Ukrainian drones once again breached Russian defenses, causing multiple oil refineries to catch fire in various locations. As a result, Russia is facing severe oil shortages. From Orenburg to Yaroslavl, from Leningrad to the Far Eastern border regions, gas stations are experiencing long queues, oil prices are soaring, exports are banned, and Putin’s energy empire is quietly crumbling. The Liutyi drone, a Ukrainian-made “sky hunter,” is reshaping the battlefield with its low cost and high firepower.
In recent weeks, Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries, leading to oil shortages in many regions of Russia, a major oil-producing nation. Videos filmed on October 4th in the Altai border region show Russian citizens queuing up at gas stations on what should have been a weekend of rest and relaxation. The scenes depict long lines of cars waiting to refuel, indicating a substantial wait time. Local residents uploaded multiple videos showing the chaotic scenes of people vying for gas.
Such scenes remind me of hurricane situations in Florida. Clearly, Russia’s oil shortage issue is quite severe. This is not limited to a single region; over the past weekend, several regions in Russia faced severe oil crises. Another video from the Khabarovsk border region showed that out of nine gas stations in a small town, only one was operational, limiting gasoline purchases to 10 liters per transaction. The entire gas station was surrounded by cars from all directions, resembling a never-ending queue, even larger than one that would perhaps accompany a visit by Putin himself.
Images from the capital of Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia show that many gas stations have ceased supplying 92 and 95 gasoline, indicating price displays of zero.
Russia’s oil crisis stems from Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries over the past few weeks. Videos from October 4th show a Ukrainian drone attacking a Russian refinery in Orel, in the Orenburg region. The targeted refinery has an annual refining capacity of 6.6 million tons and is a key refinery in southern Russia.
The Orel refinery is located near the border with Kazakhstan, approximately 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine, indicating Ukraine’s capability to mass-produce long-range drones.
Another video from October 4th depicts Ukrainian drones attacking Russia’s second-largest refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast. The refinery’s production exceeds 20 million tons and was first attacked on September 14, resulting in a closure of the AT-6 unit and a loss of 38% of the plant’s total capacity.
The governor of Leningrad Oblast confirmed the Ukrainian drone attacks and fires, stating that the air defense forces destroyed seven drones, and the industrial zone’s large fire has been extinguished.
On October 1st, another major Russian refinery, Yaroslavl Refinery, was attacked. Footage from the incident shows a massive fire at the distant refinery, indicating significant losses.
These attacks, perpetrated mostly by Ukrainian-developed “Liutyi” drones, are affecting Russia’s oil production, supply, and profitability.
Furthermore, Ukraine has not only launched aerial attacks but also maritime assaults. A video from September 24 showed Ukrainian naval drones attacking an oil-loading dock in Taman Port. Despite Russian attempts to intercept with bullets, the unmanned boat proceeded and exploded upon hitting the oil pier, causing a massive explosion.
These attacks by Ukraine have caused oil shortages in multiple regions of Russia. Reports from August indicated gasoline shortages in various regions, with the far eastern border regions experiencing severe oil scarcity.
The decrease in Russian oil production is highlighted by railway transport statistics. From January to September this year, oil and oil product transport volume dropped by 5.4% year-on-year, with a progressively larger decline in recent months (2.3% in July, 6.3% in August, and 9.6% in September).
To address the domestic oil crisis, Russia has restricted oil exports. According to local reports, authorities have prohibited diesel exports to non-producers and reduced diesel supplies to foreign markets.
The oil shortage and price hikes are leading to rising costs in Russia. Statistics from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service show significant price increases in Sevastopol Port (5.6%), Crimea (4.9%), with Moscow and St. Petersburg only experiencing a marginal rise (0.3%). However, these official figures may not fully represent the actual situation.
In conclusion, Ukraine’s attacks have significantly reduced Russia’s oil production capacity, resulting in domestic oil supply tensions and weakening Russia’s profitability from oil. Despite economic sanctions, prices continue to rise in Russia, with major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg remaining relatively stable – areas crucial to Putin’s support base, as he attempts to contain the effects of war outside these metropolitan centers.
Ukraine’s strategy includes targeting heavily populated Russian cities, attacking power plants, and energy facilities to disrupt enemy infrastructure. Russia has experienced power outages in cities such as Kyiv and Kherson in recent months, highlighting Ukraine’s capability in this regard. Ukraine aims to make Russia feel the impact of damaged energy infrastructure on civilians.
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