Taiwanese meteorological experts announced today (20th) that Typhoon Hua Jia Sha will approach the outskirts on the evening of the 21st and pass through the Bashi Channel from the 22nd to the 24th. The eastern and southern mountainous areas should be alert to the potential hazards of heavy rainfall. The Central Weather Bureau predicts that the average wind speed near the center of the typhoon poses a challenge to this year’s “Wind King,” with a probability of reaching or surpassing the record set by a previous typhoon. The southeastern region of Taiwan should be cautious of heavy rainfall hazards.
Associate Professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan pointed out in a column of the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation’s “Revealing Heaven’s Secrets Classroom” that according to the latest path potential prediction map of the Central Weather Bureau, Tropical Storm Mita weakened to a tropical depression after landing in Guangdong yesterday morning. Meanwhile, Typhoon Hua Jia Sha is the only typhoon posing a threat to Taiwan, as Typhoon Washi is far from the region and poses no danger.
Wu Derong mentioned that the latest European (ECMWF) ensemble model simulations of Hua Jia Sha’s movement are similar to the Central Weather Bureau’s path potential prediction map. The ensemble model indicates an average path passing through the Bashi Channel, with individual simulated paths scattered on either side, highlighting the uncertainty in its trajectory.
The Central Weather Bureau predicts that the average maximum wind speed near the center of Typhoon Hua Jia Sha will reach up to 48 meters per second, surpassing the records of previous typhoons such as Jianyu and Yangliu which had wind speeds of 43 meters per second. There is a probability of challenging this year’s “Wind King.” Due to the uncertainty in its trajectory, the focus will be on whether it poses a greater threat.
In addition, Wu mentioned that according to the latest European model simulations, due to the influence of the low-pressure circulation of moisture today, there may be occasional local brief rain showers in the Hualien and Taitung area, with a probability of thunderstorms or heavy rain showers in the western half later in the afternoon. Northern Taiwan is expected to remain hot during the daytime, with temperatures slightly decreasing elsewhere but still on the warmer side.
Wu stated that on the 21st, moisture will slightly decrease, leading to clear and hot weather across the island. In the afternoon, there may be local brief rain showers or thunderstorms in mountainous areas, extending to some flatlands. Starting from tomorrow evening, Typhoon Hua Jia Sha will approach the outskirts of Greater Taipei and Yilan, with rainfall expected.
He further mentioned that from the 22nd to the 24th, Typhoon Hua Jia Sha will pass through the Bashi Channel and enter the South China Sea. Significant rainfall is expected in Greater Taipei, the eastern region, and the southern regions successively, with the mountainous areas in the eastern and southern parts being cautious of heavy rainfall and consequent hazards. Southern Taiwan and coastal areas should also be wary of strong winds, with precautions against high winds and giant waves around Taiwan’s surrounding waters.
It is expected that by the 25th, Typhoon Hua Jia Sha will move away, with the eastern coast and Kaohsiung-Pingtung area expecting rainfall in the morning and improving weather in the afternoon. On the 26th, clear and hot weather is forecasted across the island, with a probability of local brief rain showers or thunderstorms in mountainous areas in the afternoon.