In recent years, despite China’s policy of allowing families to have up to three children, the marriage rate among young people continues to decline. This trend has resulted in a sharp decrease in newborns, leading to the closure of a large number of kindergartens across the country due to the inability to enroll new students. Statistics show that in 2024 alone, over 20,000 kindergartens closed down, leaving an average of over 600 teachers unemployed each day.
According to a statistical bulletin released by the Chinese Ministry of Education, the total number of kindergartens in the country decreased from 274,000 to 253,300 in 2024, with 21,100 closures within one year, including over 18,000 private kindergartens. Additionally, a report by a financial magazine revealed that in 2024, the number of kindergarten teachers in the country decreased by 241,800, equivalent to over 600 teachers losing their jobs every day.
Experts predict that around 26,000 kindergartens may close down in 2025, with the total number of kindergartens in the country possibly decreasing to around 163,700 by 2030, averaging 15,000 closures per year.
The wave of kindergarten closures has not spared even first-tier cities like Shenzhen in China. The principal of a “First-tier Kindergarten in Shenzhen” recently wrote that the kindergarten she founded closed its doors on July 31 this year.
“I have been a kindergarten principal in Shenzhen for 15 years, and now I am unemployed,” said the principal. After graduating with a degree in preschool education from Hunan Normal University in 2002, she started as a teacher in a newly opened private kindergarten in Nanshan, Shenzhen. She worked her way up from a teacher to vice-principal and finally became the principal.
In 2011, she took over a struggling kindergarten in a newly built area in Baoan. At that time, the kindergarten had less than 80 children, with monthly income not even covering half of the costs. She persevered and turned the failing kindergarten into a “First-tier Kindergarten in Shenzhen” through hard work and dedication, eventually having 416 children across 13 classes and over 60 staff members at its peak.
However, since 2022, enrolling students has become increasingly challenging. The principal mentioned, “In the past, we would start accepting pre-registrations six months in advance with parents rushing to enroll their children; now, one month before the start of the school year, we are still calling and sending messages, pleading with parents to come and visit.”
By 2023, the number of students in the kindergarten dropped from 380 to 168, leading to a sharp decrease in revenue and increasing costs, causing the kindergarten to experience losses for the first time.
In 2024, the group to which the kindergarten belongs began to sequentially close unprofitable kindergartens. It started with a high-end kindergarten in Futian, followed by a universal kindergarten in Nanshan, and finally, the “First-tier Kindergarten in Shenzhen” that she founded.
“For 15 years, I devoted my youth and passion to this kindergarten and these children. But now, I am an ‘unemployed’ principal,” she expressed. “For the past month, I have been contemplating where my future lies – continue being a principal? But private kindergartens in Shenzhen are closing one after another, and it’s difficult to enter public kindergartens. Change careers? But besides being a principal, I don’t know anything else.”
Ms. Wang, a former kindergarten principal in Gansu, also shared,”Many kindergartens are closing now. There are so few children, even public kindergartens can’t enroll enough students. It’s tough. The rent keeps increasing, so we ultimately decided to quit. Especially given this year’s situation, earning money has become difficult, and no one has it easy.”
A video posted by a verified tech blogger on Weibo showed the furniture of a kindergarten being moved outside, with the hallway in disarray. The principal, looking at the items being cleared out, lamented the struggles of many other principals.
On August 14, a blogger “Internet News Sister” posted that even public kindergartens are now affected by the wave of closures. A public kindergarten in Gu Lou District, Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu Province, closed its doors due to the inability to enroll students. “In the past, during the peak of childbirth, it was difficult to enroll in kindergartens and required connections everywhere. Now, it’s just not easy.”
The situation may worsen further. Scholars warn that if the current situation does not improve, there could be a wave of closures in primary schools, middle schools, high schools, and even universities in the future.
Blogger “Lin Doesn’t Want to Move” analyzed that the wave of kindergarten closures reflects the continued decline in the birth rate in China. Since 2016, the number of newborns has sharply decreased, primarily due to the high cost of living. With soaring housing prices and childcare costs consuming over 50% of household income, working women face a difficult choice between childbirth and their careers. Young people are not unwilling to have children but truly cannot afford to. The high costs suppress childbirth, leading to a vicious cycle of “cannot afford to have children – unwilling to have children.” If this trend continues, not only will the education industry be impacted, but challenges may also arise in pension payments and labor supply in the future.