Although the calendar has officially turned to autumn, New York City may have a hard time feeling the coolness early this year. According to the latest data from the National Weather Service (NWS), the greater New York area has a 40 to 50 percent chance of experiencing above-average temperatures this fall, indicating that the public may welcome a “warm autumn.”
The Old Farmer’s Almanac initially predicted that October would be cool and dry, but the federal meteorological agency threw cold water on that forecast. The National Weather Service, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), noted that there is a high probability of continued high temperatures in the Northeast region until November, extending the “iced coffee season.”
Meteorologist Bryan Ramsey stated that predicting climate trends is much more challenging than daily weather forecasting. While there are limited weather options for the next day, as you forecast three, five, or seven days ahead, the possibilities and the difficulty of prediction increase.
A warm autumn could delay the peak leaf-peeping season and prolong the allergy season due to pollen lingering longer. Research institution Climate Central pointed out that a warmer autumn could also extend summer heat waves, leading to increased energy expenditure from air conditioning use, and raising the risk of wildfires in the fall.
The United States experienced its hottest autumn in 130 years last year, with over half of the states experiencing the top three highest temperatures on record. Data from NOAA shows that since the early 20th century, the trend of warming autumns has been on the rise in the United States, and in the past decade, the concept of “sweater weather” has gradually become unstable.
Despite the long-term trend showing a “warm autumn,” there could still be cooling and rainfall in the short term. The weather service predicts rainfall in the middle of this week, but the weather outlook afterward remains unpredictable, possibly fluctuating between autumn chill and lingering summer heat.
The autumnal equinox has already started to shorten daylight hours, but this year’s autumn in New York is likely to resemble an “extended version of summer.” Experts recommend that individuals be prepared with iced coffee and scarves when heading out – as both may come in handy.