【Epoch Times, September 22, 2025】The Taiwan Institute of Strategic Studies and the Chinese Communist Research Magazine jointly held a forum on the strategic development of the Chinese Communist Party’s “14th Five-Year Plan” and security threats to Taiwan on the afternoon of the 19th, inviting scholars and experts to discuss.
Researcher Zeng Yinliang of the Taiwan Institute of Strategic Studies stated that the strategic planning of the Chinese Communist Party’s “14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030)” aims to implement Xi Jinping’s line, specifically achieving socialist modernization. Therefore, the declaration in the CCP White Paper released in 2025 to “inject certainty and stability into the world of chaos” foreshadows the intention of the “14th Five-Year Plan” to ensure a high level of security, but it may also exacerbate internal instability.
Facing the future promotion of the Chinese Communist Party’s “14th Five-Year Plan,” Zeng Yinliang analyzed that Taiwan will face three emerging and complex threat scenarios:
1. “Globalized Threat Model”: Chinese Communist threats not only come from military aircraft and warships circling Taiwan but also include “war of attrition” using national resources such as finance, data, and talent, attempting to hollow out Taiwan’s economic and social systems from within.
2. “Normalization of Legal Struggles”: The Chinese Communist Party will strengthen its erosion of Taiwan’s position internationally through “legal warfare.” This includes promoting its legal narratives in international organizations and positioning itself as a “stabilizer of order” within the UN framework, gradually squeezing Taiwan’s international space.
3. “Systematization of Strategic Paths”: Beijing’s Taiwan policy will involve a systematic operation of “securing internally first, then expanding externally.” After resolving internal governance issues, Beijing will concentrate more on handling what it perceives as Taiwan’s sovereignty issue.
Assistant Researcher Chan Xiangwei from the National Defense University’s Institute for Cybersecurity and Decision-Making Simulation stated that the impact of the Trump administration’s new policies on the Asia-Pacific region mainly lies in the strengthening of “alliance networks,” “massive reorganization of cutting-edge technology trade,” and reforms and enhancements in frontier defense, which can be seen as an in-depth development of the overall “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy.” This aims to effectively enhance regional deterrence capabilities through comprehensive and joint forces while also accelerating China’s military preparations and countermeasures.
Chan Xiangwei mentioned that the “2027 Centenary Goal of Building the Military” and the “14th Five-Year Plan” reflect Xi Jinping’s strategic preparations for long-term competition and major power rivalry. The structural and long-term characteristics of the US-China strategic competition have been established, with the Indo-Pacific remaining a central stage for global geopolitics. In the next five years, Taiwan will face increasingly severe security challenges as Chinese military threats continue to grow, transitioning from traditional military deterrence to a complex threat model covering legal, psychological, propaganda warfare, as well as blockades and coercion.
He emphasized that Taiwan must enhance its autonomous defense capabilities, strengthen democratic mechanisms, build economic resilience, deepen economic and security cooperation with democratic allies, and accelerate the construction of integrated defense capabilities from a “whole-of-society defense resilience” perspective to address China’s comprehensive threat challenges and the repercussions of US-China competition.