According to a report by The Independent on September 18, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has issued a warning that solar activity is escalating beyond scientists’ predictions. This phenomenon is expected to lead to more solar storms, flares, and space weather events.
Solar activity typically follows an 11-year cycle, with the intensity decreasing steadily from the 1980s to 2008. Scientists had anticipated this trend to continue, projecting that the latest solar activity cycle would be at a historic low. However, a new study by NASA has revealed that since 2008, solar activity has been increasing.
In early September, NASA published the results of this study in the Astrophysical Journal, titled “The Sun Reversed its Decades-Long Weakening Trend in 2008.” This new research indicates that solar activity actually reversed around 2008, deviating from the anticipated trajectory and resulting in a significant increase in solar storms, flares, and coronal mass ejections.
At the beginning of the 21st century, astrophysicists believed that solar activity was entering a new “deep solar minimum period” as solar activity had been steadily declining since the 1980s.
Jamie Jasinski, from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory leading the study, stated that all signs point to the sun entering a long-term period of low activity. “So seeing this reversal of the trend is quite surprising, the sun is slowly waking up.”
The renowned American popular science and technology magazine, Popular Mechanics, published an article on September 19 titled “The Sun Should Have Been Asleep, But Alas, It Awakens ominously.” The article points out that the sun, composed of hydrogen and helium, is like a fiery furnace nurturing all life on Earth but also could pose significant risks.
The article notes that given the sun’s crucial role in our existence, scientists have been monitoring solar activity since the birth of modern telescopes. Galileo had already begun observing sunspots in the 17th century. Over time, scientists have come to understand various solar cycles, including the 11-year solar cycle and the 22-year Hale cycle.
NASA scientists analyzed data from two key space missions, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and the Wind mission. These two spacecraft, launched in the 1990s, detailedly observed and recorded ions (plasma) and high-energy particles flowing from the sun to Earth.
Though scientists have a fairly accurate grasp on the timing of solar activity cycles – predicting the next solar maximum to occur in October 2025, with the current 25th solar cycle still in its maximum phase – their predictions on the intensity of this solar activity cycle have notably missed the mark. According to Life Science magazine, the number of sunspots has reached a new high in 20 years, releasing a record number of X-class flares, the strongest category of solar flares.
Scientists point out that the enhanced solar activity’s biggest impact on Earth includes disruptions to communication systems, as coronal mass ejections (CME) and solar flares can cause radio interruptions, satellite damage, GPS errors, and even power grid failures.
During solar activity periods, the sun emits charged particles that disrupt Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field, producing intense auroras.
Moreover, certain aspects of solar activity cycles are challenging to predict reliably, making long-term trends even more challenging to track. Our records of solar minimum periods – thanks to extensive research on isotopes in ancient lakebed sediments dating back to 800 BCE, known as the Homeric Minimum – are just a fraction of the sun’s entire lifecycle.
Since the 17th century, astronomers have been tracking solar activity, with one of the longest abnormal periods occurring between 1790 and 1830 when the sun was in a quiet state.
“We truly do not understand why the sun experienced a 40-year minimum period starting in 1790,” said Dr. Jasinski. “Long-term trends are harder to predict, and we still do not fully comprehend them.”
Next week, NASA plans to launch three missions focusing on space weather research, starting with the launch of the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) to study solar winds.
Additionally, the Carruthers Geocorona Observatory will concentrate on Earth’s exosphere, its outermost atmospheric layer, and its reactions to solar climate.
Simultaneously, the NOAA’s SWFO-L1 will continuously measure solar winds to protect critical Earth infrastructure.
These research findings will be used to assess the impact of space weather events on spacecraft and astronaut safety, preparing for the Artemis program, aiming to return humans to the moon for the first time in over 50 years.
Many aspects of long-term solar fluctuations remain a mystery, and NASA’s new toolkit offers unprecedented opportunities for scientists to finally find some answers.