The US government is set to release the new 2025 National Defense Strategy (NDS), with one of its core focuses reportedly being to “prevent the Chinese Communist Party’s control of Taiwan.” Experts analyze that this strategy not only signifies a shift from the US’s long-standing “strategic ambiguity” towards “strategic clarity” but also highlights significant policy changes towards China in Trump’s second term.
According to an interview published on September 23 in Japan’s “Sankei Shimbun” with former US Department of Defense policy advisor Toshi Yoshihara, the core of the new US national defense strategy under the Trump administration is to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Yoshihara stated that if China launches a large-scale invasion or landing operation against Taiwan, the US military will take specific intervention actions and urge Taiwan to strengthen its self-defense capabilities simultaneously.
Political observers believe that this information indicates a shift in US policy towards China from the long-term “strategic ambiguity” to a more specific “strategic clarity,” with profound implications for the Indo-Pacific region.
Yoshihara is currently a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) in Washington, D.C.
The US government updates the National Defense Strategy approximately every four years, serving as the fundamental guidelines for defense and foreign policy. The Trump administration first issued the NDS in 2018, identifying China and Russia as primary challengers to international order. Now, under the leadership of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense has finalized the new NDS draft, scheduled for an official release in October.
According to a statement from the Pentagon on May 2, Hegseth assigned Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby to lead the drafting of the new NDS to implement the President’s policies of “America First” and “promoting peace through strength.”
Colby was also the lead drafter of the defense strategy declaration during Trump’s first term.
Yoshihara told “Sankei Shimbun” that the new strategy prioritizes “US homeland defense” and “preventing Beijing from controlling Taiwan,” planning to establish a missile defense system called “Golden Dome” to comprehensively strengthen US airspace and border security.
Yü Tsung-chi, former Dean of the College of Political Warfare at National Defense University in Taiwan, stated in an interview with Epoch Times that Colby’s strategy clearly combines defending US homeland security with stopping Chinese aggression against Taiwan, breaking away from America’s past strategic ambiguity and moving towards strategic clarity.
Yü pointed out that this strategy not only demonstrates the US’s determination to intervene in the Taiwan Strait but also details specific measures, including strengthening the “Golden Dome” defense system and nuclear submarine operational capabilities. The $175 billion multi-layered defense system announced by Trump in July is specifically designed to counter Chinese threats to Taiwan or the US.
He believes that this “dual challenge” strategy will force China to allocate more resources, particularly in anti-access operations and high-tech military capabilities, further deepening the contradiction between defense spending and economic growth, possibly leading to a collapse of Xi Jinping’s regime akin to the economic collapse that befell the Soviet Union.
Yü stated that the new NDS also emphasizes working with allies in the first island chain, forming a collective defense mechanism through Japan, the US, Australia, and the Philippines to establish a security network around Taiwan and make an important declaration in the formation of an Asian collective defense system.
Ming Chu-cheng, a senior professor in the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, pointed out in a broadcast on the program “Frontline of Politics and Economics” on September 12 that Deputy Secretary of Defense Colby has held key positions in think tanks and the US gov…