According to the “Silver Economy Blue Book,” the annual output value of China’s silver economy reaches a staggering 7 trillion yuan, yet the representative of the “silver economy,” the elderly care institutions, are facing a crisis of bankruptcy in 2025. Analysts believe that the root cause lies in the inability of the elderly population to support this industry financially.
On mainland media reports, based on the “Silver Economy Blue Book: China’s Silver Economy Development Report (2024),” the annual output value of China’s silver economy reaches 7 trillion yuan, with a projected breakthrough to over 10 trillion yuan after 2026, aspiring to become the third largest pillar industry of the national economy after real estate and automotive industries.
The internet describes the current status of the Chinese population as “lethargic young people, vibrant elderly,” with silver-haired consumerism attracting attention. People imagine the “silver-haired generation” engaging in daily travel, purchasing gold jewelry, singing karaoke in the morning and dancing at night. However, the reality is that the occupancy rates in the elderly care institutions, representing the “silver economy,” remain high, leading to a looming bankruptcy crisis in 2025.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs disclosed in a white paper that the overall vacancy rate for public/private elderly care beds nationwide stands at a staggering 58%, with major cities like Beijing having an occupancy rate of only 45%. To achieve a break-even point, a 70% occupancy rate is required, meaning the vacancy rate should generally not exceed 30%.
According to data from enterprise check, the number of registered elderly care institutions in the first 9 months of this year is 730. As of June 2025, over 1100 small and medium-sized elderly care institutions nationwide have closed down. Based on data from the “2025 China Community Elderly Services Blue Book,” the number of registered nurses nationwide has decreased by 12% year on year, indicating a mass exodus of elderly care nursing staff.
In fact, data from the Civil Affairs Bureau shows that the occupancy rate of elderly care institutions nationwide was as high as 78% in 2010, plummeting to 42% in 2024. Jiemian news believes that the fundamental problem lies in the lack of funds among the elderly.
It is reported that since 2005, pension funds have seen an average annual growth of 10% for ten consecutive years, but after 2020, the growth rate has dropped to below 3%. In recent years, the fees for beds, labor, and meals in elderly care institutions have significantly increased, surpassing the growth rate of pension funds. Taking Beijing as an example, the average retirement income for enterprise employees in Beijing is 4300 yuan per month, while the average price of a nursing home is 6611 yuan per month, indicating that retirement pensions cannot cover the cost of elderly care institutions.
Looking at the overall situation domestically, the “purchasing power for the elderly” is likely to be cut in half. Qingshan Capital’s 2025 annual research report “Old, with no ‘dependence'” cited CEIC data: the average monthly cost of self-care nursing for the elderly in 36 Chinese cities (including beds, meals, and nursing) exceeds 2600 yuan. Only 15.8% of the elderly can afford monthly fees of 3000 yuan or more for elderly care institutions, meaning that over 80% of the elderly cannot afford such institutions.
In addition to elderly care institutions, silver consumer spending also focuses on healthcare and tourism. Qingshan Capital’s report shows that over 80% of the elderly do not take health supplements, and over 80% did not travel in the past year.
Another set of data shows that China has nearly 300 million retirees, with approximately 22.5 million receiving pensions from government agencies, accounting for 5%, with an average monthly pension of 6243 yuan; about 120 million are enterprise retirees, accounting for 40%, with an average monthly pension of 3271 yuan; about 171 million are rural elderly, accounting for 55%, with an average monthly pension of only 223 yuan.
These data indicate that the truly financially capable elderly are in the minority, concentrated among retirees from government agencies. There exists a significant purchasing power gap between retirees from government agencies, enterprise retirees, and rural elderly.
Another comparison can be made with the data. According to the People’s Bank of China’s data for the second quarter, the average savings of the population over 50 years old nationwide is only 186,000 yuan, while data from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare shows that the average savings for the population over 50 in Japan exceed 12 million yen, close to 600,000 yuan. It is evident that the consumption power of the elderly in China is far below that in Japan. In reality, the money held by the elderly in China is likely used for emergencies and children’s marriages, rather than readily spent on consumption.
Jiemian News believes that the seemingly impressive 7 trillion yuan output value is quite misleading, as it is supported by a massive group representing one-fifth of China’s population. When this number is divided by the total economic output, it is only 6%.