In the 2024 US presidential election, the two main contenders, incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, are facing challenges. Biden’s support rates are historically low, while Trump is entangled in criminal court proceedings in Manhattan. Both are striving for breakthroughs.
On May 19th, during the graduation ceremony at Morehouse College, a historically black school in Atlanta, Biden faced protests from black students and faculty members. In his speech, Biden mentioned the heartbreaking events in Gaza and Israel, referring to the humanitarian crisis caused by Hamas militants attacking Israel and taking hostages last October. He called for an immediate ceasefire and the return of hostages, pledging to work tirelessly to provide more humanitarian aid to Gaza and establish lasting peace in the region.
Recent protests against the Israel-Gaza conflict in universities like Columbia, Harvard, Stanford, and MIT have disrupted US politics and may increase risks for Biden’s reelection campaign. The traditional stance of the US parties and mainstream society supporting Israel and Jewish people clashes with the views of a significant number of young and black voters who do not favor the policy of supporting Israel against Hamas.
To win over these voters, Biden occasionally criticizes Israel and even suspended weapons support, but that hasn’t gained him support from pro-Hamas or pro-Palestine individuals. Despite efforts by the White House to ease potential protests at the graduation ceremony, some students and staff wore headscarves and even Palestinian flags, symbolizing protests against the Gaza conflict.
During his speech, assistant professor Taura Taylor stood with a raised fist and back turned to Biden, donning a headscarf. Biden has been trying to attract African American support, holding events at the National Museum of African American History and Culture and meeting with leaders of historically black fraternities and sororities.
Recent polls show a decline in support for Biden among black male voters, raising concerns within the Democratic Party. A New York Times poll indicated a significant decrease in support for Biden among black voters compared to the 2020 election.
Biden and Trump swiftly agreed to two presidential debates in June and September, organized independently of the Presidential Debate Commission and arranged by Biden’s team favorably, such as holding debates without live audience to potentially benefit Biden.
The first debate between the two candidates is scheduled for June 27 in Atlanta, hosted by CNN. This date falls after the G7 summit and potentially after Trump’s trial in Manhattan ends. The debate moderators, Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, prominent critics of Trump, may influence the debate dynamics.
The second debate is set for September 10, hosted by ABC. Both debates will be nationally televised but without a live audience. Trump’s call for drug testing before the debate and concerns about Biden’s mental state have become focal points of discussion, with polls indicating skepticism among voters about Biden’s ability to serve in office.
As the election approaches, swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are crucial battlegrounds. Recent polls suggest shifts in support towards Trump in those battleground states where Biden won narrowly in 2020.
With the dynamics changing in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and others due to various factors like opinions on the Israel-Gaza conflict, the upcoming election is shaping up to be highly competitive with potentially decisive outcomes in those key states.
Trump’s successful rally in New Jersey with a significant turnout and the potential influence of third-party candidates in states like Wisconsin could complicate Biden’s reelection prospects. As both candidates gear up for a rematch in November, the race in swing states remains unpredictable and could determine the final election result.