During this year’s Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, Chinese liquor companies are engaged in fierce price wars and rolling out various promotional policies to seize the market. However, a securities institution predicts that overall liquor sales may decline by 15% to 20% during the “double festival” period this year.
According to a report by “Times Finance” on September 30th, a liquor merchant in Shandong’s Jining city stated, “I can’t imagine the Mid-Autumn Festival being this quiet. For example, in the county where I am located, sales may be halved compared to last year.”
Research conducted by Fangzhen Securities Co., Ltd. in the main liquor distribution areas of Jiangsu, Henan, and Anhui revealed that this year’s pre-holiday stocking was significantly lagging, with insufficient enthusiasm from terminal merchants for stocking up. The market relies more on rigid demands such as weddings and banquets, with slow recovery in business gifts and high-end banquet scenes, presenting the characteristic of “not being prosperous in the peak season.”
China CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. also expects that liquor sales may decline by 15% to 20% during the “double festival” period this year. The third quarter of this year is considered the bottom range of the liquor industry’s fundamentals, and it is a period where sales, prices, and market confidence are under the most pressure.
A report by “Southern Metropolis Daily” on September 30th indicated that as the double festivals approach, the price reduction intensity across various channels increases. Many high-end liquors continue to see a decrease in average prices from the previous period, with some products hitting new lows.
In Guangzhou, the average market price of liquor continues to decline compared to the previous period. The market retail prices of 14 products have seen a decrease, including high-end liquors such as Luzhou Laojiao 8th generation, Junpinxi liquor, Qinghualang, and Hongxifeng. Meanwhile, the average prices of mid to high-end products such as Yanghe M6+, Jinsha Zhaiyao, and Shuijingfang Jingtai have decreased by several yuan to tens of yuan.
“Times Finance” reported that three products of Moutai 53% alcohol volume had initiated a price war in early September, with the 2025 edition reduced from 2999 yuan to 2599 yuan, and the 2023 edition reduced from 3699 yuan to 2999 yuan.
According to “Nandu Bay Finance and Social”, the current retail average prices of high-end liquors priced over 1000 yuan, including Luzhou Laojiao 8th generation, Guojiao 1573, Junpinxi liquor, and Qinghualang in Shenzhen, were 890.18 yuan/bottle, 942.24 yuan/bottle, 722.34 yuan/bottle, and 887.91 yuan/bottle, respectively. These prices have dropped by 21 yuan, 18 yuan, 35 yuan, and 51 yuan respectively from the previous period, leading to an overall decline in retail prices of high-priced products.
The liquor market in Foshan and Dongguan cities have also experienced similar situations, with many liquor companies lowering prices to engage in price wars and stimulate sales.
According to some liquor merchants interviewed by “Times Finance”, overall liquor prices have dropped significantly this year compared to previous years, especially for high-end products. Both distilleries and distributors hope to expand sales and reduce inventory during the double festivals, thus launching various promotional activities. Moutai 1935 sponsored a film festival; Wuliangye launched the “Wonderful Gift” worth over 50 million yuan; Shuijingfang customers can get a lucky card by purchasing, which can be redeemed for gifts or gifted to friends and family; Fenjiu launched a promotion where consumers can receive red packets by scanning the bottle from September 4th to October 10th; Gujinggongjiu offered a “50 yuan off for every 500 yuan spent” deal, while Laobaigan liquor and others also introduced promotions and rewards activities.
Although prices of high-end liquors have generally dropped by several hundred yuan, the channel strategy has gradually expanded from simple discounts to a combination of “price + gifts + limited edition”. However, “Times Finance” believes that market sentiment is still cautious, with consumers increasingly seeking value for money. The ultimate effects on the liquor companies will still need to be observed closely.