In China, the current economic challenges are not just cold macroeconomic data, but also the prevailing “sense of economic ebb” felt by multiple generations from middle-aged to young people. With the continuous collapse of the real estate market, the “Post-70s,” “Post-80s,” and “Post-90s” generations in mainland China have almost all been deeply entangled in this 20-year-long “everyone buys a house” wave. Waves of unemployment, layoffs, and midlife crises are impacting each generation in different forms as the economy continues to decline.
Financial blogger “Anxious Cola Cake” from Beijing stated on October 15 that in the era of “everyone buys a house” in China, the vast majority of the Post-70s, Post-80s, and Post-90s generations have taken out loans to buy houses. With the real estate market plummeting in recent years, both young and middle-aged people are facing dire situations, each in their own way. Their common predicament is being tightly bound by the curse of homeownership, feeling trapped as if they were prisoners.
As an eyewitness from the Post-80s, the blogger described the experiences of this generation as a “roller coaster ride.” He mentioned that the Post-80s were once the “most diligent generation.” They rode the wave of urbanization and asset expansion in the first half of their lives, climbing the social ladder by buying houses on loans, banking on the benefits of rapid development.
However, when the trend abruptly halted in recent years, “the second half of the lives of the Post-80s saw a significant decline in assets, asset contraction, and a sharp drop in housing prices.” The drastic fall in property prices led to significant asset shrinkage, plunging them into immense pain: most Post-80s who bought properties at the peak are now facing the dilemma of their values depreciating by “half.” This is not just a numerical loss but also a denial of their “struggles for one or two decades,” reverting them almost overnight to where they were ten years ago.
The Post-80s are plagued by debt anxiety. While house prices have dropped, the terms of the bank’s mortgage contracts remain unchanged, leading to a severe phenomenon of assets being outweighed by liabilities. The enormous mortgages have firmly locked this generation in a “prisoner-like” state, stifling their consumer power and becoming one of the critical factors hindering current domestic demand.
In contrast to the Post-80s, who experienced a period of “rapid progress,” the Post-90s are seen as catching the “tail end of the big wave” and entering the trials of economic decline and waves of layoffs earlier.
The blogger “Anxious Cola Cake” mentioned that the Post-90s have it even tougher. He noted that the Post-90s caught the tail end of the urbanization dividend and asset expansion wave, enjoying some benefits briefly before being abruptly tossed into an economic downturn.
“My many Post-90s former colleagues, when they first joined companies, had salaries of six to seven thousand yuan (RMB), including those who returned from studying abroad. After a slight increase in salaries, as the good times began, the companies started massive layoffs, and most people were let go.” This reflects the structural layoffs in high-paying industries like internet, education, and real estate in recent years, leading to extreme instability in the careers of the younger generation.
The blogger highlighted the depreciation of qualifications and the upgrading of insider status: “When I chat with many Post-90s, I find that many of them had studied abroad in countries like Australia, the UK, and New Zealand. Their once prestigious international education backgrounds, except those from elite schools, are now considered as ‘inferior’ degrees in the domestic job market, making it challenging to compete with graduates from top local universities like the 985 Project universities. This signifies a sharp decline in the marginal benefits of education investment, indicating that the internal competition in the job market has intensified significantly.”
“Anxious Cola Cake” believes that the Post-00s are the most clear-eyed generation, yet also the most powerless. They have grasped the game rules of social resource allocation and, after losing the opportunity to buy houses and acquire resources, have chosen a passive “I won’t play with you” attitude.
“The internal competition is extremely fierce; no matter how hard the Post-00s try, they can’t afford to buy a house, nor can they surpass the older generation on core resource acquisition like high-paying jobs.”
Unable to achieve traditional goals of striving, such as homeownership, the spending psychology of the Post-00s has shifted. They are no longer inclined to save or invest in real estate but have turned to buying products that can “release emotions” or experiential services for short-term emotional comfort, showcasing a shift in consumer confidence from commodities to emotional value.
The views of “Anxious Cola Cake” have struck a chord with many.
Blogger “Rock God” stated that more and more people are choosing to lie flat. Some young people opt not to work, choosing instead to laze around at home, spend extravagantly until the money runs out, then slack off, giving up on life.
“The Post-90s have been trapped by houses. The minority not influenced are now becoming more ‘calculative,’ deciding not to buy a home; the Post-00s are still observing. After all, the terror of the Post-90s being dominated by houses is in plain sight, while the joy of living brought by homeownership is not as significant.”
“Rock God” expressed that buying a house is like boarding a “thief ship”; behind it come mortgages, renovations, marriage, child-rearing, education, healthcare, each one more challenging. Once aboard this ship, these burdens are beyond your control, and there is no way to escape!
“Even before the market harvests you, your parents are at your doorstep, coaxing you to quickly buy a house, marry, and give them grandchildren. Despite resisting their pressure, in the end, you’re still harvested like a leek.”
The personal experiences of the bloggers are not isolated cases but rather the micro-level embodiment of the macroeconomic data.
On October 15, the official Chinese Communist Party announced the CPI and PPI data for September.
The September CPI fell by 0.3% year-on-year, exacerbating deflation expectations, suppressing consumption and investment. The PPI has seen consecutive months of negative growth, reflecting overcapacity in the manufacturing industry, forcing companies to reduce prices and affecting employment and wage growth.
As the economic growth rate decelerates, service consumption outperforms commodity consumption, indicating extreme caution among the public regarding large expenditures like durable goods, aligning with the Post-00s’ transition towards “venting-style consumption.”
“Anxious Cola Cake” questioned, “What have these several generations done wrong altogether?” He believes that the economic decline spanning multiple generations is essentially due to the unsustainable nature of China’s previous economic model of “high debt, high investment, high growth,” and the enormous impact brought by the burst of the real estate bubble and lackluster domestic demand. In a subdued macro environment, individual resistance ultimately seems futile.