caused a strong reaction within the industry. Farmers showed symptomatic piglets infected with the disease, suffering from persistent diarrhea, imbalance, and showing clear cerebellar symptoms.
According to authoritative industry information platforms, based on monitoring data from the Chinese Center for Animal Health and Epidemiology, the spread of Gataviruses in China is becoming increasingly significant. The provinces involved—Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, and Sichuan—are important pig-producing areas in China, accounting for 35% of the national output. This means that the supply of over one-third of China’s live pigs may be affected. If the supply of pork significantly decreases in the market, it will have a major impact on prices and consumers’ lives.
Industry insiders point out that in the current active seasons of summer and autumn when mosquitoes and insects are active, the Gataviruses primarily spread through biting mosquitoes such as Culex and Aedes. Due to financial constraints, some small and medium-sized pig farms lack adequate biosecurity measures, do not install fine mesh screens, and do not regularly carry out mosquito elimination, creating conditions for the spread of the virus, leading to regional infection clusters. After one pig farm is infected, surrounding pig farms are also subsequently infected, facilitating the rapid spread of the disease.
Mrs. Yan, a pork stall owner in Guangzhou, told The Epoch Times that the price of pork infected with Gataviruses is very cheap; in some places in Hebei, pork sells for 2 yuan per pound. “Who would be willing to do a losing business these days? I wouldn’t dare to eat pork at 2 yuan per pound!” She expressed concern about some unaware elderly people buying such pork, raising worries. Under the shadow of disease risks, consumers should be vigilant about buying low-priced pork.
In the face of the triple squeeze of prices, debt, and diseases, the survival situation of frontline breeders and vendors is extremely difficult.
Mrs. Gao, a pig farmer in Jilin, expressed to The Epoch Times that they are now seeing losses every day, with the amount of losses being “astronomical”.
She revealed that breeders are discussing it one after another, and many people are not optimistic about next year’s market. Mrs. Gao analyzed that on the one hand, there are too many pigs, and on the other hand, the economy is in a slump, causing a decrease in consumer consumption. Despite the drop in pork prices, not much pork is sold in a day. Normally, autumn is a good time for consumption as people want to buy something delicious during the harvest season. But now, not even a whole pig’s meat can be sold in a day. To survive, she has to turn to “one-stop service”: from slaughtering pigs and selling meat to making unsold meat into cooked food and sausages for sale.
Mrs. Yan, the pork stall owner in Guangzhou, said, “I have also processed many sausages.” “It’s very difficult to do this, there’s a risk of losses every day,” and as the market turmoil continues, if pork doesn’t sell, prices have to be lowered.
She said that the monthly rent for her stall is over 13,000 yuan, and the money earned from her business is all used to pay the rent to the landlord. “We don’t dare to pay a year’s rent in advance. If it doesn’t work out, I’ll go back to my hometown and set up a street stall.”