Before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), internal struggles are escalating. Analysts believe that within the top ranks of the CCP, Xi Jinping’s faction is consolidating power. They are not a united front, with the most intense power struggle being between Premier Li Keqiang and the Director of the General Office of the Central Committee, Cai Qi, both members of the Politburo Standing Committee. The rivalry between Cai Qi and Li Keqiang has become a hot topic among officials.
Premier Li Keqiang visited North Korea from October 9 to 11. In a departure from his predecessor’s practices, Li did not use a special plane for his trip but instead had to fly on a chartered flight.
Independent commentator Du Zheng believes that since taking control of the General Office of the Central Committee in March 2023, Cai Qi has been in charge of all leaders’ travel arrangements and has revised the protocol for the Premier’s travel to only allow chartered flights.
Du Zheng, in an article published in Taiwan’s Up Media on October 18, pointed out that Cai Qi, as a member of the Central Secretariat responsible for party building and propaganda, effectively controls the National Security Commission and the recently established Central Department of Social Work, especially overseeing the General Office, a core institution in Zhongnanhai. Li Keqiang, on the other hand, is considered the weakest Premier in CCP history.
During the National Party and Government Secretaries Conference held on September 13-14, 2023, in Beijing, an unprecedented move merged the party and government secretaries’ meetings under the leadership of Cai Qi, who conveyed Xi Jinping’s directives. The government secretaries, who were previously under the Premier’s management, now take orders from Cai Qi, including Li Keqiang’s senior aide and State Councilor and Secretary-General Wu Zhenglong.
Du Zheng argued that Wu Zhenglong is a companion to Li Keqiang’s travels, and every time Li goes somewhere, Wu reports his whereabouts to Cai Qi.
Furthermore, Cai Qi’s son, Cai Erjin, has been serving as the Deputy Director of the Department of Infrastructure Development of the National Development and Reform Commission since the end of 2024 and is likely to have become the executive deputy director. The NDRC is a core department of the State Council and having Cai Qi’s son in this position provides another set of eyes and ears in Li Keqiang’s territory.
According to sources in Beijing, Xi Jinping is reportedly in poor health. If Xi were to suddenly fall ill, a power struggle would likely emerge between Cai Qi and Li Keqiang for the highest authority.
Both Li Keqiang and Cai Qi previously served in Zhejiang and have their own local power bases, making Xi’s “Zhejiang New Army” essentially fragmented.
Cai Qi primarily holds sway over Beijing, where he was in power during his later years. After Li Keqiang became Premier, his influence in the southern regions often indirectly supported Li’s economic policies, challenging Cai Qi’s political movements that interfere with economic development.
In August 2024, while senior CCP officials were gathered in Beidaihe, a dispute within the political and business circles known as the “Gaida Egg” controversy emerged. The “Gaida Egg” game, popular in various circles, was criticized by Beijing Youth Daily, one of Beijing’s mouthpieces, for fostering complacency and forming cliques and alliances. Beijing’s propaganda efforts are under Cai Qi’s influence.
Originating from Jiangsu’s Huai’an, the “Gaida Egg” is a card game for four players, rumored to have both overt and covert support from Li Keqiang. Li Keqiang, during his tenure as the Secretary of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee from June 2016 to October 2017, was considered pro-business, and the “Gaida Egg” game became a popular culture in Jiangsu.
Additionally, the recent strict ban on alcohol consumption by CCP officials and in the business sector has sparked discontent. This crackdown, supported by Xi Jinping, is led by Cai Qi. Those familiar with the matter claim that Li Keqiang, responsible for the economy, is certainly not pleased with how the alcohol ban might impact economic activities. Some local officials in Zhejiang, where Li has connections, are reportedly trying to circumvent the ban. The ongoing power struggle between Cai and Li has become a topic of discussion among officials in Zhejiang.
The current chaotic power dynamics within the top ranks of the CCP have marginalized Li Keqiang, who lacks professionalism and operational space in economic governance under the pressure from Xi Jinping and Cai Qi. Prior to the Fourth Plenary Session, Cai Qi had instructed official media to continuously promote Xi Jinping’s economic ideology. Since Li Keqiang took office in 2023, there has been no significant improvement in China’s economy, but instead, it has plunged deeper into crisis.
The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP is set to begin next week. Several scholars interviewed by Dajiyuan recently pointed out that the CCP is not only facing a reassessment of its economic policies but also engaging in a deep power struggle over the power structure and governing logic.
(Previous report: On the eve of the Fourth Plenary Session, several scholars analyze the crisis facing the CCP.)