The once bustling real estate market in mainland China, symbolized by the traditionally prosperous “Golden September, Silver October” sales season, has completely vanished in 2025. Especially during this year’s National Day holiday, most regions witnessed an unusually quiet housing market, leaving many long-term market observers in disbelief.
Financial blogger “Dan Xiaohuang” from Shanghai sharply pointed out that compared to previous years, this year’s National Day holiday saw a surprisingly silent Chinese real estate market. He questioned the whereabouts of those who used to promote the idea that “housing prices will always rise” and “buying a house guarantees profit” in the face of the now significantly cooling market.
The term “fang chui” was popularly used on Chinese social media platforms, especially in discussions on real estate and investment, with a negative connotation. It refers to individuals who are overly optimistic about the real estate market and continuously advocate the belief that housing prices will always go up and buying a house is a guaranteed profit.
The focus of the market is on the iconic city of Shanghai. Despite official reports stating that the new housing market in Shanghai saw some recovery during the holiday period with 988 units sold, the performance of the second-hand housing market left many in the industry astonished.
Financial blogger “Tentative Coca Cola Cake” revealed that the transaction data for second-hand homes in Shanghai during the National Day holiday was unexpectedly poor, showing an “abnormally sluggish” trend. Data cited indicated that only 462 second-hand homes were sold from October 1st to 5th in Shanghai.
Comparatively, the number of second-hand homes sold in Shanghai in September was around 18,000 units, averaging about six to seven hundred units per day. The total sales for the first five days of October didn’t even match the daily average sales in September. Moreover, the current transaction volume is significantly lower compared to around 200 units per day during the National Day holiday in 2024.
While the data may be underestimated due to delays in the official online signing and filing system during the holiday, the general sentiment from bloggers and market insiders reflects a fragile market confidence.
After the introduction of the “Shanghai Seven Policies” in 2024, the Shanghai real estate market experienced a surge, with daily transaction volumes breaking the one-thousand-unit mark (such as 1334 units sold on October 13th, 2024). However, the policy-driven momentum did not continue into the “Golden September, Silver October” of 2025, indicating that the pent-up housing demand had been largely released, leading the market back to rationality and even a wait-and-see state.
The downturn in Shanghai is not an isolated case. Nationwide real estate data also confirms the quietness of the peak season.
“Chengdu Business News” reported on October 6th that during the National Day holiday, the sales center of an old property in the Tianhe district of Guangzhou was noticeably quiet, with only sporadic customer visits. A real estate professional in Guangzhou stated that on the first day of the National Day holiday, the visitation volume in urban projects in Guangzhou generally increased compared to September, but peripheral areas remained relatively quiet, relying more on channel-driven transactions. With less obvious price advantages, transactions also became more difficult.
Huang Tao, the general manager of the project department at Guangdong Zhongyuan Real Estate, stated, “Currently, the market focus is on new projects, which have outstanding sales performance, but they only represent about 10% of the market. The remaining projects generally face pressure for inventory turnover.”
Data from large second-hand housing agencies nationwide showed that second-hand housing transactions during “Golden September” decreased further compared to August, with a decline of around 3% in major cities, indicating a monthly declining trend.
Real estate economist Deng Haozhi noted that only Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw a rebound in transaction volume in the second-hand housing market in September due to the relaxation of purchase restrictions, while cities like Guangzhou and Hangzhou, which did not implement supportive policies, experienced an almost across-the-board decline with a decrease of 10% and 12% respectively.
In terms of transaction prices, the second-hand market remains in a phase of “trading volume for price,” with prices continuing to decline by about 10% to 12% year-on-year.
Deng Haozhi’s recent article titled “Unsatisfactory Real Estate Market in ‘Golden September,’ Expecting a More Depressed ‘Silver October'” expresses concerns over the bleak situation during “Golden September.” If the traditional peak season is already challenging, the period following “Golden September, Silver October” is likely to be even more difficult for the market to endure.
Running parallel to the sluggish real estate market is the shift in the information market. The article observed two phenomena: firstly, over 90% of self-media accounts that previously focused on real estate now have content unrelated to the industry, as creators ceased related output.
Secondly, “traditional media, such as television and newspapers, have reduced their real estate reports by an estimated 90%. Higher-ups require only ‘positive’ reports. However, whether it be data, attitudes, funding, or policies, squeezing out good news has proved to be difficult. Recently, whenever a television station interviews, the program team insists that I can only portray the positive side, or cobble together the remaining bits of good news into a news item.”
This indirectly addresses blogger “Dan Xiaohuang’s” question—amidst a lack of organic market fervor, the “fang chui” group has fallen silent due to low traffic and lack of engaging topics.
The real estate sales situation during the 2025 National Day holiday serves as a microcosm of the severe test facing the confidence in the Chinese real estate market. While new homes achieved some success through promotions, the ongoing slump in the second-hand housing market and the trend of bottoming prices have led to widespread concerns in the industry about the market direction post “Silver October”.